200m Track Race: Run until they are lapped. Who wins?

Bekele/Geb types

5000 guy

they run 62-63 rhythm too

A 12:45 evenly paced 5k would have Bekele lapping anyone running slower than an evenly paced 13:16. So that almost eliminates the 1500 runners, but everyone else could still hang.

Instead if Bekele runs 26:40 10k pace, he would lap anyone running slower than 27:12 pace. Obviously that leaves a lot of guys.

It's going to have to be Geb running WR marathon pace until he has a 200 meter lead.

jiperama wrote:

A 12:45 evenly paced 5k would have Bekele lapping anyone running slower than an evenly paced 13:16. So that almost eliminates the 1500 runners, but everyone else could still hang.

Instead if Bekele runs 26:40 10k pace, he would lap anyone running slower than 27:12 pace. Obviously that leaves a lot of guys.

It's going to have to be Geb running WR marathon pace until he has a 200 meter lead.

Strategy might come into it though... if runners are eliminated as soon as they are lapped, then marathoners might not have the advantage if they can't keep close enough to the 5k/10k guys.

IMO, whoever wins would be the ones with the biggest range (from 5k on up). No one good is going to get eliminated in the first 3k or so, so it's gotta be a 5k/10k/marathoner with good range that runs well at all those distances (and can deal well with positive splits).

Of course, if the race went out slow and tactical just enough so that they wouldn't get eliminated, the marathoners would definitely win out as it would become a simple test of endurance.

Yeah, think about it. Geb's world record pace is ~4:40, and a decent pro miler can comfortably get under 4. That's being lapped on a 200 meter track. If Geb takes it out much faster than 4:30, he could be heading for a serious blow up. This kind of race requires very smart tactics.

It's going to be something near 5000m or 10000m (depending on who's in it) where the pace is fast enough but the race is also long enough for runners to string out. It's also important to remember that a 30 second lead doesn't mean the same thing for different paces.

Awesome question. Gotta go with a 10000m type like Bekele. Would say ideal distance is somewhere around 8000m.

"Everyone continues running until they are lapped."

Is there financial incentive not to DNF? I feel like athletes would be far more likely simply to drop out than to allow themselves to be lapped. That changes things significantly - instead of trying to open up a 400m lead on your opponents, the real goal would be to break them psychologically by convincing them that they have no chance of winning.

This challenge requires a 200 meter lead - how exactly do you see tactics coming into play in any way other than someone outlasting someone else?

You can't sneaky-sprint or fartlek your way to victory. It will be a marathon paced effort or slower that wins.

OK, suppose there are four guys in the race. The four are Geb, El G, Kenny B, and Tadese all in top shape.

Suppose further that El G, Kenny B, and Tadese get together before the race and try and develop a strategy to beat Geb. The strategy could be:

El G goes out at WR mile pace. If Geb goes at say, marathon pace, he gets lapped and loses, because marathon pace is about 35.26 per 200. 7 laps at that pace is 4:07 or so and El G just ran 8 laps plus in 3:48.

If Geb goes out just fast enough to not get lapped by El G in a mile, that would be say 7 laps in 3:48. That is (if I did the math right) 32.57 for the 200 or about 1:54:30 for the marathon. With this strategy, after the mile, I assume El G has to slow down, gets lapped and loses.

Now, Kenny B and Tadese have to also not get lapped here, so they have to be around the same 7 laps in 3:48. Suppose Kenny B now picks up the pace to WR 10000 pace, or about 31.6 per 200 and goes until he can't go anymore.

All Geb has to is not get lapped by Kenny B for the next 8000 or so. So 8000 at 31.6 per 200 is 21:04. If Geb can run 7800 in 21:03, he won't get lapped by Kenny B, and then Kenny B has to slow down at some point. 7800 in 21:03 is about 32.38 per 200 or 1:53 something for a marathon. Tadese has to not get lapped too, so he has to run about that pace. After Kenny B has shot his wad, I assume he slows, gets lapped, and loses.

Now it is just Geb and Tadese. If Tadese starts running 20K pace, his WR for 20K is 55:21, so that's about 33.2 per 200, slower than he and Geb have been running. So all Geb has to do is not get lapped over the next 10000 or so, as they have already run 9600 at an uneven pace.

So 33.2 per lap is 27:40 for 50 laps. If Geb can run 27:39 for 49 laps(9800), that's about 33.88 per 200 or about 1:59 and change for the marathon. Once Tadese is exhausted, he gets lapped and Geb wins. This whole thing assumes Geb can cope with the changes of pace, etc.

I don't see how the marathon world record holder loses this one.

The whole race would easily be changed by one person. Any mid-distance guy is gonna play to his strengths and try to lap people as soon as he can. That forces all the long distance guys to hang with sub 4 pace. I don't think there are many elite marathoners with that kind of leg speed.

I say the marathoners blow up after going out too fast and the mid-d guys die around 2 miles and it goes to a 5/10k guy

Cycling has a race called the miss and out (on the velodrome).

Every few laps the person who is last gets pulled. Interesting race to watch.

Bekele's WR 5k pace is approx. 4:03~4:04 per mile.

As long as he goes fast enough to not get lapped there is no possible way any mid distance runner could sustain a pace long enough to lap him.

Then once their out of the way he could just run 4:10's or so until everyone else can't go anymore.

I'm just not seeing how a mid distance runner could be good at this.

Clearly distance runners would always win this race.

Most of the elite distance guys can or have run close to sub 4 in the mile.

In order for a Mid Distance guy to win this the margin needed to be pulled would need to increase as the total amount of distance run does.

Realistically, a 50m lead in the first mile is FAR more difficult to achieve than a 200m lead in a 10k+ race.

Put in a 45 second 400 meter guy and he can lap almost all in 2 laps, cuts down on the field quickly.

Defintely need a wide track

Wanjiru would win.

I don't think the race will be won in the first 10k, but maybe by the half marathon mark. Depends how everyone is feeling.

If Bekele goes out and runs a 12:50 5k, that will drop a lot of people and make the tactics interesting... but it would also be a suicidal move. Realistically, guys are going to go 4:25 pace or so (half marathon WR is 4:27), maybe a little faster for the first mile, and see how long it takes for people to drop. That's 27:26 10K pace.

What would REALLY make it fun is to throw in bonuses like they have in cycling. So the first guy to pass 1 mile, 5k, 10k, etc. gets some cash, but the largest prize goes to the guy who wins the whole thing. Maybe they could make the payoff proportional to the number of guys you drop, like if you're in front when 10 guys get dropped, you win $10k. That would also be a great incentive for guys to throw in suicidal moves if they don't think they can hang with Tadese in the half marathon.

Hoppy wrote:

Put in a 45 second 400 meter guy and he can lap almost all in 2 laps, cuts down on the field quickly.

uhhhhhhhhh what? you dont think distance runners can run 1 lap in 45 seconds?

well the 400m and 800m guys would know there only chance of winning was in the first half of mile and the milers will know they have to win in the first mile otherwise there done. therefore they will start off as fast as they can and the 400m guys will run there best 400 and the mile guys will run there fastest miles. the 5k guys if still around will prob do the same. this will force the marathoners to run the first miles much faster than thier marathon race pace.

so the question is, which marothoner can best handle a super fast 5k and still be able to recover from it and do well. not neccesarily will the best marathoner win this one