200m Track Race: Run until they are lapped. Who wins?

Tribe wrote:
Lets assume we have a WR 800, 1500, 3k, 5k and 10k gut in the race...
800 WR = 1:41 so the ultimate winner would only have to run the first 800 under ~ 2:11 (no problem)
1500 WR = 3:26: winner would have to pass 1500 under ~ 3:56 (31.5s per 200m pace - no problem)
3000 WR = 7:20: Winner would have to pass 3000 under 7:56 which is 31.7s per lap pace (still very doable)
5000 WR = 12:36: Winner would have to pass 5000 in ~13:08 (31.5s per lap)
10000m WR 26:17: Winner would have to pass 10000 in 26:59 (31.8s/lap)
Half marathon WR is 58:23: Winner would have to pass 21.1km in ~ 58:57 (33.5s pace)

There won't be any 58:23 guy late in the race. If he runs 58:23 pace, he'll get eliminated around 1400 meters. If he runs fast enough to not get eliminated, he won't run anywhere near 58:23.

Basically, your winner is going to be whoever can go out in around 13:08 pace, hold on strong through 10k or so, and then keep going enough to 'break' whoever's left.

Guys who are strong at 10k, 15k and half marathon, and with good speed and track backgrounds will be your best bet. Initial names that stand out are Bekele, Tadesse, Geb, Wanjiru, Sihine, Tergat in his prime, etc., though anyone who could run under 59:15 and under 26:50 or so could be a factor.

I see the race playing out like this.

Some mid-distance guys who haven't done the math right try and go quick. Rudisha runs a 1000 in like 2:13 and almost eliminates a couple of half marathon guys. They didn't do their math, and were trying to run half marathon pace. They see him coming however, sprint 100 meters and hold him off. Rudisha drops out, with no scalps. The slow guys settle back in, but their surge hurt them. Meanwhile, Geb and his pack are running comfortably ahead of this group at a quick clip, with a few guys out front trying to blaze for 1600-2000 meters or 5k.

The slow going group learns from their mistake and realize the milers and 5k guys will be coming and set a quicker tempo, trailing Geb's group. El G was bad at math too and comes through 2k in 4:45 with Ngeny right behind. He picks off a few of the slow group who were too spent after having to run a surging, uneven 4:12 pace when they were planning on cruising 4:30s. El G fights another lap or two after slowing, but realizes he's toast and drops, along with Noah.

Meanwhile, Bekele, Sihine, Geb, Tadesse, Tergat and Gebremariam, Wanjiru and Ritz have formed a nice pack, with Makau, Kwambai, and a few other half marathon studs following them. Tariku leads Komen, Kipchoge, Shaheen and Songok through about 4600 meters and then drops, leading those guys to the 5k of their lives. Komen runs 12:41 and Kipchoge pulls out second and hits 5k 12:43. He eliminates all the guys who were initially trying to run half marathon pace, and a couple of the guys who've fallen off Geb's pack. The main pack is safe though as they hit 5k in 13:10, with just a little surge to make sure they didn't get lapped. All 4 of the remaining 5k guys drop at this point. Ritz is tucked in with the group, knowing the best strategy and just hoping to stay on Geb's heels as long as he can.

Down to 8. Now is where it gets fun. Geb, Tergat, Tadesse and Gebremariam immediately hit the brakes, while Sihine starts towing Bekele out. Wanjiru and Ritz are relieved to have the respite from the pace. It quickly becomes obvious that Bekele intends to run 26:20-30 for 10k and try and get everyoneby that point. Ritz is really laboring as they hit 8k. The pack struggles a little to find their pace, somewhat erratically running 26:18 through 9800 meters to hold off Bekele's 26:24 effort. They surged a little to give themselves some safety cushion against Bekele's final 200 meter charge. Ritz couldn't go with the surge, and is taken out by Bekele(hitting 26:25 at 9800 and effectively running a new PR and roughly equaling Solinsky's AR effort). The pack avoided Bekele's kick safely, but were hurt by the effort of running a positive split 26:50 10k effort. Wanjiru is really looking like the fast early pace hurt him. Once they're sure that Bekele dropped, they start to slow again.

Surprise, though. After towing Bekele through 9k, Sihine didn't actually drop, but slowed for a couple laps, seeing an opportunity. As the group slows after Bekele dropped, Sihine starts hammering, and catches Wanjiru napping and unable to sprint. Having eliminated one of the top two Kenyan threats, and leaving Geb and Gebre in strong position, Sihine feels he's done his national duty and drops, unable to keep going hard. He has run probably the fastest 11k in history.

It's down to 4. At this point, Tadesse and Tergat both have the same thought and hop to the front to start driving. Geb tucks right in off their shoulders, with Gebremariam laboring behind. Tadesse leads, increasing the effort, but with the pace slowing, as the early speed takes it's toll. They go through 12k in just under 33 minutes, having slowed to 15 minute 5k pace. Gebremariam starts to fall off the back, and Tadesse takes this opportunity go all in. He starts driving hard, and reaches 14k in 38:30, lapping a laboring Gebremariam.

Tergat and Geb, meanwhile, had let him go, and just increased their pace slightly, not allowing him to get close as he came up the back. They hit 14k in 38:55, with Tadesse 8 seconds behind. Tadesse keeps hammering, thinking they must be about to crack, and seeing them. They look so close!! After a few laps of this, Tergat injects a 29 second 200 and Tadesse is broken. He reduces to a jog. Tergat keeps the tempo 'hard' (which is a loose term at this point, as they're all on rubbery legs after the quick early paces). A couple more laps just under 34 seconds, and they pass an almost walking Tadesse, who's now out.

Suddenly we're down to Geb and Tergat again, just like old times, who just hit 15k in 42:01. This battle will be different from their old ones, as it's not just a race to outkick the opponent, but to break them, either physically or mentally.

At 16k, Tergat looks to labor, and Geb takes off in a sprint, trying to break him. 200 meters later, he looks back and sees Tergat is still only 5 meters back. He's not broken. Geb goes like this another lap. Only 6 meter lead. Tergat just won't fade. Halfway through the third lap of Geb's sprint, he looks back and sees 6 meters still. At this point, he moves to lane two, starts beaming a huge smile, slows up, and claps his old friend on the shoulder as Tergat goes by. Geb slows to a walk as Tergat continues around the track. As Tergat comes up to lap him, Geb starts rubbing his achilles.

Tergat in his prime wins this one in just under 17k.

the answerer wrote:
There won't be any 58:23 guy late in the race. If he runs 58:23 pace, he'll get eliminated around 1400 meters. If he runs fast enough to not get eliminated, he won't run anywhere near 58:23.
Basically, your winner is going to be whoever can go out in around 13:08 pace, hold on strong through 10k or so, and then keep going enough to 'break' whoever's left.
Guys who are strong at 10k, 15k and half marathon, and with good speed and track backgrounds will be your best bet. Initial names that stand out are Bekele, Tadesse, Geb, Wanjiru, Sihine, Tergat in his prime, etc., though anyone who could run under 59:15 and under 26:50 or so could be a factor.
I see the race playing out like this.
Some mid-distance guys who haven't done the math right try and go quick. Rudisha runs a 1000 in like 2:13 and almost eliminates a couple of half marathon guys. They didn't do their math, and were trying to run half marathon pace. They see him coming however, sprint 100 meters and hold him off. Rudisha drops out, with no scalps. The slow guys settle back in, but their surge hurt them. Meanwhile, Geb and his pack are running comfortably ahead of this group at a quick clip, with a few guys out front trying to blaze for 1600-2000 meters or 5k.
The slow going group learns from their mistake and realize the milers and 5k guys will be coming and set a quicker tempo, trailing Geb's group. El G was bad at math too and comes through 2k in 4:45 with Ngeny right behind. He picks off a few of the slow group who were too spent after having to run a surging, uneven 4:12 pace when they were planning on cruising 4:30s. El G fights another lap or two after slowing, but realizes he's toast and drops, along with Noah.
Meanwhile, Bekele, Sihine, Geb, Tadesse, Tergat and Gebremariam, Wanjiru and Ritz have formed a nice pack, with Makau, Kwambai, and a few other half marathon studs following them. Tariku leads Komen, Kipchoge, Shaheen and Songok through about 4600 meters and then drops, leading those guys to the 5k of their lives. Komen runs 12:41 and Kipchoge pulls out second and hits 5k 12:43. He eliminates all the guys who were initially trying to run half marathon pace, and a couple of the guys who've fallen off Geb's pack. The main pack is safe though as they hit 5k in 13:10, with just a little surge to make sure they didn't get lapped. All 4 of the remaining 5k guys drop at this point. Ritz is tucked in with the group, knowing the best strategy and just hoping to stay on Geb's heels as long as he can.
Down to 8. Now is where it gets fun. Geb, Tergat, Tadesse and Gebremariam immediately hit the brakes, while Sihine starts towing Bekele out. Wanjiru and Ritz are relieved to have the respite from the pace. It quickly becomes obvious that Bekele intends to run 26:20-30 for 10k and try and get everyoneby that point. Ritz is really laboring as they hit 8k. The pack struggles a little to find their pace, somewhat erratically running 26:18 through 9800 meters to hold off Bekele's 26:24 effort. They surged a little to give themselves some safety cushion against Bekele's final 200 meter charge. Ritz couldn't go with the surge, and is taken out by Bekele(hitting 26:25 at 9800 and effectively running a new PR and roughly equaling Solinsky's AR effort). The pack avoided Bekele's kick safely, but were hurt by the effort of running a positive split 26:50 10k effort. Wanjiru is really looking like the fast early pace hurt him. Once they're sure that Bekele dropped, they start to slow again.
Surprise, though. After towing Bekele through 9k, Sihine didn't actually drop, but slowed for a couple laps, seeing an opportunity. As the group slows after Bekele dropped, Sihine starts hammering, and catches Wanjiru napping and unable to sprint. Having eliminated one of the top two Kenyan threats, and leaving Geb and Gebre in strong position, Sihine feels he's done his national duty and drops, unable to keep going hard. He has run probably the fastest 11k in history.
It's down to 4. At this point, Tadesse and Tergat both have the same thought and hop to the front to start driving. Geb tucks right in off their shoulders, with Gebremariam laboring behind. Tadesse leads, increasing the effort, but with the pace slowing, as the early speed takes it's toll. They go through 12k in just under 33 minutes, having slowed to 15 minute 5k pace. Gebremariam starts to fall off the back, and Tadesse takes this opportunity go all in. He starts driving hard, and reaches 14k in 38:30, lapping a laboring Gebremariam.
Tergat and Geb, meanwhile, had let him go, and just increased their pace slightly, not allowing him to get close as he came up the back. They hit 14k in 38:55, with Tadesse 8 seconds behind. Tadesse keeps hammering, thinking they must be about to crack, and seeing them. They look so close!! After a few laps of this, Tergat injects a 29 second 200 and Tadesse is broken. He reduces to a jog. Tergat keeps the tempo 'hard' (which is a loose term at this point, as they're all on rubbery legs after the quick early paces). A couple more laps just under 34 seconds, and they pass an almost walking Tadesse, who's now out.
Suddenly we're down to Geb and Tergat again, just like old times, who just hit 15k in 42:01. This battle will be different from their old ones, as it's not just a race to outkick the opponent, but to break them, either physically or mentally.
At 16k, Tergat looks to labor, and Geb takes off in a sprint, trying to break him. 200 meters later, he looks back and sees Tergat is still only 5 meters back. He's not broken. Geb goes like this another lap. Only 6 meter lead. Tergat just won't fade. Halfway through the third lap of Geb's sprint, he looks back and sees 6 meters still. At this point, he moves to lane two, starts beaming a huge smile, slows up, and claps his old friend on the shoulder as Tergat goes by. Geb slows to a walk as Tergat continues around the track. As Tergat comes up to lap him, Geb starts rubbing his achilles.
Tergat in his prime wins this one in just under 17k.

I realize you put a lot of effort into that, so I hate to burst your bubble like this, but you're completely wrong. Your whole premise starts with all the middle distance guys being bad at math. Really? Rudisha thinks he's going to put 200 meters on the whole field within 1000 meters? Then El G thinks the same thing about 1500 meters? In real life that simply wouldn't happen.

And why would the half marathoners be running 58:23 pace and get eliminated at 1400 meters? They're not blind. If they see that someone has put 100 meters on them early, they're going to pick up the pace.

It's going to be a marathon-like distance. The only way someone is getting away from the other best runners in the world by 200 meters is once all his competitors start hitting the wall.

200m Track Race: Run until they are lapped. Who wins?

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