Guys and Girls NXN2019 Numbers, Predictions

yorerunner wrote:

Strongly agree that Methner is not being considered enough for the NXN boys crown. The IL state record he beat is incredibly legit (neither Derrick, Verzbickas, Withrow, or Donald Sage, among many others could beat it).

Likewise, although the transitive property is far from perfect, it's worth noting that Dillon Blake of Mundelein IL ran both Woodbridge and the IL state meet, going 14:28 at Woodbridge and 14:41 at Detweiller much later in the season. Very reasonable case to be made he is right there with Nico: can't wait til Saturday.

You said withrow

*dream on starts blasting*

Ballerness

Are you sure that the top three on the girls graph is correct

You have Katelyn Tuohy at 1650 going all the way up to over 18 minutes and you have Sydney thorvaldson starliper bro with much lower ranges doesn't make sense

Stopwatcher wrote:

Are you sure that the top three on the girls graph is correct

You have Katelyn Tuohy at 1650 going all the way up to over 18 minutes and you have Sydney thorvaldson starliper bro with much lower ranges doesn't make sense

If I understand this analysis it is factoring the results of every race by the runner this season and showing an "average" results along with a potential range based on what the runner has done. In Tuohy's case, recall for her season opener she ran the first race of the season along side some teammates and time wise was 3-4 minutes slower than she normally runs. The other runners may not have run a really slow time like that fir whatever reason. Also, if a runner steadily progresses throughout the season their average result will be worse than they are running at year end. Of course it would also show the opposite if someone slowed a lot.

I am sure it would be a lot of work, but it would be more useful to me to see just the last 3 races used for the comparison so we see what the runners are doing of late.

Light rain expected later today into tomorrow so the course will be soft but not a mud pit. Looking at last year's results, this course can make very good runners look not so very good, anything can happen in these conditions but ultimately touhys raw power will prevail. Team wise, nobody is a lock as the 3,4,5 runners can easily get eaten up by these conditions. California teams used to running on the dry hard-packed courses, don't see a California team winning boys or girls.

How do these conditions compare to last year? California ran real well last year. Just curious.

pre diktor wrote:

How do these conditions compare to last year? California ran real well last year. Just curious.

My thought without looking at real data is that conditions will be better this year, as there has been no rain lately, though it is supposed to start tonight. Last year there had been days of rain before the race I think. The boys race is also first this year, which only helps to improve conditions for them whereas last year they were second. It is supposed to be raining harder during this race though as last year the rain had largely stopped by race time.

Methner to win here and next week at the real national championship - Footlocker.

fastTuohy wrote:

pre diktor wrote:

How do these conditions compare to last year? California ran real well last year. Just curious.

My thought without looking at real data is that conditions will be better this year, as there has been no rain lately, though it is supposed to start tonight. Last year there had been days of rain before the race I think. The boys race is also first this year, which only helps to improve conditions for them whereas last year they were second. It is supposed to be raining harder during this race though as last year the rain had largely stopped by race time.

I think CA teams struggle at NXN more when they are expected to finish mid-pack overall. If you’re expected to podium that means your guys are all in the front half of even front 1/3 of the race where you aren’t bogged down nearly as much as being in the back half.

runnerexpert wrote:

Light rain expected later today into tomorrow so the course will be soft but not a mud pit. Looking at last year's results, this course can make very good runners look not so very good, anything can happen in these conditions but ultimately touhys raw power will prevail. Team wise, nobody is a lock as the 3,4,5 runners can easily get eaten up by these conditions. California teams used to running on the dry hard-packed courses, don't see a California team winning boys or girls.

1/10

atlas_ran wrote:

Methner to win here and next week at the real national championship - Footlocker.

If he wins here, he will romp over the B listers (+ Patrick Anderson and Grayson Morris) at FL.

I don't have any opinions as part of my data analysis.

Good question. The ranges show standard deviations from this season's performances. As you suggested, runners who drop very low on this chart can run very fast, and the large error bars show that they ran races at big ranges of performance during the season (both fast and slow). Runners with very tight standard deviations are very consistent.

The best of the best runners often have big standard deviations, because they don't need to run their fastest to win at many races.

The lack of rain this year is a huge question mark, as you rightly mentioned, because there has never been this little rain the week of NXN. This could lead to HUGE course record times this year. It is supposed to rain on Saturday, but the course should have less muddy conditions than in all other Glendoveer races.

Creaky Bones wrote:

atlas_ran wrote:

Methner to win here and next week at the real national championship - Footlocker.

If he wins here, he will romp over the B listers (+ Patrick Anderson and Grayson Morris) at FL.

I hope he wins here and loses at FL lol.

FL>>NXN for me even though this year nxn's boys field is obviously stronger. The format of footlocker is still way better to me though.

runnerexpert wrote:

Light rain expected later today into tomorrow so the course will be soft but not a mud pit. Looking at last year's results, this course can make very good runners look not so very good, anything can happen in these conditions but ultimately touhys raw power will prevail. Team wise, nobody is a lock as the 3,4,5 runners can easily get eaten up by these conditions. California teams used to running on the dry hard-packed courses, don't see a California team winning boys or girls.

Arcadia CA boys won in twice in muddy years at Portland Meadows, and Glendoveer doesn't get to be quite the same mudpit. I don't think we'll see a California girls team win, but then again they would have been long shots regardless. On the boys side, however, I wouldn't count out either of the California AQ teams as being among the title contenders regardless of course conditions. The downside is that, IF they don't win, people on here will probably blame the weather instead of realizing that there are some other very good teams this year.

westsouthrunner wrote:

Creaky Bones wrote:

If he wins here, he will romp over the B listers (+ Patrick Anderson and Grayson Morris) at FL.

I hope he wins here and loses at FL lol.

FL>>NXN for me even though this year nxn's boys field is obviously stronger. The format of footlocker is still way better to me though.

For the top runner, I think NXN is a tougher race due to the much larger field and amount of top competition. And the boys field at NXN has been much stronger for several years now. And don't even talk about the girls.

Math mayhem wrote:

Creaky Bones wrote:

Honestly I think Sprout can beat Young if Young does all the work leading the entire race. Reverse of their Arcadia 3200.

Leading at Glendoveer is a lot different than leading on a track. There is virtually no drafting advantage to be had by Sprout by letting Young lead the race because he’s not going to be directly behind Young. Leading at Glendoveer is the best place to be assuming one isn’t running over their capacity.

That's the problem, though. The field he is running against is good enough that he can't drop them without running "over their capacity", so "going out hard" would mean he leads by a couple meters at most. Meanwhile, I'd disagree that there isn't a notable advantage in NOT leading a race whether it's on the track or over hill and dale. If you're leading and break away, then yes that's a benefit as long as you can maintain that. But if you don't break away, and the chase pack isn't struggling to find good footing, I don't think there is any real advantage - and in this field, that is going to be the case.

The race will be won in the last kilometer or MAYBE the last 2 kilometers. None of the potential winners are going to fall off in the first 3k, and probably not the first 4k.

I'll agree with the prediction that Young makes a move towards the start of the last mile to try to break away and that's when we find out if he's going to be able hold off Sprout, Schoppe, Methner, etc. ... if he actually gets a gap that far out, he has a shot.

4:40/9:35 and then someone makes a move around 3500 m. It will be fast.

I guess different people feel differently, unsurprisingly. Personally, I prefer to lead because then it’s the tempo I want to set.