Weltklasse Rupp and Solinsky 5K Predictions

diceman cometh wrote:

I don't quite understand why people are predicting Rupp to beat Solinsky, let alone set a new AR. If I remember correctly, Solinsky absolutely smoked Rupp in the 10k (easily Rupp's better distance), and since then there have been no signs of Solinsky slowing down.

I think its just a few people saying that, and it's only the people who are able to think back upon history (history is longer than 3-4 months) and understand that Wheating is a total outlier. Solinsky is not Wheating, he's been killing it for 10 years or more now, up over a hundred for several years.

He ran 12:56 a few months ago and now is a second faster in a perfect race. If he was more fit he likely would have won it or at least run 12:54.

Just because Solinsky beat Rupp in a may 10,000 doesn't mean anything in terms of late August, no more than Rupp beating Solinsky in 3000 (arguably Solinsky's better distance though I don't but that story - these guys are essentially the same from 1500-10,000, if anything with Solinskys much larger volume he should be more suited to 10,000 than Rupp. He puts in about 20% more miles).

Rupps 13:10 opener was about the equiv. of Solinsky's 13:08 2nd 5000 of the season. In Rupps 2nd/ Solinsky's 3rd Rupp ran more cautious the first 3000 or so but he looked like he was ready at 3800-4000 to see the race to the last 200 or less, same as solinsky.

Solinsky for the most part kept attacking the season from the May 10000, Rupp stepped back and took a little off the edge in order to put down a little more foundation.

Logically that would mean that since the PRE meet Rupps sharpness/race ready curve has has a steeper climb than Solinsky.

I'd predict they are very near the same fitness right now, with the edge going to Rupp because he really hasn't had a great/thrilling race this whole summer. Amateur runners don't understand the momentum factor. Momentum in elite running is easily determined because times and place against competition are very specific. The only really good one Rupp he was having, he went down. He is do for a good one. Solinsky, the odds would be against it. If he pops another race at the top of his level it will almost become a burden, something that will be extremely hard to replicate in future years.

Running, like everything in life, goes in cycles. Those who are calling for Rupp to come out on top are simply predicting the cycle to turn. It may not happen, but it is certainly not without reason or possiblity.

People tend to forget how Solinsky put on the concret boots at PRE this summer. I'd predict something more along those lines here, especially when you add in the psychological damage that would occur if he knows Rupp is having a good one, similar to what Rupp felt at Cardinal Invite in the 10000.

Rupp 12:55.1 - #2 all time

Solinsky 12:59.2 - Super dissapointed with his 3rd sub 13 of the summer. More by one person in a summer than any american ever. Equal to Rupp, Ritz and Teg combined.

Okay, can we sort this out now. Is this going to be able to view?

The last meet was a disaster, the only time I paid (and probably will ever pay) to Universal and they didn't even show the race. Garbage.

Will there be a link? At least a radio broadcast like last time or Twitter?

Thanks people. Appreciate it.

Also, what time should this race be on in the U.S.?

I just hope Rupp breaks 13. He probably still won't be able to catch a break here.

What I'd really like to see is one of these guys actually win the race. The times are nice, but if we're still getting kicked down to 4th or worse every race, that doesn't bode well for championship races.

First of all, last week was not a perfect race. The pacing was quick the first 2K, but it was erratic with 60-63 second laps. In addition it was too quick the first 2K at about 2:33/K for Solinsky who could probably max out at about 2:34/K right now with a slight negative split. The third KM was even, but slow as was the fourth. The last kilometer was much faster and Solinsky didn't quite have the strength to handle the pace buildup without going anaerobic. That's why all those guys pulled away the last 100 in a complete sprint. It was NOT a perfect time trial for Solinsky, and he can improve his time with superior pacing and a stronger finish.

Next, you're basically saying Solinsky will not have a good race because he had a good race the last time out and is going downwards in form, and even more oddly because of the "burden" it would put on him?

Solinsky went into more base training before Pre, which explained him being somewhat flat there. He's since come back to Europe in great shape and he is ready to race as we saw in Stockholm. Tell a guy like Imame Merga that you can't race well for a long period and that it's all cyclical. Solinsky has not even raced that much and has sturctured and chosen his races pretty carefully. I don't think he's shown anything to indicate that he is done, or that he reached his peak performance months ago.

oh please wrote:

I just hope Rupp breaks 13. He probably still won't be able to catch a break here.

What I'd really like to see is one of these guys actually win the race. The times are nice, but if we're still getting kicked down to 4th or worse every race, that doesn't bode well for championship races.

I'd settle for a close 4th rather than a 4th that is clearly shambling down the homestretch. This is a loaded field, any 4th would be extremely respectable. But to finish less than 1.5 seconds off the leader would be a nice confidence booster going into worlds next year.

Live Stream anywhere?

Rupp and Solinsky cross the finish line together and holding hands in 12:53.69 AR.

Here's my question: how does Solinsky improve his 5k at this point? I don't think his mile is going to get any faster, and it's definitely at the slow end for a 12:55 guy. If he improves his strength (ie, 10k) then there's a big argument for him to move up to that distance.

I don't want to be "that guy," but 3:55 is pretty slow to be trying to run 3.1 miles averaging ~4:07, considering pace shifts and a fast finish. Even prefontaine ran 3:54

For instance, its hard to expect Rupp (off a 3:57 this year) to close a 13:00 race in 2:30

I guess its hard for me to say that Solinsky isn't obviously a 10k runner

Solinksy 12:52.87

Rupp 12:58.83

Mrr82 wrote:

I'm not suggesting Rupp will beat Solinsky, but Salazar has a very good track record of helping Rupp peak at the right time. Now again i'm not saying it means Solinsky doesn't still have a peak coming. Just saying what they've done already is not neccesarily indicative of what they will do at season end. History shows Rupp throws down at his best near the end of his season.

Either way i'm excited to see how they both do. People should be thrilled we have so many runners on the verge of world class, instead we beat them down.

Stop being such a baby. If the out-of-control fanboys predictions ever came anywhere near reality Rupp would have run 12:52 by now. Hasn't happened.

I have no doubt that Rupp will eventually break 13, in his own time and in his own way.

If Rupp becomes every fanboys wet dream then good for him (I guess he already is that). I just don't see him being the best American at any stage of his career. That's not beating him down, just a fair opinion based on actual observation rather than overly optimistic fanboy desire.

What time is the race?

chillll wrote:

Here's my question: how does Solinsky improve his 5k at this point? I don't think his mile is going to get any faster, and it's definitely at the slow end for a 12:55 guy. If he improves his strength (ie, 10k) then there's a big argument for him to move up to that distance.

I don't want to be "that guy," but 3:55 is pretty slow to be trying to run 3.1 miles averaging ~4:07, considering pace shifts and a fast finish. Even prefontaine ran 3:54

For instance, its hard to expect Rupp (off a 3:57 this year) to close a 13:00 race in 2:30

I guess its hard for me to say that Solinsky isn't obviously a 10k runner

His 3:55 is from January or February, and that was back when Rupp beat him in the USATF 3K. Solinsky might be able to run faster by this point.

And Rupp has run 3:56 indoors and 3:57 outdoors this year. He's likely capable of better too.

Weird thing. I notice when anyone promotes Rupp they get labeled as a "fanboy" which you would think would be a good thing but on here is obviously meant to be derogatory. But when they promote nearly any other runner it doesn't draw that kind of energy. It really seems like there is a little cult of people who get very emotional when Rupp is promoted, and they jump out from caves and get pretty nasty.

What is that? From my observations, Rupp has a better resume behind him then pretty much any other U.S. runner had at 24 (in modern history) and actually better than most who are older than him and competing now. Why should people be told to hold their optimism as if he has not already achieved as much as the others?

I have to guess that there is no fair standard here, but rather a double standard stemming from something far more personal to the detractors than the objectivity of his running resume.

It's just 10 jackasses posting crap under 50 different names.

The majority of posters would like to see both runners do well. They may have their favorite, but not necessarily at the expense of the other.

so who wins on aggregate time?

Farah/Thompson VS. Solinsky/Rupp

Farah 12:55/Thompson 13:07

Solinsky 12:57/Rupp 13:05

It'll be close, but I don't see Rupp challanging Farah and Solinsky

NO WAY WILL RUPP BREAK 13:00.

Who says he's in sub 13 shape anyway? Sub 13 is incredibly good, only a few non-Africans have ever managed it. I hope Rupp makes me eat my words, but sub 13 is not to be taken lightly. I hope Mo Farah can do it (see prediction above), but it is still only maybe a 50/50 shot- weather, pacing, fresh legs etc all have to right on the day.

I remember reading an article when Rupp was in high school and Salazar was talking about having him on an underwater treadmill with an oxygen mask that made him feel like he was at 10,000 feet or something like that. And I remember thinking to myself: "wow, no other high school kid in the country is doing that or has the resources to do that, and this Rupp kid is pretty girly looking." A few thousand more people have those same kinds of thoughts and there's your cult. Less of a cult and more of a fairly substantial percentage of running fans.

For the record I root for Rupp, but pretty much only because he's American.

That's because you are a narrow, judgemental idiot!

I am so tired of the Rupp bashing (I would share all his good luck and training methods to aim for an AR attempt if I had the option), I will chime in with a

12:49.9 Rupp

and a great race by Solinsky.

My eye had Rupp moving up before the fall, and who knows that he might not have helped Solinsky move up even more with another American pressing him. They are certainly not the enemies some of you are.

The only catch is that this is a Diamond League final with big stakes for a few runners, and that could result in a tactical race.