Why do the Kenyan men now "suck" at the 5000?

rojo wrote:

Coevett wrote:

The decline in Kenyan 5K times is astonishing, and it has an obvious explanation.

In 2000 Kenya had 8 men under 13 minutes. In 2010, they also had 8 men under 13 minutes. In the last THREE seasons (2016/17/18) they had just two men barely under 13 minutes (both 12:59).

I assume you are saying that the obvious explanation is drug testing.

But that doesn't explain why Ethiopia is still good (or are you saying the testing isn't good there). I do think Ethiopia gets a free pass and I've heard testing wasn't good there.

That may change with the new state of the art WADA-accredited lab in Nairobi; Pathologists Lancet Kenya (PLK). They went operational last fall and they'll do sampling not only for Kenya but for Ethiopia, Uganda & Tanzania.

Informative news story on the lab:

And what are your thoughts on 9/11?

Check out the documentary Gun Runners on Netflix. Life is hard with lots of pressure

https://www.netflix.com/title/80124947

Joplas wrote:

Also patriotism runs deeper in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian people respect and appreciate their athletes a lot more than in Kenya where the general population can't even recognize their Olympic gold medalists.

Kenyans athletes are far more driven by money than by patriotism. Which is why Kenyans follow the money a lot more than Ethiopians do. And as many have stated, there is more money on the roads.

Money vs patriotism is also why a Kenyan is far more likely to defect to Bahrain, Qatar, Turkey, USA or whichever country offers him better economic prospects. Ethiopian runners defect to other countries at a far lower rate than Kenyans . Many Ethiopians who defected actually did it because they were refugees or new residents in that country. Many Kenyans who run for Bahrain and Qatar still live in Kenya.

This is definitely one of the more accurate and informed posts I have read of late in relation to the difference between Kenya/Ethiopia.

Of course both Kenyans and Ethiopians generally herald from a lower socioeconomic level than runners from western societies, so of course a motivator is to raise themselves out of poverty. Those posters ignorant enough to lump Ethiopia and Kenya as the same country operating the same way with the entire respective populace’s Sharing the exact same ideology and loyalties are simply displaying total arrogance and ignorance of two very differing and independently operating countries.

Jo72 wrote:

So the Kenyan 5k pool is "drained" in favor of steeple, middle distance and marathon. Marathon is also true for Ethiopia, but they never had such an 800/1500/steeple tradition as Kenya, so more end up at the 5k/10k.

Could you clarify what you mean?

In 2000/01/02 Kenya had in the :

Steeplechase 2 men under 8:00, 6 men under 8:05

800m 2 men under 1:43, 15 men under 1:45

1500m 3 men under 3:30, 9 men under 3:32

In 2016/17/18 Kenya had in the :

Steeplechase No men under 8:00, 2 men under 8:05

800m 3 men under 1:43, 17 men under 1:45 (*3 have been busted)

1500m 3 men under 3:30, 4 men under 3:32 (*1 has been busted)

If you want to use the argument that the reason is that Kenyan talent has gone to the roads, then that's one thing, but to suggest that other track events are syphoning of 5K talent only makes the decline of times in the 1500 and steeplechase even more apparent.

As you see above, the only event which hasn't declined is the 800m, but if you took out the athletes caught doping last year, then elite Kenyan performances in the last 3 years would be almost identical to those in the 3 years from 2000-02. And of course, the population of Kenya has risen by well over 50% in that time.

What's more likely is that roads have played a part, but at least as big a reason is better testing (and of course less testing on the roads is probably a factor as to why top talents are choosing the roads)

And of course, let's remember that the recent guys have the advantage of Monaco (which had it's new track laid in 2010 an immediately started producing ultra-fast times). If you took out Monaco, the decline in times would be bordering on the absurd, and likely to decline even more absurdly over the next several years).

Interesting analysis.

On the busted athletes Bett is the obvious one in the 800 but who are the other two? Are you counting Rotich as one of them from the incident with his coach at Rio? But I can't figure out the third one - was it a doping positive that I missed out on?

Test 123ABC wrote:

Jo72 wrote:

So the Kenyan 5k pool is "drained" in favor of steeple, middle distance and marathon. Marathon is also true for Ethiopia, but they never had such an 800/1500/steeple tradition as Kenya, so more end up at the 5k/10k.

Could you clarify what you mean?

I mean that while Kenya was and is very good at many events, their "core events" where they have the longest and strongest tradition does not necessarily include the 5k. More money on the roads gives large incentives for not running track at all. And on track the strongest Kenyan event is the steeple. Almost every steeplechase would also be a very good 5000m runner but apparently Kenyans prefer the steeple and they are stronger there (actually dominant since several decades).

Ethiopia has few strong steeplers and far fewer middle distance (800/1500 as opposed to 1500/5000) runners.

If you look at the world's top 20 of last year, Kenya dominates 800m (9/20), 10000m (10/20) and steeple (11/20) and is very strong in the 1500 (6/20). On the road the Kenyans had 25/50 in the Marathon and 30/50 in the half marathon...

In the 5k the have 3/20, so this is in fact rather weak (although if Chelimo was still with Kenya, they would be only behind the Ethiopians).

Jo72 wrote:

If you look at the world's top 20 of last year, Kenya dominates 800m (9/20), 10000m (10/20) and steeple (11/20) and is very strong in the 1500 (6/20). On the road the Kenyans had 25/50 in the Marathon and 30/50 in the half marathon...

In the 5k the have 3/20, so this is in fact rather weak (although if Chelimo was still with Kenya, they would be only behind the Ethiopians).

And one of them was Cyrus Rutto.

Kenyans On The Sauce wrote:

Interesting analysis.

On the busted athletes Bett is the obvious one in the 800 but who are the other two? Are you counting Rotich as one of them from the incident with his coach at Rio? But I can't figure out the third one - was it a doping positive that I missed out on?

Thanks. I didn't count Rotich, despite that incident and the fact he is/was the training partner of Bett. One of them was Kiprop, the other's name I can't remember (and it was after Bett), but El K denied he was elite even though he'd represented Kenya at the world indoors.

Joplas wrote:Also patriotism runs deeper in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian people respect and appreciate their athletes a lot more than in Kenya where the general population can't even recognize their Olympic gold medalists.

The best Ethiopians are Oromo. Their patriotic feelings are, to put it mildly, mixed.

No comprende wrote:

What? So you're saying the Ethiopians who dominate the 5000 now are so dumb that they don't see they could make a ton more money in the marathon?

As has been pointed out for 20 years, it's much more difficult for Ethiopian runners to get abroad to race. Foreign agents don't run amok in Ethiopia signing up anyone with a scrap of potential to run B and C list races in Europe. There are also diplomatic reasons. Ethiopian passports are among the least "powerful" in the world, and the government does not do a lot to help athletes get visas. Obviously the proven quantities can still get to whatever races they want, but without a bigger pool of unproven athletes, there are fewer chances for people to have a breakthrough when they get to low altitude against top competition.

Jo72 wrote:

If you look at the world's top 20 of last year, Kenya dominates 800m (9/20), 10000m (10/20) and steeple (11/20) and is very strong in the 1500 (6/20). On the road the Kenyans had 25/50 in the Marathon and 30/50 in the half marathon...

In the 5k the have 3/20, so this is in fact rather weak (although if Chelimo was still with Kenya, they would be only behind the Ethiopians).

Yes, but all (men) slower than during the EPO and Diack era, despite all the advances in training + technology + nutrition. Like the rest of the world on the track, actually.

Coevett, population rise of 50% from 2002 means that those are babies/children, and not yet ready for competition, so the 50% population rise is an irrelevant red herring. We could say the same about European running. Here is the 1500m, with 3/10 being run in the 1980s with zero testing; 5/10 being run in the peak of EPO; and only 2/10 run within the last decade. 1 3:28.81 Mo FARAH 23 MAR 1983 GBR Monaco (MON) 19 JUL 2013 2 3:28.95 Fermín CACHO 16 FEB 1969 ESP Zürich (SUI) 13 AUG 1997 3 3:28.98 Mehdi BAALA 17 AUG 1978 FRA Bruxelles (BEL) 05 SEP 2003 4 3:29.67 Steve CRAM 14 OCT 1960 GBR Nice (FRA) 16 JUL 1985 5 3:29.77 Sebastian COE 29 SEP 1956 GBR Rieti (ITA) 07 SEP 1986 6 3:30.01 Filip INGEBRIGTSEN 20 APR 1993 NOR Monaco (MON) 20 JUL 2018 7 3:30.07 Rui SILVA 03 AUG 1977 POR Monaco (Mon) 19 JUL 2002 8 3:30.33 Ivan HESHKO 19 AUG 1979 UKR Bruxelles (BEL) 03 SEP 2004 9 3:30.57 Reyes ESTÉVEZ 02 AUG 1976 ESP Sevilla (ESP) 24 AUG 1999 10 3:30.77 Steve OVETT 09 OCT 1955 GBR Rieti (ITA) 04 SEP 1983 The 800m shares a similar story with 3/10 from the 1980s; 5/10 in the peak EPO; and 2/10 in the last decade - 1 1:41.11 Wilson KIPKETER 12 DEC 1972 DEN Köln (GER) 24 AUG 1997 2 1:41.73 Sebastian COE 29 SEP 1956 GBR Firenze (ITA) 10 JUN 1981 3 1:42.47 Yuriy BORZAKOVSKIY 12 APR 1981 RUS Bruxelles (BEL) 24 AUG 2001 4 1:42.51 Amel TUKA 09 JAN 1991 BIH Monaco (MON) 17 JUL 2015 5 1:42.53 Pierre-Ambroise BOSSE 11 MAY 1992 FRA Monaco (MON) 18 JUL 2014 6 1:42.55 André BUCHER 19 OCT 1976 SUI Zürich (SUI) 17 AUG 2001 7 1:42.58 Vebjørn RODAL 16 SEP 1972 NOR Atlanta, GA (USA) 31 JUL 1996 8 1:42.88 Steve CRAM 14 OCT 1960 GBR Zürich (SUI) 21 AUG 1985 9 1:42.97 Peter ELLIOTT 09 OCT 1962 GBR Sevilla (ESP) 30 MAY 1990 10 1:43.15 Mehdi BAALA 17 AUG 1978 FRA Rieti (ITA) 08 SEP 2002 So I don't see Kenya as an outlier to this conversation.

Coevett wrote:

bove, the only event which hasn't declined is the 800m, but if you took out the athletes caught doping last year, then elite Kenyan performances in the last 3 years would be almost identical to those in the 3 years from 2000-02. And of course, the population of Kenya has risen by well over 50% in that time.

What's more likely is that roads have played a part, but at least as big a reason is better testing (and of course less testing on the roads is probably a factor as to why top talents are choosing the roads)

God you'e dumb. The population of Kenya has been increasing at the same rate for decades. That means there are 50% more 18 to 30 year olds.

If anything, the young population of Kenya has gone up more than 50%.

Please link where I've said Cacho was clean or 'European' runners like Farah and Mahdi Baha.

Try harder next time.

edumucated wrote:

We could say the same about European running. Here is the 1500m, with 3/10 being run in the 1980s with zero testing; 5/10 being run in the peak of EPO; and only 2/10 run within the last decade.

Of course the Europeans also suffer from increased testing.

Facts:

The two fastest 800 m runners, and the 2nd fastest over 1500 (only surpassed by Sir Doorbell pulled by the talented Kiprop in Monaco), and the fastest 5000 m runner are all from the last millenium.

That becomes even more obvious when looking at the women.

Coach C wrote:

Because they are smart enough to realize that the track 5k/10k are dying. This why Mo dominated those events for a decade but now is an after thought on the roads.

Exactly. Mohamed Farah is overrated.

He didn't have to face as much pressure from young, talented Kenyans.

Haile Gebrselassie said, "Immediately Farah punched them and kicked them by foot. Especially the husband. There were lots of witnesses. He cannot deny it because there was enough people inside the gym who saw the action."

"Mo Farah publishes his autobiography, 'Twin Ambitions' and confirms that he has, by 2013, known Jama Aden for a considerable amount of time." Mohamed Farah lied about his relationship with Coach Aden.

Joplas wrote:

Money vs patriotism is also why a Kenyan is far more likely to defect to Bahrain, Qatar, Turkey, USA or whichever country offers him better economic prospects. Ethiopian runners defect to other countries at a far lower rate than Kenyans . Many Ethiopians who defected actually did it because they were refugees or new residents in that country. Many Kenyans who run for Bahrain and Qatar still live in Kenya.

There were some top performing Ethiopians imported to other countries (most notably Turkey) who served bans for doping:

Alemitu Bekele/Turkey (ABP violation)

Erdogan/Turkey (ABP violation)

Bezabeh/Spain (Operation Galgo)

And the worst case yet is Ethiopian Elvan Abeylegesse running for Turkey. She held the 5000 WR at one time (2004) and went on to take silver in both the 5 & 10 at Beijing. Her samples from Beijing were re-tested and found positive for doping and both medals were stripped. What an embarrassment for Turkey Athletics!

Coevett wrote:

God you'e dumb. The population of Kenya has been increasing at the same rate for decades. That means there are 50% more 18 to 30 year olds.

If anything, the young population of Kenya has gone up more than 50%.

Please link where I've said Cacho was clean or 'European' runners like Farah and Mahdi Baha.

Try harder next time.

You said it nearly doubled from 2003 to now when it's really gone up 53%. I know math and thinking critically are difficult for you, but try harder next time.