USA Olympic Marathon Team - 2016

DMV Running Guru wrote:

1. Ritz

2. Hall

3. Ricky Flynn

4. Craig Leon

Ricky Flynn ran a 2:12 debut he is definitely going to be in contention with 4 years of 'thon training under his belt. He will be another D3 feel good story :)

So, 2:13:41 is the new 2:12?

Hall may not have run in a couple of years but you have to keep in mind that for any other race, Hall win not line up unless he is at 100%. For him, 100% means in contention for the in. Over kenyans. 2:04 kinda shape, yet again.

For NYCM or Boston, that's what it takes these days, so it's understandable that he withdrew.

For the trials, he can show up and doesn't even have to taper for it. 2:09 is tempo pace for a 2:04 guy, he can run that any day. So the first spot is booked.

The race is on for the other 2 spots though.

Bumparoo2016

We need to take a close look at History. Anyone that goes 2 years without running a marathon has not fared well at the trials. That eliminates several folks making the list.

Could Ryan Hall be the 2016 version of Khalid Khannouchi? Remember Khalid? 2:05 AR, all banged up for several years, starts a push to make the US team and valiantly places 4th... I could see Ryan Hall doing the same... making a concerted comeback, terrible racing (Khalid ran 65-66' HMs), but you just can't deny his talent over 26.2

Ryan Hall for 4th in 2:08:20

Cheeks Cabada

Halleluja wrote:

...

For the trials, he can show up and doesn't even have to taper for it. 2:09 is tempo pace for a 2:04 guy, he can run that any day. So the first spot is booked.

The race is on for the other 2 spots though.

OK, but how about for a 2:06:17 guy? Still a tempo run?

And how about for a 2:06:17 guy who hasn't matched that level of performance in EIGHT YEARS (as of the trials date) and who has not even finished a marathon in nearly two years (as of today)?

The race is on for three spots. And I'd put money on Hall not being one of the three.

While it would be silly to bet on Hall or anybody this early, I see what Halleluja is saying. He gets injured right now because he's trying to train to run 2:04-05 and stay with the top Africans. For the US Olympic trials he can play it a lot safer and get to the line healthy even if his shape is only 2:08-09 so I would put his chance of injury drastically lower.

bump

All bets are off , at this point we would be sending the weakest marathon team in US history. We are going backwards without question.

Its clear our system of marathon development is sub par to the rest of the world.

The banged up so called elites we have now are past their prime and slowing.

The next american group are 7 minutes behind the rest of the world elites.

Hardloper wrote:

While it would be silly to bet on Hall or anybody this early, I see what Halleluja is saying. He gets injured right now because he's trying to train to run 2:04-05 and stay with the top Africans. For the US Olympic trials he can play it a lot safer and get to the line healthy even if his shape is only 2:08-09 so I would put his chance of injury drastically lower.

Agreed that Hallelluja's post is reasonable at some level. Or at least part of it is. My objection is with:

"So the first spot is booked.

The race is on for the other 2 spots though."

That is just plain silly.

Bump for US marathoner updates. Is Meb racing the marathon next year in Rio?

1. Meb

2. Ritz

3. Puskedra

Rupp isn't going to run the marathon. That would be a horrible idea for him if he wants another medal. I feel bad saying this, but i just don't see Hall rebounding to where he needs to be.

Just realized the thread was over a year old. Meb has certainly not done poorly since this thread started. Anyone ready to change his or her mind on him? What about Ritz? He seems solid lately. If he can run 2:11, he'll make it.

How's Nick Arciniagas training going? I remember he led last years nyc marathon at mile 10.

How do we handle the aging of our best 26.2 guys?

Derrick said he's not doing a marathon before 2016.

So, Hall/Ritz take at least one spot.

Meb'll be 40, and I'll bet against him.

Otherwise, we have Vail, Puskedra, then a bunch of guys like Arcinaiga, Gotcher, Eggleston, ...

I think we'll have two from the first runner listed and either one from the etc group or one superstar moving up.

U.S. men sub-2:15 in the last 2 years:

Meb 2:08:37a (2:13:18 unaided)

Ritz 2:09:45

Eggleston 2:10:52

Vail 2:10:57

Curtis 2:11:20

Cabada 2:11:36

Arciniaga 2:11:47a (2:13:11 unaided)

Hartmann 2:12:12a (retired)

Tegenkamp 2:12:28

Boit 2:12:52a (2:13:14 unaided)

Biwott 2:12:55

Riley 2:13:16

Burrell 2:13:26

Quigley 2:13:30

Pennel 2:13:32

Reyes 2:13:34

Proctor 2:13:45

Leon 2:13:52

Reneau 2:13:53a

Ward 2:14:00

Landry 2:14:30

Tapia 2:14:30a (2:18:32 unaided)

Smith 2:14:40

Young 2:14:40

Morgan 2:14:40a (2:14:42 unaided)

Ritchie 2:14:50

Hall is a wildcard. We'll see what he does in L.A., if he makes it there. I'm liking Ward as another wildcard after his half yesterday and progression in the marathon over the last two years. I would think either Meb or Ritz, plus Eggleston, plus Hall, Ward or one of the other sub-2:13 guys. I don't think it'll be as strong as the London team but it won't be hard for them to run better.

meb's got a fighting chance...more than i can say for anybody else on this list.

i'll vote

Meb, he's still got it

Ryan Vail, pretty consistent, i like his odds after running 2:10

Ritz, finally racing again, just hope he holds it together