Women's Olympic Trials Marathon: Who ya got? Is it going to be Goucher vs. Flanagan?

*stipe wrote:

If we believe Shalane's and Amy's comments, they will not force the pace early. There is a good chance that Desi might just run 2:22-2:23 pace and the others might let her go. The most unique aspect is that Shalane always races her marathons to win. If she truly races to qualify, she should be able to hang with the lead pack (or Desi chase pack) and finish strong. Deena could be interesting since she is so savvy, so I wouldn't count her out.

I'll go:

1 Desi with a solo victory

2 Shalane emerges from the pack to run a strong final 10k

3 Deena runs smart but can't close with Shalane

4 Sorry Amy (I hope I'm wrong)

5 Sara

6 Kara, tears

This makes sense to me, though it is hard for me to pick Hall 5th.

I'm rooting for kara here- that would be an amazing comeback. and her workouts on strava seem good to me.

and the lrc haters would get a nice comeuppance.

Shalane of course.

are there any african born women in the hunt? there has to be someone.

Sfhhjnwws wrote:

When is the women's race and how far is it?

I'm a woman and I find this pretty darn funny.

Desi

Kara

Shalane if she has been injured as others have said.

In the hunt is Amy Hastings, Sara Hall, Serena, Kellyn, Kleppin

Seems like barring injury no one can challenge Shalane and Linden for 1/2. I'm not sure who is favored to win or even if they will fight hard for a win.

I'm hoping to see Deena Kastor chase down the young ones and destroy their dreams in the last 2 miles.

I had written off Goucher after she had a terrible performance in the marathon and seemed to get content with being a quasi celebrity. But recent photos show her looking thinner than I have seen in a while and I wonder if she might have one last run in her. She has always had the physical talent but seemed to not have the mental toughness you see in Shalane and Desi.

mar828 wrote:

Desi has said that she feels only she and Shalane can maintain 2:25 pace so I think it's those two, barring disaster, and then I'll take Hastings to show.

What's she going to show? Pics or it will not happen.

never worn a cotton tee wrote:

change it back. maybe it is a pre-race strategy.

Changed back.

I read the LRC prediction for the men's race (will they do the women's too?) and Wejo's thoughts on believing the training sealed the deal. Poker strategy?

Here's my final picks:

Desi

Flanagan

Misiker

Misiker Demissie is not declared. Unless USATF didn't update the status of entries it doesn't look like she is running.

dunno wrote:

Misiker Demissie is not declared. Unless USATF didn't update the status of entries it doesn't look like she is running.

Don't they still have until this weekend?

Declarations ended at 5:00 PM EST today.

my favorite post of the last 3 weeks.LOL!

Sfhhjnwws wrote:

When is the women's race and how far is it?

Watch the entries wrote:

Missile will not be on the starting line.

I told you so. It is always tough knowing so much more than this board.

I had heard that Misiker was having some legality issues in order to be eligible and it looks like it was true

So people that predicted Misiker didn't know what they were talking about.

People that predicted Kleppin have not followed the sport for the last 2 years as she has been hurt and will not run.

Those that predicted Thweatt are just plain ignorant as she and her coach have always maintained that she was not running and focusing on track.

Once again a whole bunch of people that need to chime in with their opinion which is based on ZERO knowledge.

Must not follow the sport wrote:

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:

Oh yeah? Then who do you think is going to do well?

Did you read the RW interview today? How was TNF News 2015 rankings?

Uh oh...watch out, guys! We have a real Internet bada$$ here!

Thedirty wrote:

Anyone who picks Shalane outside the top 3 is an idiot. 10 weeks is plenty of time to get ready for a race, especially for a woman with the credentials of Flanagan. Desi will probably get the win with Shalane second, and third will be a surprise on the women's side. I just hope it's not Misiker the doper. I think th men's will go rupp/ritz/meb with no surprises in top 3.

This! I can't believe ppl are betting against Shalane being in the top 3. She's Shalane MF Flanagan! Coming off of an injury or not she's a beast and will get it done! I think it'll be a fight between Cragg, Kastor, and Goucher for the 3rd spot with Desi taking the win.

Misiker's agent and coach seemed to see her as a longer-term project and not someone who was particularly ready for these Trials.

If Everyone Just wrote:

Misiker's agent and coach seemed to see her as a longer-term project and not someone who was particularly ready for these Trials.

That and SHE IS NOT ELIGIBLE.

Ladies First wrote:

Thedirty wrote:

Anyone who picks Shalane outside the top 3 is an idiot. 10 weeks is plenty of time to get ready for a race, especially for a woman with the credentials of Flanagan. Desi will probably get the win with Shalane second, and third will be a surprise on the women's side. I just hope it's not Misiker the doper. I think th men's will go rupp/ritz/meb with no surprises in top 3.

This! I can't believe ppl are betting against Shalane being in the top 3. She's Shalane MF Flanagan! Coming off of an injury or not she's a beast and will get it done! I think it'll be a fight between Cragg, Kastor, and Goucher for the 3rd spot with Desi taking the win.

disagree - 10 weeks is not much training for a world class marathon.

Shalane's injury blows this up. it's going to be a good race.

I'm thinking desi is the only likely athlete to make the team.

My guess is that Shalane fades badly after the 2 hour mark. Kara looks good from workouts but a race is different.

Who "wins" the trials is irrelevant. If you come in the top three, you "win", sort of like preliminary rounds on the track. That being said, how you come in the top 3 can say a lot, for example, being with the leaders most of the way and then fading badly to struggle home in 3rd is not a good sign.

With that way of viewing things, it's not necessarily an "either, or", as they may both win together, although I seriously doubt it. I've got Shalane, Desi, and Kara, in that order, but I think Kara struggles to barely take 3rd.