$1K bet! 200lb multi-eventer to run sub 3hours

get out your checkbook wrote:

If he has the will to drop 20 lbs, he's already at the requisite half-marathon time at his current training level. It won't even be close come spring if he loses weight and properly trains for the marathon.

Is this actually legit - just by dropping 20lb he'd be 8min faster over the half marathon?

Also I thought the transition between half marathon to full marathon is not easy. I recall reading stories of decent middle distance runners running a marathon and then completely blowing up in the last 5K. I assume this is more likely for a multi-eventer.

So he ran 91 minutes on roughly 60 mpw?

I ran 88 minutes on like 40 mpw and I'm still a million miles away from running sub 3 (3:22 pb).

Solid bet. He could get there, but I think there's a greater than 50% chance he won't. He could also get injured at some point.

A very general rule of thumb is 2 seconds saved per mile for each pound lost. That might not be exact for an athlete like your friend, but it does sound like he would be considerably faster just by dieting.

Yeah, sub 3 isn't that fast. Stand at the finish line of a marathon and look at all of the sub 3 marathoners. They come in all shapes and sizes. Some wear fanny packs, fuel belts, and arm sleeves. It is humiliating.

Running Commenter wrote:

Yeah, sub 3 isn't that fast. Stand at the finish line of a marathon and look at all of the sub 3 marathoners. They come in all shapes and sizes. Some wear fanny packs, fuel belts, and arm sleeves. It is humiliating.

I know, those arm sleeve guys are ruining the sport.

Slow Bro wrote:

So he ran 91 minutes on roughly 60 mpw?

I ran 88 minutes on like 40 mpw and I'm still a million miles away from running sub 3 (3:22 pb).

You are completely missing the point of VDOT. If you get down to a sub-1:25 half, then you should have the VDOT to go sub-3, IF you then but the mileage base training along with that VDOT. Your clue that you don't have the latter to go along with your VDOT is because your base mileage of 40 miles per week was too low.

notagoodbet wrote:

He will EASILY do it.

On mercier tables a 3 hour marathon = 12.6 100m, 60s 400m, 1.56 high jump etc.

3 hours is a joke to anyone remotely athletic. The reason why it's a "standard" in marathon running is that everyone and his dog has run a marathon - it's diluted with so many unathletic people.

FALSE. 3 hours is not a joke. It's a joke for many serious and talented runners on LetsRun but for the average person? No, it's legit.

One of the world's best athletes - Brianne Theisen-Eaton - just ran 3:55.

u r askew wrote:

Slow Bro wrote:

So he ran 91 minutes on roughly 60 mpw?

I ran 88 minutes on like 40 mpw and I'm still a million miles away from running sub 3 (3:22 pb).

You are completely missing the point of VDOT. If you get down to a sub-1:25 half, then you should have the VDOT to go sub-3, IF you then but the mileage base training along with that VDOT. Your clue that you don't have the latter to go along with your VDOT is because your base mileage of 40 miles per week was too low.

actually equates 2:59:59 to 1:26:21. But this seems crazy to me. Even if very well trained for the marathon, most people that can only run 1:26 mid in the half won't be able to get under 3 hours.

need something more than VDOT wrote:

https://runsmartproject.com/calculator/

actually equates 2:59:59 to 1:26:21. But this seems crazy to me. Even if very well trained for the marathon, most people that can only run 1:26 mid in the half won't be able to get under 3 hours.

Agreed, I think most people must be in 1:24 shape at minimum to run sub 3 hours. For the multi-eventer, I think it's closer to 1:23 since he's so heavy.

Update:

My friend ran his first marathon today.

Good news is that I won the side bet of $100.

Bad news is that he ran 3:05:30.

Even worse news is that he weighed 185 lb this morning.

I'm not sure how he was able to improve so much in only half a year. At this point I know I'm probably going to lose the main 1K bet. He will likely be able to run sub 3 by spring 2019. If he fails then, he'll even be able to attempt another that fall. I think my only hope is that he gets injured through training, goes through the half too fast and blows up, experiences terrible weather on race days, or shits his pants. What does Letsrun reckon are the chances this happens?

Should I try and hedge with any other side bets?

I know how to increase YOUR chances ..........

No hate but this was a stupidly easy bet for your buddy - Im just surprised he hasn't won yet.

Given his speed and age all he has to do is consistent easy mileage of 50 or 60 miles per week and he wins this. You must have put a lot of fate in your buddy not having the discipline to train or lose weight.

Well, duh. The main thing you overlooked with your friend isn't that he has natural athletic ability, but rather the mental toughness and focus and determination of a CombinedEventer. Anyone who competes decently at the Decathlon has True Grit that would make John Wayne cower and tremble and sh!t his pants. Your friend will do this easily, with Eye of the Tiger looping 80x on full-repeat.

FWIW, as an aerobically-challenged runner I had a sub-37:00 10K best and was over 3:00 for my first two marathons.

You already hedged. You made $100. So now you will lose a bet amount of $900.

He’s 5’11 185?

He literally doesn’t have to improve at all. Just keep doing easy runs and get down to 175. Then he’s under 3.

Very strange plot-twist just occurred....

At this point, everyone is fairly certain that I will be losing $1K in the fall. I feel the only way he doesn't achieve the sub 3 hours is if he blows up going through too fast, has digestion problems, or the weather is a terrible on race day.

There is no change to the original bet, however we just made another side $500 bet and I feel like it offers a solid opportunity for me to reduce my losses. The terms of the bet involve physical feats for both of us now, structured as a race:

For him (the multi-eventer): He must deadlift 500lb sometime after he runs sub 3 hours for the marathon.

For me: I must PB in the 400m by running sub 50.5 or faster FAT.

If one person accomplishes his task, the other has three months to achieve his respective task and void any payout. Otherwise, the first to achieve his task wins the $500. For example, if he runs sub 3 hours this fall and then deadlifts 500lb in January, I have until March to run sub 50.5 and avoid paying out.

Obviously for Letsrun to make some assessment, you will have to know a bit about me the OP.

Lifetime PBs: 50.5high for 400m FAT and 1:54high both run summer of 2015.

I have continued to train since 2015 but had an unlucky stress fracture in 2016 in my foot.

Current season (2018) bests: 51.9 for 400m and 1:55high. I am in my late 20s and work full-time.

So Letsrun.... did I reduce my [future] losses?

Oh I forgot to mention.

Multi-eventer/marathoner has deadlift over 500 in the past (barely). But he is clearly weaker now from high mileage and not lifting as much.

Sounds like a good way for the two of you to keep at what is important to you.

I think your friend should start posting in here...