You mean silver and bronze.
You mean silver and bronze.
3:36jd wrote:
You mean silver and bronze.
Correct. So many runners, so many medals.
reedfischer? wrote:
mo fan wrote:
Rupp will run with the lead group at 2:12 pace until 10k to go. Then he will start running 4:30s and win it by 30 seconds at least. You heard it here first
Yeah he’s got no reason not to sit and kick. He’s got to be the clear favorite as long as that Achilles is really not bothering him (and there’s no indication it is). I think I like the chances of Fauble over Ward, but that’ll be an interesting duel.
Is Fauble healthy? His Strava shows no runs logged since Wednesday and only 27 miles total this week. I think he may be dealing with something. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he doesn't make the team
The ghost of meb wrote:
mo fan wrote:
Rupp will run with the lead group at 2:12 pace until 10k to go. Then he will start running 4:30s and win it by 30 seconds at least. You heard it here first
Clipping Walmsley's heels between miles 19-21!!
haha
I would take Ward before Fauble. Not everyone gets every marathon right. Ward does more often than most.
Really, I think there is a better chance one of the young guys has a breakthrough for 3rd than either of those two. I somehow doubt the old guys will. Maybe one will prove me wrong.
Noah Droddy has unfortunately withdrawn from the marathon trials.
baby shark wrote:
Jayordon wrote:
Connor McMillan should be in that list too. Placed 4th at the USA championships in the 10k in 2019. Later in 2019, he placed top 10 at NYC 2019. 2:13 in his professional marathon debut.
Out with stress fracture.
You sure? A week ago he was running well.
Good Knowledge!
blamb61 wrote:
baby shark wrote:
Out with stress fracture.
You sure? A week ago he was running well.
Did see that the post about McMillan was a mistake. Both Mantz and Young (Clayton) are injured. Ward, McMillan, Montanez are all in it still I believe (BYU alumni) and Linkletter is doing well and will try for the Canadian team I believe. Here is a training log for Ward with some talk of McMillan in it also.
https://www.podiumrunner.com/training/olympic-trials-training-5-weeks-out-jared-wards-log/?utm_medium=link&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=prfebfinallyransub17 wrote:
reedfischer? wrote:
Yeah he’s got no reason not to sit and kick. He’s got to be the clear favorite as long as that Achilles is really not bothering him (and there’s no indication it is). I think I like the chances of Fauble over Ward, but that’ll be an interesting duel.
Is Fauble healthy? His Strava shows no runs logged since Wednesday and only 27 miles total this week. I think he may be dealing with something. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he doesn't make the team
Fauble tends to backlog and update his runs a few days later at points. He’s a pretty transparent guy with training and racing.
GBohannon wrote:
baby shark wrote:
Odd with no mention of Bumbalough, Derrick, or even Stinson. Is Ritz racing?
I am not sure if this is a reply to me, but I did mention Bumby and Stinson. Not sure if Ritz is racing. If healthy, I believe he could be a threat. Same with Derrick.
Apologies. I skimmed it quickly and didn’t see that.
GBohannon wrote:
Dexy's Midnight Runner wrote:
Correct, Droddy announced he's out weeks ago.
Whoops. Thanks for the update.
Good call on adding Fischer. He had a nice result in Houston and a solid 10 miler. Plus, I like that group as do most LRCers, I think. Speaking of Tinman, what is the word on Brogan Austin? I think I read something about him on the forums recently but can’t remember what and a quick search proved fruitless. He was excellent at CIM in 2018 and gave that killer interview to LRC shortly thereafter. I’d love to see him contend.
Brogan ran 61:50 in Houstan after taking many months off from running due to injuries prior.
Also ran a 26 mile long run at 5:40 pace recently, so he’s getting fit when he needs to be.
Mr. OAR wrote:
finallyransub17 wrote:
Is Fauble healthy? His Strava shows no runs logged since Wednesday and only 27 miles total this week. I think he may be dealing with something. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he doesn't make the team
Fauble tends to backlog and update his runs a few days later at points. He’s a pretty transparent guy with training and racing.
In this interview from a couple of weeks ago, Fauble did not seem superconfident about how his training was going.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e8NLSRxfVUGBohannon wrote:
Dexy's Midnight Runner wrote:
I stopped reading after this leading mistruth. He has faltered in the second half of most of his marathons recently. Add the unknown of a new coach's system and this result solely provides proof of half-marathon fitness. Full stop.
As you were.
While I disagree, I do think this is a fair point regarding Rupp.
In my mind, all he had to do to “prove” that he is still the man to beat was demonstrate that he was at or near full health. Crushing two decent guys like he did over the final few miles was demonstration enough for me.
With that said, I admit that him DNFing in Chicago paired with the coaching change lend some credence to your viewpoint. He is a lock in my book though.
I do appreciate your response. To me, he looks closer to 2008 Meb than 2004 Meb or 2012 Meb. Been to a couple of Olympics already, has medal(s) in hand, hit a slump with significant injury downtime. Despite what most were saying about Meb for the OT in 2007, I thought he was toast. A big difference is that Meb had the coaching continuity that Rupp does not. That may ultimately make little difference, either way. Yet Rupp has done nothing in the past 9 months to be smartly considered a lock for even just top 3. The unknown creates intrigue, certainly. Anything can happen on race day. This also isn't 2007 where a Ryan Hall could just come in and run away from everyone after 10K. The true contenders will likely stay in a pack through at least 30K. Rupp won't have to push much early, can just sit on people like he did in LA, and shouldn't have to run out of his mind in the last 10K. It's more a matter of how his brittle body will handle that duration of effort over that sort of course, the type of course he hasn't handled well since Boston 2017.
Full disclosure: I'd rather not see Rupp make the team, so I can't be 100% confident my bias isn't influencing my view on this.
Where is the women's chattter? About a dozen women with realistic chances to make the team. I think the Big 4 on the men's side are gonna be pretty tough to beat.
Derrick injured himself at the Crim 10 miler not CIM.
Luke Puskedra making a comeback?
NERunner053 wrote:
Where is the women's chattter? About a dozen women with realistic chances to make the team. I think the Big 4 on the men's side are gonna be pretty tough to beat.
I will post a women’s thread this afternoon. I was going to last night, but got swept up in the excitement of Millrose and drank a couple too many beers to put together anything worthwhile.
Dexy's Midnight Runner wrote:
GBohannon wrote:
The Favorites /top seeds
Galen Rupp - His 61:19 this morning proves that he is still the man to beat.
I stopped reading after this leading mistruth. He has faltered in the second half of most of his marathons recently. Add the unknown of a new coach's system and this result solely provides proof of half-marathon fitness. Full stop.
As you were.
This is misleading. Lets review. In March 2018, Rupp ran 59:47 for a Half, solo most of the second half. He then dropped out of the terrible weather Boston, which most of the elite field did, then ran a 2:06:07 marathon a month later where he put a beat down on Sisay Lemma in the final two miles, putting 55 seconds into him.
In October 2018, Rupp still ran sub 2:06:30 with an injury that was already causing problems. He had a well publicized surgery and sat out a year. He tried to come back in Chicago where he was obviously struggling with his injury, still went through half in sub 63, and in fact made it to mile 23 before dropping out.
I don't think anything there suggests Rupp has trouble in the second half of marathons. In fact if you go back further, you will see the opposite is true.
If Rupp didn't injure his achilles with this run, then he is of course the man to beat for the trials.
Rupp is the favorite of most.
The ghost of meb wrote:
mo fan wrote:
Rupp will run with the lead group at 2:12 pace until 10k to go. Then he will start running 4:30s and win it by 30 seconds at least. You heard it here first
Clipping Walmsley's heels between miles 19-21!!
Cool story bro.