Who will end up with best PR for 5K- G Fisher, Ches, Tiernan, J. Knight, McGorty?

Sorry, the McGorty quote should have been referencing a "3:37" 1500m from a poster, not "3:57."

Ok, factual problems aside (current PB's, etc.) what kind of prediction would you consider to be rational or not unfounded? It is pretty hard to have predictions on future PB's without there being considerable disagreement. I don't see that making them unfounded.

Daytuh wrote:

Link wrote:

Only Fisher and Ches have an upside in terms of age and endurance - they're the only ones with 1500/mile PRs that promise something better down the road.

I'm a huge McGorty fan, but, to say he will break 13:10 at some point? To do that, he'd need to be down under 3:37 by now

Knight ran 3:56.87 mile indoors at age 19.5 yrs.

You for realize Mcgorty ran a 3:53 indoor mile right?

cyber friday wrote:

Fatty R. Belt Buckle wrote:

Predict who will have best lifetime PR 5K and predict lifetime 5K PR for each.

Tiernan easily.

12:50 5k

Will likely go under 27:00 for the 10,000 as well.

Fisher might sneak under 13:00, but not much more than that.

Ches will stay at 13:18

Mo and Lagat have never run 12:50. Rupp is a 12:58 guy. Why do you think Tiernan is more talented than Lagat?

the wire's in my name queue wrote:

Coach bigfoot wrote:

I literally just told you. He's run 13:00 since college.

@Coach bigfoot: when exactly did Mr. Lalang run 13:00 after losing to Mr. Cheserek at NCAAs as a fifth-year senior at Arizona in 2014?

https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/kenya/lawi-lalang-261799

He ran 3:33 and 13:00 in 2013 and ran 13:03 after BEATING Cheserek in NCAA outdoors in 2014. Where have you been?

SpeakerofTruthz wrote:

1) Morgan McDonald

2) The rest

Bit of an exaggeration but I still think he's underrated, no clue how he hasn't come up yet in this thread! 9 seconds slower than Tiernan over 5k but 2 years younger. Runs .5 second behind fisher at NCAA XC and now he's out of the conversation?

TRUE. He ran 3:57 indoors and 13:29 outdoors (beat Fischer in that race and at Wisconsin). He's also only 20 and has plenty of potential as well.

HUNTER

Can we add Ratcliffe and Hunter to the discussion?

Broooooo wrote:

Can we add Ratcliffe and Hunter to the discussion?

No, not Ratcliffe. Maybe in a year or two, but wait for him to do something of note. Honestly, Hunter is a bit of a stretch, but McDonald should be added.

That said,

Cheserek: 12:54

Knight: 12:57

Hunter: 12:59

McDonald: 13:03

Fisher: 13:05

Tiernan: 13:09

McGorty: 13:18

Really good group of runners.

Spaghettimonster wrote:

Daytuh wrote:

Knight ran 3:56.87 mile indoors at age 19.5 yrs.

You for realize Mcgorty ran a 3:53 indoor mile right?

3:53.95, indeed, he is fast with excellent range. I was just adding Knight's mile time to the discussion.

Cheresek: 13:08

Knight: 12:59

Tiernan: 13:12

Fisher: 13:07

McGorty: 13:11

Purely for fun.

Knight 13:00

Cheserek 13:00

Tiernan 13:00

Fisher 13:10

Mcgorty 13:05

Coach bigfoot wrote:

nada zip wrote:

What has he done since college? Nothing

I literally just told you. He's run 13:00 since college.

No you didn't. You told me something he literally did during college.

Ches: 13:05

Knight: 13:05

Tiernan:13:10

Fisher: 13:010

McGorty: 13:15

Fisher 13:03

Tiernan 13:05

Knight 13:06

Cheserek 13:09

McGorty 13:15

I don't think Fisher or Knight will be able to break Mo Ahmed's Canadian record of 13:01.74

I completely agree. Good point about Fisher being Canadian! I never knew he ran a 13:24. Impressive.

Not one of the bunch wrote:

Bunch of idiots wrote:

Love your confidence, but there's at least 3 blatant nuggets of misinformation in just 1.5 pages of thread. All uncorrected up to this point.

1) Fisher has run 13:24. He hasn't. His PR is 13:30.

2) McGorty "isn't really close to that (3:57) by now." He is. He ran a 3:53 mile indoors last year.

3) Fisher is Canadian, and therefore will not take a spot on the national team. Fisher is in fact a US citizen.

Add some of the completely idiotic, unfounded opinions/predictions, and you have the rationale for someone thinking "what a bunch of idiots" after checking out this thread.

I completely agree. Good point about Fisher being Canadian! I never knew he ran a 13:24. Impressive.

Nice catch. I too had no idea Fisher was Canadian. I am surprised he has run as fast as 13.24. That is faster than I would have thought.

Coureur22 wrote:

Cheresek: 13:08

Knight: 12:59

Tiernan: 13:12

Fisher: 13:07

McGorty: 13:11

I really like these predictions. It's the best one in my opinion. Knight in my opinion is by far the most talented. He ran a 13:26 5000m on what, 40 mpw? Imagine when he goes pro and ups his mileage. I think he has a chance at going 13:01 or maybe sub 13. Cheserek is the best of these athletes right now in my opinion, he just doesn't show it all the time. He's run the fastest 5k but I think Knight just has the edge because he is on such low mileage. I'd put him around 13:02 or 13:03. Tiernan is great but I don't know about him. He's already run in the Olympics and I don't think he will get much better than he is now. I think he'll run 13:14. I'm not too high on either of the Stanford boys. Sub 4 in high school really does not indicate that much imo. Does that translate to college that well? Not really. I think he'll be a great US runner for a while but I don't see him winning any international meets. I see him around 13:04 also. McGorty is really the hardest for me because I don't know much about him. He ran 3:53 indoors but I still doubt him. I think he can only get better from here. 13:08 seems like a good prediction for me.

Summary

Knight - 12:59-13:01 (He's just so talented and has been improving a lot)

Cheserek - 13:02-13:03 (He's got the body type for great times. I don't see him doing as good as Knight but 13:03 is still a competitive time anywhere)

Fisher - 13:04 (He's super talented but I don't think he will ever be as good as people like Evan Jager or Ben True)

McGorty - 13:08 (I can see him being like Chris Derrick was. I don't think he'll disappear like Chris however)

Tiernan - 13:08 (Same as McGorty. I don't see him getting an amazing time)