Claudia Lane vs Katelyn Tuohy time differences

John Green wrote:

One other note on this, keeping again in mind that I appreciate the analysis.

MT SAC seems to have been the only race Claudia really took herself to the limit in this year. She finished in 15:49. Castillo was ran 17:00, for a difference of 71 seconds. Katelyn at NXN best Castillo by 52 seconds.

Again, my point is that IMHO if you look closely at what they were actually doing this year ... the only conclusion you can reach is that these are maybe the two greatest female HS XC runners in history and it would be great to see them race.

Claudia said she wants to go to world juniors in Scotland. Is Katelyn going?

John

Would be nice to see them both do WJXC in 2019, but I don't think it is going to be in Scotland.

Caltran wrote:

NOP Skeptic wrote:

I heard there's a girl from Michigan who could challenge her so maybe she won't want to risk blowing up and just take it with a mile or mile.5 to go.

Would love to see this. Who is she?

This is Olivia Theis. Ran 17:13 at FL West. PR is 16:52 at the State finals, where she broke the course record.

She’s ranked #2 going into Footlocker (based on qualifying times), but I think Claudia should have her easily.

Why don’t we all just stop putting pressure on these teenagers and wait for them to match up when it really matters, track. Times will be able to show the actual difference and the two will most likely get to race head to head at Brooks or if one of them comes to a big meet on the others coast(Arcadia, Penn).

The real question to ask here, is who will still be competing at this high level in 4 years. Every year we see amazing performances (e.g. 5K national record at NBIN gets faster every year). I sincerely hope neither slow down or plateau, but history says otherwise.

The reality seems to be this, more and more very talented young women are training at a collegiate level earlier and earlier. Because of this, we're seeing high school record breaking performances year over year. Tuohy's times are huge 'off the charts' improvements and Lane's accomplishments also significant. We may see Tuohy break 4:30 in the mile this year, but will she be able to stay at that level? I hope so.

Did anyone see in her interview that the week of NXN Tuohy did 2 workouts and an easy 8 miler on Thursday? She also did a workout on the Wappinger Falls course right after setting the course record earlier in the season.

Calmtfdown wrote:

Why don’t we all just stop putting pressure on these teenagers and wait for them to match up when it really matters, track.

No one's putting pressure on them. But by track season, one or the other may be injured or out of shape. It happens quickly with HSers, sadly.

There's nothing wrong with excited fans wanting to see their favorite athletes race against each other.

The Sports Gene wrote:

The real question to ask here, is who will still be competing at this high level in 4 years. Every year we see amazing performances (e.g. 5K national record at NBIN gets faster every year).

No, this is NOT the real question. They may not want to be competing at this level in 4 years. We shouldn't expect them to. All we have for certain is the now.

Did I hear you correctly to be saying that we should stop putting all this pressure on these kids ... until track season?

I don't know much about Katelyn's training, but suprisingly, I think your point does not apply to Claudia. From what I have picked up, she is only putting 35 or fewer miles per week and taking one day/week off. The leading female runners I knew in HS were going WAY beyong that. She has said in interviews that her coaches and parents are holding her back from training too hard until she gets to college.

John Green wrote:

First, in the FL west regionals on 12/2, Claudia ran 16 seconds faster than Amber Trotter's 2001 record. In 2001, Amber Trotter went on to shatter the Footlocker Nationals record by 15 seconds, running 16:24. If you impute from that, Lane could run 16:08 at FL nationals, which would be faster than the 16:15 level imputed by your analysis.

Except that Trotter ran that 16:24 in Orlando during the stretch when FLN was unfortunately held in Florida. The course was far faster than Balboa Park's.

When Melody Fairchild ran 16:39 in 1990 (winning by a ludicous 59 seconds), she was coming off a 34:41 10K at the Bolder Boulder the previous May and would run 34:34 there the following May. Although she was born and raised at altitude, those mid-34 times on a positive-elevation course at 5,300'-5,400' have to be worth 33:00 at sea level on a fast course. But Melody was highly unusual in her strength above 5K at that age, and would be today.

I think it is clear that either Tuohy or Lane could break that 16:39 -- but it won't be easy without both in the race. In fact, I think they would both be under it by at least 5-10 seconds if they were both running, but with only Lane there, I think she'll probably either just break it or miss it by about 5 seconds.

John Green wrote:

I don't know much about Katelyn's training, but suprisingly, I think your point does not apply to Claudia. From what I have picked up, she is only putting 35 or fewer miles per week and taking one day/week off. The leading female runners I knew in HS were going WAY beyong that. She has said in interviews that her coaches and parents are holding her back from training too hard until she gets to college.

Then how in the hell is she running so fast? Faster than any American in history has ever run at her age. It doesn't compute.

Validatethat wrote:

John Green wrote:

I don't know much about Katelyn's training, but suprisingly, I think your point does not apply to Claudia. From what I have picked up, she is only putting 35 or fewer miles per week and taking one day/week off. The leading female runners I knew in HS were going WAY beyong that. She has said in interviews that her coaches and parents are holding her back from training too hard until she gets to college.

Then how in the hell is she running so fast? Faster than any American in history has ever run at her age. It doesn't compute.

Oh no! A girl that doesn't meet the letsrun standard that all young girls are overtraining and are gonna burn out by the time they're in college!

Grassy Balboa wrote:

I think it is clear that either Tuohy or Lane could break that 16:39 -- but it won't be easy without both in the race. In fact, I think they would both be under it by at least 5-10 seconds if they were both running, but with only Lane there, I think she'll probably either just break it or miss it by about 5 seconds.

I know Melody Fairchild broke that 16:39 record alone, by a minute, and in 100º weather but I'm guessing Lane, with competition, with 60º weather, would be unable to match it.

Melody Fairchild was an insane talent. Claudia Lane is as well but haven't seen anything showing she can match Fairchild's times.

It would seem to me that Lane is an almost prohibitive favorite. The two most likely scnearios for someone beating her would be: (1) Rebecca Story pulls it off, just because she is the most pedigreed runner besides Lane in the race and was third last year, or (2) an sophomore who is improving rapidly peaks out and makes a jump. But probably, even in these scenarios, Lane has to not run her best race.

Good catch! I just realized today that I had erred in this comment and logged into to confess it. And your analysis of the matter insightful. Thanks for it. One fact still remaining from my flawed analysis is without really running it out much, Claudia easily broke a bunch of records including the FL West record this year. The one race she clearly took herself to the limit in - Mt SAC - what she accomplished vis-a-vis the previous record was insane. Maybe I am just rooting for her, but I have a gut feeling she is going to break the Balboa record.

Validatethat wrote:

John Green wrote:

I don't know much about Katelyn's training, but suprisingly, I think your point does not apply to Claudia. From what I have picked up, she is only putting 35 or fewer miles per week and taking one day/week off. The leading female runners I knew in HS were going WAY beyong that. She has said in interviews that her coaches and parents are holding her back from training too hard until she gets to college.

Then how in the hell is she running so fast? Faster than any American in history has ever run at her age. It doesn't compute.

I am totally with you ... it is just crazy. When you look at her build though, she is very small, has minimal body fat, and incredible resource in her thighs, which are incredibly powerful. But it still does not explain ... I guess she is just gifted.

Calibunga wrote:

Grassy Balboa wrote:

I think it is clear that either Tuohy or Lane could break that 16:39 -- but it won't be easy without both in the race. In fact, I think they would both be under it by at least 5-10 seconds if they were both running, but with only Lane there, I think she'll probably either just break it or miss it by about 5 seconds.

I know Melody Fairchild broke that 16:39 record alone, by a minute, and in 100º weather but I'm guessing Lane, with competition, with 60º weather, would be unable to match it.

Melody Fairchild was an insane talent. Claudia Lane is as well but haven't seen anything showing she can match Fairchild's times.

Appreciate your point, but I have to disagree. I think what Claudia did to that Mt. SAC course, let alone her accomplishements at Woodward point to the possibility. Take a close look at that Mt. SAC result. Moreover, she hit 17:04 at Balboa last year, 8th fastest time ever on that course, on about five months of serious training (though not intense training by common HS XC standards) after being injured all spring. And she really did not have a problem holding off Nevada Moreno at the end after leading wire to wire.

Well said ... wrote:

my lord.... wrote:

Someone has to tell you guys/girls to just stop... you can not determine who is the better runner by some damn subjective measurement you just made up... who gives a rats a%%... they'll see who is better every time they race each other in a few years and my guess is if they race enough it will go back and forth..... no need to try to determine who is the better runner right now. Really it's true... no need.

let it go.

Thank you. My sentiments are exactly the same.

Maybe more importantly: what is the harm to anyone in considering the issue. I think HS XC having ardent fans is a good thing for the sport.

WTFBBQ wrote:

Powermerge wrote:

You do realize Lane didn’t actually race against any of these girls at the CA State Meet? Lowe and Smith raced at 9:05am in Div 1, Castillo and Herberg at 10:35am in Div 2, and Lane at 11:35am in Div 4. The temps went from 50s to 70s as the day went on.

Yes, totally. Not an exact science. I didn't post it here but going through earlier races where Lane did run against some of these girls, the time differences were similar.

So with Tuohy's dominant performance today, what would you say Lane would have to run in order to be considered even?

Right now, it seems like Tuohy is the superior runner.

This is why I point to Mt. SAC for the comparision. That was Claudia's most ardent effort this year and she bested Castillo by 71 seconds. So, the interesting comparision that started this thread, IMO, is better if you simply look at Lane v. Castillo at Mt. SAC and Tuohy v. Castillo at NXN.

bobbyhastie6 wrote:

Tuohy is doping.... check out the numbers.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=8570602

Spewing unsubstantiated rumors like this about a kid in tenth grade makes you a complete loser ________ (fill in flavory perjorative of your choice.)

John Green wrote:

Well said ... wrote:

Thank you. My sentiments are exactly the same.

Maybe more importantly: what is the harm to anyone in considering the issue. I think HS XC having ardent fans is a good thing for the sport.

I agree, as long as people are not trashing the runners or events, and I do appreciate your comments.