Why do the Kenyan men now "suck" at the 5000?

Not a complete explanation, but maybe some factors:

- the oldest Kenian dominance event is the steeple, so many the best 5k runners are running steeple

- the second oldest Kenian dominance event is the 1500, with very strong 800m runners as well, so more of the faster guys focus on middle distance

- the area where the most money is today is road running/marathon, so the somewhat slower guys go there

So the Kenyan 5k pool is "drained" in favor of steeple, middle distance and marathon. Marathon is also true for Ethiopia, but they never had such an 800/1500/steeple tradition as Kenya, so more end up at the 5k/10k.

Look at the roads. Literally.

Not sure running on the track is the best plan when it comes to making sure the ABP doesn't get a handle on you.

Best off hiding away, winning a couple of road races and then disappearing for a while again with your 'hard earned' winnings.

Because they are smart enough to realize that the track 5k/10k are dying. This why Mo dominated those events for a decade but now is an after thought on the roads.

Less testing on the roads, which is changing now and we're seeing the inevitable busts.

But if it was simply a matter of the top Kenyan talent going to the roads, it's funny that the top Kenyan marathoner and world record holding GOAT is a 5000m runner from the early 2000s. I mean, if the best long distance talents in Kenya over the last ten years have been going straight into road running, it seems a bizarre co-incidence to say the least that the guy miles ahead of the rest of them reached his peak in the 5000 in 2003/2004 at 18/19 and only switched to the roads 5 years ago.

Kipchoge can run 2:01 and aim for sub 2 hours but only 2 other Kenyans ran under 2:05 last year?

So the population of Kenya has nearly doubled since Kipchoge beat El G and Bekele as an 18 year old, but with all the talent going to the roads since then, they can't find anyone like him, and the guy who might have been it (Kiptum) got busted?

And are Kenyans so much more dominant on the roads than Ethiopians? Last year Ethiopia had 10 of the top 13 marathoners by time, and Kenya just two. Yet Ethiopians are still producing 5000 talents that appear to be on the same rank as the Bekele/Kipchoge generation.

As for the poster claiming that 5K talents are also moving down to middle-distance that's absolutely garbage. Seems the trend is for Kenyan 400m runners to switch to the 800, and fast 800 type guys to move up to the 1500. Even Elijah Manangoi was a 400m runner until Bernard Ouma found him.

The decline in Kenyan 5K times is astonishing, and it has an obvious explanation.

In 2000 Kenya had 8 men under 13 minutes. In 2010, they also had 8 men under 13 minutes. In the last THREE seasons (2016/17/18) they had just two men barely under 13 minutes (both 12:59).

I wish I could be an afterthought like him.

Off the source. Or more accurately, on reduced dosages now. Same with the Moroccans, btw, but people can't control the Ethiopians as much (yet).

Coach C wrote:

Because they are smart enough to realize that the track 5k/10k are dying. This why Mo dominated those events for a decade but now is an after thought on the roads.

Not hugely relevant. Whether anyone watches or not is a bit of an afterthought.

Their only concern (or more realistically, their coach/agent/manager/doctor's only concern) is winning as much money as possible and (in the last couple of years at least) not getting busted.

If they started offering 7 figures for race walk events, no doubt in you'd see some Italian/Belgian/Spanish dude marching out his army of East African bum shufflers to pick up the cash within a matter of months.

They knew it was just aq matter of time before the 5000 was eliminated from the Diamond League and they slowed doown by becoming American citizens.

yyy wrote:

Look at the roads. Literally.

What? So you're saying the Ethiopians who dominate the 5000 now are so dumb that they don't see they could make a ton more money in the marathon?

So exactly how much more does someone make winning the Ottawa or Rome marathon or placing 3rd in Rotterdam or Berlin vs being the top 3 in the DL 5000 circuit? Who will know you if you are 3rd in Berlin vs 3rd in the DL circuit?

1) It’s debatable whether the fastest runners on the roads need to start there or run track first. You’ve got Kipchoge on one side and Sammy Wanjiru on the other side. One focused on the track and transitioned and one stayed on the roads the majority of their career. If the “talent” has moved to the roads, it’s Kenya’s 10,000m guys and not the 5,000m ones.

2) Are Kenyans more dominant on the roads than Ethiopia? Why did you cherrypick the top marathon times from only last year when this discussion is talking about the statistics since at least 2013?

Let’s compare WMM wins (since classified as WMM in 2006)

Tokyo: 4-3 Kenya

Boston: 8-4 Kenya

London: 12-2 Kenya

Berlin: 8-5 Kenya

Chicago: 10-1 Kenya

New York: 6-2 Kenya

In terms of Olympic and WC medals in the marathon since 2013, Kenya has 2 golds compared to Ethiopia with 3 silvers and 1 bronze. Again, outperforming Ethiopia in the marathon even if they do suck according to you.

Don’t know if you count commonwealth games, but Caleb Ndiku won the 5,000m in 2014 with Kenya 1-2.

Because the marathon pays better

Diamond league wins bring what, $10k or so? And there are only a few a year that they can do for 5k. What other track races pay money? Pretty much none. And the guys running those Diamond League races are some of the fastest in the world. Meanwhile they can go and run some B or C level road race and make $10k, and they can do that every few weeks 8 months of the year. Then they can jump in their one or two marathons in a year and make even more than that $10k. When money is by far your main incentive you won't stick to the track, and you might also do whatever it takes (doping) to make more of that money.

What I found interesting is look at the world lists for half marathon and marathon. Kenya only has about 140 sub 64 half marathon guys while the world has about 500, but 100 of their 140 are sub 62 minute guys, so there's a huge drop-off. And 64 in the half isn't going to make a TON of money, but sub-62 can make you some decent money. Seems they only really continue to try if they're in the money. And since there's very little money on the track, not many of them are trying anymore.

The IAAF is in the process of eliminating the 5000m from the Diamond League so it doesn't make sense to train for the 5000m. How many 5K races are left in the Diamond League now? Therein lies your answer.

Ethiopia has 4 silvers and 1 bronze since 2013 which I would argue is better than 2 golds

Plus it's probably hard to make a trip from east Africa worth it if you're just going to run 63-64 mins. Sub 62 and you won't even be the one paying for that travel in most cases.

My mistake. I forgot the 2015 world championships where Tsegay got the silver. I’m owning up to that.

That still doesn’t mean Kenya sucks at the roads as Coevett claims.

Better testing, Ethiopian training seems better at producing quality over quantity and better testing.