Will Bairu beat Ritz?

Guys. The course record is 2:07:43. I believe anything is possible but these "2:06-2:08" numbers being thrown around for Ritz are not reasonable, *likely* estimates in the least bit.

2:09 flat is usually good enough to win... not to mention Paul Tergat and Martin Lel never beat that time.

The way Bairu crashes in a 10K (watch video of his 27:23 on flotrack), I'm not sure he has the fueling capable to produce a fast marathon. The guy legitimately locks up when he depletes... Ritz does not.

Ritz, 2:12:20

Bairu, 2:13:20

Lekuta,

It is not a 'fuel' issue in a 10,000m race.

Fuel-talk is over-rated for distance running. Ultras yes.

It may be true that he tied up, but his goals and race plan will be different.

In that 10k he went out with the leaders and hung on as long as possible...thats not going to be the case in NY. He'll be running within himself this time around.

For all the people that say Ritz wins no matter what just because its Simons first ever Marathon, remember when Solinsky ran his first 10 and took down the American record? I realize the marathon is a completely different beast but Simon has been patient in his training preparing for this day. He should put forth a decent effort in the 2:09-2:11 range I think.

ritz over bairu for sure. GO AMERICA!

No ducking way.

Ritz

1500- 3:42

3k- 7:39

5k- 23:56

10k- 27:22

Half- 1:00

Full- 2:10

Bairu

1500- 3:45

3k- 7:49

5k- 13:25

10k- 27:23

Half- 1:02.47

Full- novice

What chance does Bairu stand against a revitalized Ritz when the best performances of his career are all slower? Bairu is inferior in EVERY regard. If you pick him to win, you do so based on sentiment and emotion - not performance and reason.

easylegalese wrote:

Ritz

1500- 3:42

3k- 7:39

5k- 23:56

10k- 27:22

Half- 1:00

Full- 2:10

Bairu

1500- 3:45

3k- 7:49

5k- 13:25

10k- 27:23

Half- 1:02.47

Full- novice

What chance does Bairu stand against a revitalized Ritz when the best performances of his career are all slower? Bairu is inferior in EVERY regard. If you pick him to win, you do so based on sentiment and emotion - not performance and reason.

What are you talking about? Bairu is over 10min faster over 5000m.

you are an adorable child

easylegalese wrote:

you are an adorable child

uhhhh...thanks?

You need to bear in mind that Bairu has reached a new performance level this past season, while Dathan is coming off of injury problems. Has Bairu raced this year other than his 27:23 10k, 13th place at World XC and 1:02:47 half marathon (in the middle of high volume marathon training)? I think that if he'd wanted to concentrate on shorter distances this year, he could have taken a lot of time off of his 5k and under PRs and gotten them a lot closer to Dathan's. Guys with slower PRs win head-to-head races all the time. Not saying it's going to happen in New York but I think that there's a distinct possibility.

Well said, Optional and the marathon distance magnifies this possibility.

Anything can happen in the marathon and usually does.

Bairu ran 1:02:08 in Philly

Hey, WetCoast, want to admit you are wrong, again. Bairu tied up like a knot.. .his depletion issues are legendary. Train with him and you'll find out. He will figure it out and race well. Nelson surprised.

But you make it sound like he "crashed" in a 10K because of a fuel depletion issue. Surely the cause of fatigue in a 10K race is rarely fuel depletion. Maybe that happens in marathons, but in a 10K? I'm curious. Can you tell me which fuel depletes before the end of a 27 minute 10K?