Official Sub-2 Live Discussion Thread and Prediction Thread

I think they will run 2:00 pace as long as they can, to about 32-33K, slow, and eventually all DNF when they realize it can't be accomplished. Kipchoge will of course be the last to drop out, others will be gone earlier.

Any of them could do it as long as they're doped up enough.

You think they will run 2:00 pace as long as they can????? That is funny stuff:):):):):):):):). For the record, that's been the plan the whole time;)

Montego wrote:

I think they will run 2:00 pace as long as they can, to about 32-33K, slow, and eventually all DNF when they realize it can't be accomplished. Kipchoge will of course be the last to drop out, others will be gone earlier.

Another thing is, time doesn't matter. What if there were 10 hours in one rotation of the Earth instead of 24? With 60 'minutes' in every one of those hours.Then the project would be all about breaking 50min for a marathon, instead of 2 hours. So 2:00:00 is not the 'ultimate barrier.' It could be any time.THAT is FUNNY Stuff up there^^^^^^^^^^^^he's not running 2:00:34. what are you smoking?

tunkcart wrote:

NoooooWaaaaay wrote:

It's predicted to be 70 degrees F. and raining on Saturday, and partly cloudy and 71 on Sunday. If it's not postponed, *possibly* a world record, but NO WAY sub-2. Too warm.

Really silly course selection. For goodness sake, there have got to be flatter, cooler places in the world that would let you have a legal altitude drop between start and finish. I'm sure crowdsourcing it to the letsrun community would have given them a few nice loops with a nearby drop that would be more suitable.

I've heard you can get some fast times at Lehigh!

No WaY JOse' wrote:

It's not a guess, it's a fact. Look at the world half marathon and its progression. Look at the marathon record and the pace per mile. No one is running 60 flat or faster for 13.1 and repeating it, not gonna happen. It's simply a nice round number so it should be attainable, right? Nope, and please save the 4 minute mile comparison for another day, that simply does not compare.

2:03:45 wrote:

What's your guess?

Your prediction of what the time will be is absolutely a guess.

test2 wrote:

best case: Kipchoge is in 2:02:30 shape under good conditions in a normal marathon. Since they are cycling new pacers in, he'll be drafting the last 6 miles which isn't usually the case in world record attempts. If that's worth 3% it'll take off about a minute so 2:01:30. If he's going to led by a V of pacers instead of a single pacer, maybe that's worth an additional 1% over the whole thing (1% here is a wild-ass guess). That'd be worth another minute and a third so round down to 2:01:00. I'm betting the shoes don't make a difference. I don't think best, best case is 2:01-flat but I predict splits of 60:00 and 6:03 for a time of 2:03:00.

This seems reasonable to me.

I don't know if I'm a little late to the party on this but here is a link to sign up for the webcast: https://www.nike.com/events-registration/event?id=76095

If it's on the brink of too warm they'll just set up some kind of water sprinklers at intervalls along the course. Tech known and used at marathons for decades. But here the runners should be able to signal if they want them turned on or off.

Notice that I wrote "on the brink" - if really too hot it won't help.

59:5x 1st half will cause issues later in the race and they will fade badly. 1:03:xx 2nd half for a 2:04 low

Peter Andersson wrote:

Prediction? The Tesla lead car malfunctions and breaks down on the spot after about 90 minutes. All the runners run into it a crashes in a heap of entangled legs. Tesla stock crashes. Elon Musk goes bankrupt 1:59:45 later.

No, no, you are not thinking three dimensionally. Musk knows that America is run by idiots (Democrats, Republicans and 'Independents') and will go cap in hand for more subsidies. Thus keeping his scam going a little while longer.

Ha, ha, ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!59:5x will cause issues later in the race? No sh*t Sherlock, thanks for pointing out what we already know. Duh!!!!! That's why they won't be able to do it and it won't be broken. The record is in the 58:30's by Tadese and you think a sub 60 first half will cause problems? Captain Obvious is not agc5k.

agc5k wrote:

59:5x 1st half will cause issues later in the race and they will fade badly. 1:03:xx 2nd half for a 2:04 low

2:02-2:04

3:11:45

No, it's not a guess. "Your" prediction would be a guess. I am quite confident that my words are fact, are you? If so, put some denaro down on it. That's what I thought, all talk. "Your" prediction (zack92039u) is merely a guess and a bad one at that.

zack92039u wrote:

No WaY JOse' wrote:

It's not a guess, it's a fact. Look at the world half marathon and its progression. Look at the marathon record and the pace per mile. No one is running 60 flat or faster for 13.1 and repeating it, not gonna happen. It's simply a nice round number so it should be attainable, right? Nope, and please save the 4 minute mile comparison for another day, that simply does not compare.

Your prediction of what the time will be is absolutely a guess.

2:01:19

they won't break 2:03, wait for it.

20119 wrote:

2:01:19

agreed totally hyped up the pace is one that they won't be able to maintain. game over 2:03:41 still can't believe real runners believe they'll break 2 hours.

nickellerbacker wrote:

they won't break 2:03, wait for it.

20119 wrote:

2:01:19

Rumour is Bekele is going to bandit the race.

He will set off more conservatively allowing the leaders to lap him. When they tire of sub 2 pace and drop out he will be the new leader and come back for the win in 2:05

Hw ill be lapped but go o for the win!

Unless he gets a blister