Chicago Marathon weather not looking great, other options?

I'm in the "just stick with Chicago" camp and take your mind off this issue. All this fretting and alternatives-planning is likely going to compromise your performance regardless of where you end up running.

Whose forecast are you looking at?

Grand Rapids is a flat and fast course. I cannot think of a year when it was warm and poor weather. At you goal time you might win it or end up battling it out with a couple guys. Bonus is free craft beer (all you can drink) afterwards.

I've run Boston twice in the heat and I don't think it's a complete deal breaker but it certainly doesn't help. My backup is CIM 2 months later.

I'm running chicago with a target of 2:26-28 so concerned.... hope to stay cool early in the race and maybe the wind will help.

I would take some water to the start and cover yourself... start cold.

Maybe even injest some ice water before the race.

Also get in the sauna this week/warm treadmill etc.

Just wow... wrote:

I'm in the "just stick with Chicago" camp and take your mind off this issue. All this fretting and alternatives-planning is likely going to compromise your performance regardless of where you end up running.

Sticking with Chicago is a good idea. It's not worth the stress, etc to find and plan for a new marathon and alter training to match. Stick with the original plan.

Detroit is NOT an option. It is international and requires passport clearance to have been done weeks ago.

I'll confirm the GR Marathon is typically a great course - I've done it 6-7 years in a row, and it is usually throwaway gloves at the start.

Did 10mi @ marathon pace on the course yesterday to get the small hills in mind, and there's only about 200 ft of climb the whole way, most between 8-10 miles.

The only reason GR doesn't rank much higher on the metrics is due to the race director allowing 1-hour early starts and keeping the course open until all finishers cross (sometimes 10+ hours) --

And indeed, the beer at the finish line is free and good.

Ice hats every 5k!!!

Bay State Marathon in Lowell, MA 3rd weekend of October - Also the USATF-NE Marathon Championship.

Weather keeps improving. Per weather.com, now a high of 74 degrees and a low of 57. I have looked into this and you can estimate that by the end of the race, you will be 2/3rds of the way from the low to the high, so we are talking maybe 60 at the start at 68 at the end of the race.

Not perfect, but the forecast is also for morning clouds and humidity is forecasted to be 54%. If you calculate the dew point at 65 degrees and 54% humidity, we are looking at a dew point of 48 degrees. That is non-impactful weather. Even if you try to compute a suffer score by combining the temps and dew point, you end up well under a combined total of 120. You have probably been training through much, much worse conditions for this race all summer, no matter where you live.

So the forecast is far from set in stone, but is trending in the right direction, and even if you got what is currently in the forecast, it should be at least decent race conditions. The key will be for the humidity to stay relatively low and for the cloud cover to remain.

A lot of good east coast options mentioned- Mohawk Hudson + Baystate

I would stay the course, go all in on Chicago, and take excuses out of your head and not think about backup races. Chicago is an amazing experience with very deep fields. It starts early in the morning so maybe things shake up in 10 days and you get a 50 degree day.

After Chicago, if you need another race, then look to Philly or CIM. You could bounce back in a month or two if need be.

I love the Fukuoka goal. It's great for people who have no trouble with a Boston Qualifier but are a touch too far from an OTQ. It'd be cool to see a race like this in the US.

Portland Marathon? The RD is a jackass and you get a "finisher sapling" to promptly throw away, but at 2:33 you'll be near the front.

I agree with everything you said except 57 is the predicted low Sunday night after the race. The relevant low for Saturday night is 59. I think it's still a huge guess at this point but I do like the way it's trending.

I also think Chicago is an awesome, well-organized, and flat race that is logistically very easy with lots of energetic fans, faster folks to run with and tons of stuff for the family to do. It would have to be really bad for me to bail.

stop preparing excuses. Run Chicago, and if you are tanking early due to heat, walk away and find the next race that will get you sub 2:35

running is better wrote:

Portland Marathon? The RD is a jackass and you get a "finisher sapling" to promptly throw away, but at 2:33 you'll be near the front.

Portland Marathon is becoming a mess. Almost didn't happen this year due to a fight with the city over permits and police officers - now the route has changed for the first time in 46 years. It's a terrible out and back through the ugliest parts of the city - with a pretty solid climb on each end of the St John's bridge. Old course was really nice and potentially fast but I'd stay away as long as it's this joke of an out back run....

Smoove wrote:

Weather is trending in a slightly better direction, hopefully that continues.

I would second the nomination of the Hudson Mohawk Marathon, except the forecasted temps in Albany are within two degrees of the forecasted temps in Chicago.

One other thing to note: Mohawk-Hudson starts at 8 am, while Chicago starts at 7:30 am. That half-hour difference might balance out the 2 degrees.

I'm running Mohawk-Hudson. I'm not crazy about the weather, but it's not awful, and it's too early to panic. I ran Chicago last year and I was having this same discussion with others 10 days out....

Thanks smoove

I think it's starting to look decent and reasonable.

Hard to find perfect.

It's been a hot summer so hopefully heat adaption has taken place.

slo-twitch wrote:

I'm in the same boat with the sub 2:35 time goal at Chicago, but I'm based on the East Coast. If it's anything like currently forecast I'm not going to make the trip. I have Mohawk-Hudson Marathon near Albany, NY on the back burner. (maybe they'd still let you in to the "elite" field... it's sub-2:40 or sub 1:14-half). It could be warm there too though, in which case I'll probably hold off until Philadelphia Marathon (I don't like to extend a taper by another 1-2 weeks).

Toronto Waterfront is another option two weeks after Chicago. Closer to you, maybe Detroit or Des Moines one week after Chicago? I really know nothing about those races though or the quality of the fields.

Detroit would be a no-go. Have to register before now so they have your passport situation figured out in order to cross the bridge to Canada. Looks like ~10 guys or less under 2:35 each year at Detroit.

Maybe if you really need cold, hit a couple more weeks hard then head to Indy on 11/4? Maybe 10-15 guys under 2:35, with winner around 2:19-2:20. Guy that won it a couple years back posts on the "Road Racing and Training Threads"

But, as others have said, a 10 day forecast is just an look at a historical almanac average or a guess...you'll know more about Chicago next week.

GR hobby jogger wrote:

Grand Rapids is a flat and fast course. I cannot think of a year when it was warm and poor weather. At you goal time you might win it or end up battling it out with a couple guys. Bonus is free craft beer (all you can drink) afterwards.

Wait...is GR really all you can drink free craft beer afterwards? I might have found my 2018 marathon plan...

David S. Pumpkins wrote:

GR hobby jogger wrote:

Grand Rapids is a flat and fast course. I cannot think of a year when it was warm and poor weather. At you goal time you might win it or end up battling it out with a couple guys. Bonus is free craft beer (all you can drink) afterwards.

Wait...is GR really all you can drink free craft beer afterwards? I might have found my 2018 marathon plan...

Sounds like my kind of race! Wonder if it's all craft or if they have PBR and Natty Light as well.