When I see Korir doing so well, I immediately think of his shadow, Shadrack Kipchirchir (which in Swahili means "Shadow of Korir"...little known fact). Has he made any moves to qualifying for Atlanta? Houston this weekend?
When I see Korir doing so well, I immediately think of his shadow, Shadrack Kipchirchir (which in Swahili means "Shadow of Korir"...little known fact). Has he made any moves to qualifying for Atlanta? Houston this weekend?
Lagot Milk wrote:
Hardloper wrote:
I would
Why though? He's run 2:12 already and is an exceedingly talented runner. Suppose he takes one more small step in marathon fitness/training since the 2:12, the pace is slow at the trials, and he picks off someone in the final half mile for third place.
Kipchoge is probably the same age as Lagat and is crushing everyone. Crazier things have happened. Being shocked at such an outcome is for the layman.
1) There’s nothing to support them being the same age.
2) Lagat hasn’t run the lifetime volume that Kipchoge has.
3) Kipchoge didn’t run 3:26.
Korir, Lagat and someone else will make the olympic marathon team.
Lagot Milk wrote:
Hardloper wrote:
I would
Why though? He's run 2:12 already and is an exceedingly talented runner. Suppose he takes one more small step in marathon fitness/training since the 2:12, the pace is slow at the trials, and he picks off someone in the final half mile for third place.
Kipchoge is probably the same age as Lagat and is crushing everyone. Crazier things have happened. Being shocked at such an outcome is for the layman.
Lagat is only the 16th fastest marathoner in the US in 2019. There are too many guys who are better and he's not getting younger. Furthermore, the idea that he'll have more finishing speed in a slow race is silly, that's not how marathons work. Also LOL if you think Eliud Kipchoge is 45 years old.
1. Ward
2. Lagat
3. Walmsley
Hardloper wrote:
Les wrote:
I wonder if Rupp would call it a career if he fails to make the Olympic team.
I think he'll stick around for the 2021 world championships in Eugene at least
How is the World Championships team going to be determined? Is a specific race going to be the qualifier? Or do they pick the team just based on time?
FFF wrote:
Rupp is now in the timespan Salazar encountered in mid-83, when the world ran away from him at Rotterdam, and something was clearly wrong.
His Fukuoka moment will come in the race he attempts to run before the Trials, but things will also go sideways.
Then at the trials, the mighty Rupp will find he's not even the fastest American. The more things change.
https://postimg.cc/H8cw4xgv
Not the same comparison at all. Salazar was competing against non-Americans in Rotterdam and Fukuoka, both 1983 races. He handily pulled away in the 84 Trials but was caught by Pete just before the finish line. Rupp won't be in that position.
Rupp, coming off a serious surgery and running with the leaders, all non-Americans, is a terrible comparison.
Rupp could go out harder than most in Atlanta and survive with 1st or 2nd. Besides what Korir just did, no one is within 3 minutes of Rupp.
When Salazar ran the Trials and his NY races & Boston, he was not anywhere near 3 minutes ahead of the closest American.
If Rupp is even remotely close to being healthy, he's a shoe in for the team (and he will be if it the surgery is 100% healed). Korir is a solid top 3 unless he does something unwise in the early miles.
After that, Fauble, Ward, Biwott, Stinson, Ritzenhein, and literally 5 other guys from the Chicago results could be on the team. Whoever is feeling their Cheerios that day could make it.
But comparing Rupp now to Salazar then is like comparing Apples to Dirt.
And yes, Lagat will have a solid chance. It's all who's "on" that day, February 29th, 2020.
Rupp should follow Desi's 2016 trials race plan. Go out conservative and work his way up to top three.
Apples 2 Dirt wrote:
Rupp could go out harder than most in Atlanta and survive with 1st or 2nd. Besides what Korir just did, no one is within 3 minutes of Rupp.
If Rupp had even been able to finish Chicago, there would have been many Americans within 3 minutes of him in that race alone.
nerinxer wrote:
Apples 2 Dirt wrote:
Rupp could go out harder than most in Atlanta and survive with 1st or 2nd. Besides what Korir just did, no one is within 3 minutes of Rupp.
If Rupp had even been able to finish Chicago, there would have been many Americans within 3 minutes of him in that race alone.
Ummm yeah, but you must have missed the part about him having surgery and obviously not being 100%. Look at Rupp's previous marathons. They are not in his class, period.
Not sure why we are so quick to forget how many more championship results Rupp has compared to anyone else in the field. Even if we completely ignore his track results:
-He walked away from the field at the trials in 2016 in his debut marathon
-Ran with the best in the world in Rio and finished with a bronze medal
-Was in contention deep into Boston before finishing second in 2017
-Won Chicago in 2017
-Barely missed the American record for 13.1 and became second american under 60 in 2018
-Ran 2:06 twice including Chicago 2018
He is coming off of a significant surgery but that was over a year ago and he has four more months to tune before the trials. He is 33, not 43, he is younger than Kipchoge, there is no reason to believe he can't get back to peak form. But even if he doesn't, he will have no problem running top 3 at the trials. There just isn't anyone else who is in his ballpark.
Apples 2 Dirt wrote:
nerinxer wrote:
If Rupp had even been able to finish Chicago, there would have been many Americans within 3 minutes of him in that race alone.
Ummm yeah, but you must have missed the part about him having surgery and obviously not being 100%. Look at Rupp's previous marathons. They are not in his class, period.
I didn't miss it. You said no one "is" within 3 minutes of Rupp. Not no one was, nor no one would be.
If I were betting Rupp vs the field FTW at the trials after this fall marathon season I would choose Rupp without a doubt. Honestly his Chicago performance gives me confidence he’ll be ready for Atlanta. He clearly wasn’t 100% but if he was only racing Americans and Korir was in the race they would have been very close. Give him 4 more months and its no contest.
Les wrote:
Hardloper wrote:
I think he'll stick around for the 2021 world championships in Eugene at least
How is the World Championships team going to be determined? Is a specific race going to be the qualifier? Or do they pick the team just based on time?
If it's like every other year it's based on fastest times
Well, I believe that what is “supposed” to happen is that the USATF are to put on a race and the top 3 finishers are to be placed on the Olympic team.
Stinson for 3rd with 2:10 low-mid
We are not looking at the Atlanta course close enough. US men did very well in Chicago but I bet will won't see as great of performances from most those men in Atlanta. Ward and Fauble are strength runners and will benefit from that.
cbenson4 wrote:
Stinson for 3rd with 2:10 low-mid
I bet 3rd place will be a lot slower than that
Lagat will not make top 3, more likely DNF.