Guys and Girls NXN2019 Numbers, Predictions

When is the race?

its Saturday. the website says 10;05 am is boys and 10;35 girls but I'm guessing that's Portland Time which is PT so its 1;05 ET and 1;35 ET

Girls is 11:35 not 10:35 so it would be 2:35 PM ET

How is CA’s Klos ahead of Smith?

fastTuohy wrote:

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2019/HighestSpeedRatings.htm#Girls

Yeah this is my point. Why would Klos be ahead of Smith?

Despite what speed ratings may suggest, anyone who can break a Craig Virgin record and run faster on the same course as Lukas Verzbicus & Chris Derrick deserves my vote.

So: Josh Methner for the Win, Nico Young to Place, Cole Sprout to Show

Exactly. Finally someone realizes that a person who can break that detweiller record is no joke.

I just want to point out how historic this 2020 class is. Nico breaking the national 3 mile record in 13:39, Methner breaking a 47 year old record in Illinois, Sprout Breaking many track records like Drew Hunters 2 mile and 3K class records, 2 8:40 3200 runners as juniors, Schoppe and Daschbach running 14:14. Graydon Morris making 4 straight foot locker nationals. I haven't even mentioned Evan Holland, Matt Strangio, Cruz Culpepper. History will be made these next two weeks and this track season. I think the NXN course record will be gone, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see many sub 4s from this class this spring. Nico,Sprout,Daschbach, Holland, Strangio, Schoppe, and Culpepper all have a shot to do it. I honestly think a 8:30 3200 is duable for Nico and possibly Sprout.

Amen! There's usually 1-3 guys who separate themselves as favorites, but this year there are really up to 10 guys who have a chance to win. There's even guys right below the level you mention from New England, PA/NJ, NY, VA, GA that make this an incredibly deep class. Arcadia and NBON etc. should produce some amazing performances this year. The state of distance running in the union is excellent.

Agree with posts above. Extraordinary senior distance boys class this school year. Very much reminds me of the Ritz-Webb-Hall class of 2000-2001 but much deeper in talent beyond the top three.

Not based upon speed ratings but rather just observing times & results, appears that Methner, Young, Daschbach, and Sprout are four historically great US high school harriers.

In head-to-head this year, Daschbach beat Sprout by 2 secs then soon afterwards Young beat Daschbach by 2 secs. Both races were national-level record setters as stated above.

Really unfortunate that Daschbach had to cut his season short due to injury and won't be at NXN or FL. However, happy to see he realized his overarching goal of helping his team win its state championship.

Methner, for all his accomplishments, almost seems like an undiscussed "x" factor here. He doesn't have the track credentials from last spring as the others have; i.e., he didn't run Arcadia or break 9 min for 2m/3200m so wasn't on the national radar coming into this fall. On top of which, the list of top boys this fall is very much West-centric; Josh is the only top guy from East of the Mississippi so hasn't raced the other top names everyone's been talking about.

However, in running 13:49 at Detweiller Park he broke Craig Virgin's most revered xc record. With a nod to Gerry Lindgren and a tip-of-the-hat to Dathan Ritzenhein, Craig is arguably the greatest high school cross country runner in US history.

Come Saturday, we will have the pleasure of possibly watching the equivalent of three Craig Virgins racing each other at the same time.

Strongly agree that Methner is not being considered enough for the NXN boys crown. The IL state record he beat is incredibly legit (neither Derrick, Verzbickas, Withrow, or Donald Sage, among many others could beat it).

Likewise, although the transitive property is far from perfect, it's worth noting that Dillon Blake of Mundelein IL ran both Woodbridge and the IL state meet, going 14:28 at Woodbridge and 14:41 at Detweiller much later in the season. Very reasonable case to be made he is right there with Nico: can't wait til Saturday.

*reasonable case for Methner, that is

Bower Man wrote:

Despite what speed ratings may suggest, anyone who can break a Craig Virgin record and run faster on the same course as Lukas Verzbicus & Chris Derrick deserves my vote.

So: Josh Methner for the Win, Nico Young to Place, Cole Sprout to Show

Look at the guys that finished behind Methner that day at the state meet. They were 25 and 30 seconds back. Their 3200/1600 season bests for 2018 were 9:18/4:27 and 9:15/4:22. Methner ran 9:02/4:13. Unless all 3 of these guys made equally massive jumps in performance I would say the course was running extremely fast at the state meet.

Very unlikely Methner is at the same level as Young.

I think there could be some surprises in the top 10 or even top 5. I know that the California guys and Sprout are unbelievable and top of the class but will be interesting to see how the guys from the rest of the country stack up. You have to look at Schoope from TX, Blanks from GA and Murphy from NJ. If you look at their body of work all are very impressive and I think will impact this race.

#Man wrote:

Bower Man wrote:

Despite what speed ratings may suggest, anyone who can break a Craig Virgin record and run faster on the same course as Lukas Verzbicus & Chris Derrick deserves my vote.

So: Josh Methner for the Win, Nico Young to Place, Cole Sprout to Show

Look at the guys that finished behind Methner that day at the state meet. They were 25 and 30 seconds back. Their 3200/1600 season bests for 2018 were 9:18/4:27 and 9:15/4:22. Methner ran 9:02/4:13. Unless all 3 of these guys made equally massive jumps in performance I would say the course was running extremely fast at the state meet.

Very unlikely Methner is at the same level as Young.

I see your point, but A) there is zero doubt that Methner is much faster than that 9:02 and B), if you want to use the gap between him and the rest of the field as a barometer, it doesn't completely hurt his case; the aforementioned Mundelein kid who ran Woodbridge was 48 seconds back from Nico and 52 behind Methner at IL state. Even if the course was running fast, all that it would prove in this admittedly very narrow scenario is that Woodbridge runs even faster still.

Either way, no one will have to speculate much longer, race is nearly upon us

Look a bit deeper. He beat some 9:0X guys by 40 seconds in that race. Methner also won NXR and Footlocker regionals beating some guys who finished very high at NXN and Footlocker last year.

Sprout and Young will start strong, surge, and then separate from the rest by mile 3.

Young will outkick Sprout unless Sprout can get big gap at 4k.

Both will break course record. Maybe more do too.

Strangio, 3rd. The others overcook themselves trying to keep up.

This will be the best NXN ever and for years to come.

Agree with Liam Anderson's 14:57 CR being broken and likely by several runners regardless of course conditions.

Looks like it's been dry in Portland the past few days but rain predicted for Friday & Saturday . . . par for the course.

The course is all grass so it will be soggy but likely few mud holes to slog thru, if any.

For reference, here are place results for the returning boys who finished top-20 in last year's race:

3 Cole Sprout

4 Nico Young

5 Easton Allred

8 Matt Strangio

10 Connor Ohlson

15 Josh Methner

16 Evan Holland

18 Nathan Green

20 Evan Bishop