Imagine if a in-form Ryan Hall had run London this year...

Hall better get healthy if his career is to continue. It's been awhile.

You are correct. Except for the Olympic DNF, Ryan Hall has pretty much NEVER had an awful marathon. I'm not sure why people think he'd blow up. He always does his own thing.

Here are his career marathons save for his Olympic DNF:

2007

2:08:24 7 Flora London 22 Apr

2:09:02 1 OT New York NY 3 Nov

2008

2:06:17 5 Flora London 13 Apr

2:12:33 10 OG Beijing 24 Aug

2009

2:09:40 3 BAA Boston MA 20 Apr

2:10:36 4 ING New York NY 1 Nov

2010

2:08:41 4 BAA Boston MA 19 Apr

2011

2:04:58 AR 4 BAA Boston MA 18 Apr

2:08:04 5 Bank of Am Chicago IL 9 Oct

2012

2:09:30 2 OT Houston TX 14 Jan

Yes, my main point was he's been criticized in the past for "Not going with the leaders" and going for the win - he's been ripped for running his own pace. Today's race showed - hey there is no reason to bite off more than you can chew. Tsegaye is the champ as he knew he couldn't do what the others were doing and backed off.

I don't know why some people find this type of hypothesizing so enticing. Yes, of course he could possibly have won if he was in PR form and ran a perfect race. The odds are against it happening, but it's slightly possible. But he didn't, because he's not in top form and he wasn't running. We'll never be able to "settle" it with a yes/no answer.

But to take it up anyway, I guess you could argue it is more likely Hall could have done it than Ritzenheim, for instance, since his PR is almost as fast as the winning time, and Ritz's isn't. Someone might point out that the whole point is that Hall in particular is brought up because he is a guy who will run his own pace (Ritzenheim being a more traditional follow the pace guy). I don't think so, though. I don't think Ritz would have gone with the leaders at that kind of pace either, and I think if he was having a great day, he could also potentially have mowed down some guys at the end, and maybe in hypothetical-world, he could of PR'd and won the race.

That was the most surprising thing to me about today's race - there didn't seem to be a secondary group of guys from whom somebody could emerge to steal the race. There was basically a super-elite group, and that was it. Or that's the way it looks from the results.

rojo.

I'll admit the same thought crossed my mind when I saw the winning time.

But here is what would likely have had happened:

Hall WOULD have followed for the first 1/2, and blown up like the others.

When you say he likes to run his "own race", that has been somewhat true at Boston, but even then he's gone out hard (with the lead pace), died a bit, and then finished strong. But it was never enough to come close to winning. So I am pretty sure that that would not have worked today if he tried to hang with TODAY's pace (tougher than he's ever done).

You also forget (maybe?) that when he ran his PR at london, he actually DID go out at an insane pace (sub 1:02, correct? 1:01:4x...?). So he didn't run his "own race." In that race, he died a bit, and hung for a great time. He would have run sub 2:06 that day if he had run an even race, but he didn't. So likely , an "in form", or "back in the day" Hall would have done the same thing, as in gone out with the leaders, but at an even harder pace, and died, but probably harder. (I am assuming weather was worse today than during Hall's 2:06 london race? if so, more reason he would have died).

so yes, if Hall ran a completely even split race, and was in peak form, he would have indeed had a shot. But I highly doubt a peak Hall would give the leaders 1:30 at the half, since in the past he actually would always go with the pace, no matter how fast, through the 1/2 or at least near the 1/2.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we would all have a merry fkn christmas. By the way Ryan Hall would have definitely set a world record today :)

Based on the last time he ran a marathon on London, he would have not finished.

I think you nailed it.

In the buildup to Chicago '11, he was constantly talking about not wearing a watch and just staying with the leaders and "feeling it." Also, I think not having completed a race for awhile (since the trials?) will make him less likely to be patient when moves happen, even if they are insane.

Its the curse of a hard fast Boston's on american males...

I will wager $100 , he never breaks 2:08 again. Any takers ?

Tyrannosaurus Rexing wrote:

rojo.

I'll admit the same thought crossed my mind when I saw the winning time.

But here is what would likely have had happened:

Hall WOULD have followed for the first 1/2, and blown up like the others.

Why so? Like I said, he went out in 61:30 in 2008 and still finished in 2:06:17. Why couldn't he do that again this year? Not to mention he's a different runner this year than he was then - I believe he'd have no reservations running a 62:30 for the first half of the race.

Imagine if you learned the difference between "a" and "an".

#dreambig

Imagine if an in-form Dathan Ritzenhein ran this race today?

Ritzenhein's PR is 2:07:47 from 2012.

Everyone knows he loves to run his own pace.

Could he possibly run a PR by himself - just running his own pace like he loves to do?

The most hyped race in history goes out on WR pace, everyone blows up, and Ritzenhein passes one, then two, etc.

Imagine if he mowed down the entire field doing that? It would have been really interesting at the end.

Men: Official Results

1. Tsegaye Kebede ETH 2:06:04

2. Emmanuel Mutai KEN 2:06:34

A slight PR and he's got fourth or third or even second.

Totally out of the question?? Isn't it disrespectful to the runners who actually ran to ask this question?

#stompitout

post Boston wrote:

Its the curse of a hard fast Boston's on american males...

I will wager $100 , he never breaks 2:08 again. Any takers ?

A hard fast Boston's what?

Overmyhead wrote:

Lol that's Rojo's point. Everyone blew up, and Hall, if running his own race, would've caught a lot of the people who were paying the price of a fast start.

I got his point you missed mine

London can't be that fast a course if you look at all the big name who have run here over the years and run below par. Plus the temperature was warm in the sun

rojo wrote:

Hall's London PR is 2:06:17 from 2008.

Everyone knows he loves to run his own pace.

Could he possibly run a PR by himself- just running his own pace like he loves to do?

The most race hyped race in history goes out on WR pace. Everyone blows up. Hall passes one, then two, etc.

Imagine if he mowed down the field doing that. It would have been real interesting at the end.

Men: Official Results

1. Tsegaye Kebede ETH 2:06:04

2. Emmanuel Mutai KEN 2:06:34

A tiny PR and he's got the victory.

Totally out of the question??

#dreambig

a peak hall that drafts properly goes 205 low or better.

so ya, he could win.

but the reality is that hall does not draft and he's no longer running 59 for the half.

hall should go back to the track and run 5 and 10k, get the half back under 59 then re-enter the marathon.

on the track, the marathoner should not jump into crazy speed work directly, start with 63-65 sec 400m repeats and such then bring it down to 60 ish over six weeks or so. you can do sprint work but make it comfortable. it is the volume of work at around 62-65 seconds a lap that is the primary - that will allow you to ultimately run the half marathon faster - NOT sprinting.

the mainstay of training should be 3 to 8 minute repeats hard up hill. but there are other ways, aerobic monster workouts, with complete recovery after hard sessions.

and you're going to want to do a coe-salazar type weight routine on top. actually the weight workout can be a grand warm up to a moderate set of say... 4 x 1 mile repeats

Speculating about what Hall could have or would have done is futile. He wasn't there. His PR is from quite a few years ago and of no real relevance to his form today.

rojo wrote:

Halleluja wrote:

Hall is a 2:04 guy. He would have easily won today.

No, he's a 2;04 guy with a tail win.

And by your logic, then how do you explain what happened to all of the 2:03 guys today.

Tail win? Did you even finish junior high?

I couldn't imagine anything other than a DNF. When is the

last time Hall came from behind to win.a.race?

NJ possible wrote:

I couldn't imagine anything other than a DNF. When is the

last time Hall came from behind to win.a.race?

For that matter, when was the last time Hall finished a race? The dude's done.

Rojo-

I get what you're trying to say - a patient and capable marathoner like Hall could have laid off the pace early and then caught the whole field as they cratered from the crazy early pace.

Two problems -

He would have had to be so zen and crazy that he'd let himself drop back in the THIRD MILE. 2:06 flat is 4:48 pace so a perfectly paced race would put him 20 seconds back in the 3rd mile alone. No way he does that.

He'd have to run alone. Ask yourself - how hard is it to run 2:06? Now ask - how hard is it to run 2:06 completely alone?

The only way this is feasible is if Hall has a set of 2:06 pacers that agrees to run behind the lead group.