Although I did not write my post to solely convince "you" of anything, I will respond kindly and with a long, long explanation in the spirit of Christmas.
I will lead with examples to get you to understand better, although whether you agree or not is not my goal. Obviously you convinced me of nothing either, hence our difference of opinion on the 5 and 10.
Most American marathoners who ended up decent did not do well in their first attempt. The key word is most. The following have not been googled, just going off memory so forgive me a second or two here or there, fair enough?
Greg Meyer ran 2:13:07 in the 1980 Detroit FP Marathon, I was there. At the time it was an American debut record. It took till April of 83' till he ran 2:09 and he never ran faster.
About a month later, Alberto Salazar predicted and ran a 2:09:41 in New York.
Alan Culpepper, 2:09:41 debut as well, but he never ran better.
Brett Gotcher ran 2:10:36 a year ago in Houston.
Ryan Hall...do I have to say it?
Now, with that said, there are way more runners who did not have banner waving debuts, aka it's not the norm.
It took Bill Rodgers 6 times to run faster than 2:19 and when he did, he smashed it with an American Record of 2:09:55. 5 marathons later he got to within 15 seconds of that time. I knew that but did google it for verification. There is a slew of others, obviously, but I am not doing all of your homework.
When Bill ran, the competition in the marathon wasn't there. When money really came into the picture, it was a way for many to get out of poverty and help their families as well as themselves. By that I mean many were capable of it but had no reason to go after the sport and only did it to get to school and back.
Now to Dathan. He is a superb athlete and quite capable.
Dathan is running during a whole different era and dealing with athletes doing amazing things.
As for his 2:14 debut in New York, it was his debut. Did you expect that smashing 2:08 was a for sure thing? Oner runner broke 2:10 that day, hence a strategic race and fast second half.
The trials. His goal was top 3, not to go out at 2:08 on that course and try to hold it from the gun, possibly failing and missing a spot.
In the games he ran against the best in the world and was 9th. I think you would agree that although it was not as hot as expected, it was still hot. What the top 2 guys did was superlative and mind boggling.
Dathan was about a minute and a half behing Lel who was 5th. Do you run your best times in the heat? In the sizzling heat of Los Angeles, Deek was 5th in just over 2:11 and I was there as well. Was he a failure? 2 years later he broke 2:08 at Boston in a virtual solo effort. But....if Dathan ran and broke 2:08 at Boston, he'd be considered a failure by this board if he was not first. Nailing the marathon on a given day these days is not an easy task.
Dathan then ran 2:10 in London and a 2:12 at NY in November. Great races, no. His best effort based off his training and previous races, no. But he did not fail at 5 marathons whether you are convinced of that or not.
His 5 and 10 times are no doubt very good times. But because of the shorter distance versus the marathon, those races are obviously more predictable. As I said, with Bekele, forget about, there's one spot gone. My point which you didn't seem to get is that he would not be in the event racing for a top 3 finish, it would be a race for 2nd or 3rd place at best and that would be on his best day. He's not beating Bekele off of a fast pace or a sprint. If, that's if Dathan dropped some serious time, then of course that would change everything.
With that said, others would have to have a bad day, many others. Dathan ran his 5000 with an even hard pace sustained throughout. It was not a raw sprint with 600, 400, or 200 to go. If it were, he would not have been 3rd in that race, yet I applaud his efforts and was jumping up and down as I watched him move up runner by runner.
With Solinsky's effort this summer in the 10,000, Dathan is now 22 seconds behind the leading American. He nows has some company in the 5000 as well with Teg, Solinsky, and Lagat, all with a few seconds of each other.
My point about the marathon, which you claim is an "old thinking" and comparing it to the Africans is just plain wrong. Here's my point. Meb had run 27:13 in 2001. Look at the talent even 6 years ago in Athens. Meb's time is about 9 seconds faster than Dathan's current pr. Up until the games in Athens, Meb had never and still has never broken 2:09. Still, Meb wisely chose the marathon even after finishing 2nd to Culpepper and only breaking 2:12 by about 20 seconds (was that a bad race as many claim Dathan's 2:11 was in 07'?).
Meb wasn't lucky that day, it's the Olympics and one cannot go strictly off the form charts for an event such as the marathon. He ran smart and my "there is time" theory came to fruition. He wasn't the 2nd faster marathoner in the field that day or even close, but he got 2nd. How do you explain that? Do you think that would have happened in the 10,000 with that talent, or the 5000 as well with the amazing kick by El Guerrouj and Bekele?
I will say that the arguement that his best event so far is the 5000 is definitely true, based off time. But my point is that I believe his best shot "at a medal" is the marathon, regardless of his current pr.
Many will disagree with my long-winded post, but I think it holds water. You may be a coach or a decent runner and I could possibly be a barely sub 2:20 marathoner from the 80's, each of us will never know. But we will have to agree to disagree because your post. which I read with an open mind. did nothing to change my thinking. Dathan's best event to medal in is the marathon if the only other choices are the 5 and 10. Now if the half-marathon were an Olympic event........let's not go there.
Have a good day.