Which current track WR will last the longest?

master tactician wrote:

Can't believe nobody has mentioned the Hicham El Guerrouj 2000m WR of 4:44.79. He went 2:21.07 for the second 1000m in that race. Wowzers.

I second that. The 2000 m is so rarely run also.

Not a track record, but Zelezny's 98.48m basically exists in a parallel universe compared to what anyone around today is capable of.

The only guy who had a prayer of even coming close was Breaux Greer, and he only had about 4-5 throws in him each year before he needed more shoulder surgery.

If you google javelin wr, a youtube link comes up to Hohn's and Zelezny's throws.

Amazing how close Hohn's comes to going out the end of the pitch! Zelezny's is also very close.

Les wrote:

Honestly, I think most of the women's records will be very hard to break since almost all are held by dopers. I think only the pole vault might be broken in the near future (an event that requires a lot of skill).

seems right, considering Yelena Isinabayeva is still competing

(only replying for the men, and excluding field events)

the 10k track wr will last the longest.

Although every track wr is impressive, I think the 400m, 800m, 1500m and mile are such marquee events (and even the 1k, 2k) somebody out there wants the glory and is gonna hedge the prime of their life to get those marks. I also feel the same way about the 5k--while nobody has run close to the progression of two Ethiopian world record times for the 5k in a while, I feel like there has got to be some dynamic brewing among budding distance studs.

that leaves it a tossup, imo, between the 3k, 2-mile and 10k track wrs. The middle distance record is unbelievable, even for the convergence of a great cauldron of 1500m and 5k runners, but it's still meaningful and its going to intersect with someone's destiny in the future. On the other hand, while there are distance studs out there among the african contingents, xc guys and junior track guys with boundless potential, I just don't see organizers and athletes really coming together to get some rabbits and go way down low to the low low 26 minutes. The last time that happened was the record holder himself's attempt.

I didn't mention the 400m hurdles or 3k steeplechase because I think those events deserve special consideration.

3k has always been my favorite world record/the one completely out of reach. I always thought the 800 was up there too, but seeing how Rudisha has run gets me thinking it will go down, that or Kaki in a couple years.

the 3k is just beyond nuts, average something like 58-59 seconds just linking back to back sub 4's is nuts. komen was out of the world at that time he was running those.

also, I think the 1k by Ngeny is an incredible one of reach too

The women's 400 (47.60) and 800 (1:53.28) are already the longest-standing (1985 and 1983, respectively) and don't like to be in any jeopardy by anyone now running. Sanya Richard's 48.70 is the fastest in the last 10 years, and I think the only sub-49 in that time. Pamela Jelimo looked to be closing in two years ago (1:54.01) but hasn't been near that since. Maybe Caster Semenya if she could get back to where she was last year. The women's 1,500 (3:50.46) is also far below what anyone is currently running. Of course, that was part of the 1993 Chinese thing.

However they did it, those Eastern European 400/800 women's records are just nuts.

Jav, 3k, 400h

i hate to say this because as a fan, i believe all runners to be innocent until there is significant evidence against the athlete (example sending 7k checks to a company that gets caught distributing steroids).

but basically the athletes will stay the same, improvement in knowledge of training will produce more depth which equals a better chance of getting more world record holders. also the worlds population will greatly increase.

the thing that will cause the greatest improvement will be the PED's will be a LOT superior to anything that has ever been used, example most people think the chinese were using PED's in 1993 and 1997 when they ran those times and also had great depth, if the chinese girl wang junxia ran 3:51 for 1500 and 8:06 for 3k and 29:31 for 10k while also running faster than the world record at the time in the 1500 and 3k heats AND final, and qu yunxia ran 3:50 for 1500 and 8:12 for 3k and a 1:55 for 800 and she also was faster than the 1500 and 3k records in the heats AND final,

then why cant there be runner with at least as much talent, more advanced training AND PED'S that are MUCH MORE ADVANCED then whatever they were using in 1993 and 1997 (presuming they were taken PED's).

by 2100 all the current records will be long gone, in my opinion.

3k.

Also, why do doctors still use pagers instead of cell phones?

Bill Huntington wrote:

Sanya Richard's 48.70 is the fastest in the last 10 years, and I think the only sub-49 in that time.

Didnt Ana Guevara go 48.89 in 2003?

The Womens 3k record is so off this planet, and really shouldnt be allowed to stand.

8.06! Thats just nuts. 4.03 for 1500m is a very strong time for an elite woman. Imagine doing that twice! Theres just no way a clean athlete can break that.

In 1994 (1 year later) Sonia O'Sullivan ran 8.21.64 which at the time was the fastest non-Chinese time ever (clean world record). Since then only 1 person has gone faster, Gabriela Szabo (one just one occasion, and just 0.2 seconds faster). She is the only one to surpass this time. No Africans have done so. No Defar, no Dibaba.

Yet Wang has run 15 seconds faster than Sonia O'Sullivan's time. Its pure crazy! That record will not be touched for a long long time.

No men's records will ever be broken again. We have reached the edge of human limitations.

It looks like its time we all moved on to ultra marathons to see if we can bring those down a bit.

Currently older records are interesting because there have been many doped athletes competing since they were set, who haven't been able to break them.

That suggests that future dopers won't be as likely to break them, and using that logic, the currently older a record now is, the less likely it is that it will be broken in the future.

There's an Argentinian boy named Braian Toledo. He's 16yrs old and managed 89.34 with 700gr model.

Some sources said that he just managed 82 meters with 800gr model in practice, but coaches aren't planning pro- meetings for him this year.

He's the next Uwe Hohn...based on youtube videos, I predict to him +100mts

Men's Javelin is going to be around for a long long time. Not only is it 20+ feet farther than anyone is throwing or has thrown in the past decade, but the record itself is a good 10 feet in front of the 2nd best throw in history (also by the same guy).

Women's 100 Hurdles, its just too damn fast and too damn short of a race for anyone to break that record.

3k record a joke wrote:In 1994 (1 year later) Sonia O'Sullivan ran 8.21.64 which at the time was the fastest non-Chinese time ever (clean world record). Since then only 1 person has gone faster, Gabriela Szabo (one just one occasion, and just 0.2 seconds faster). She is the only one to surpass this time. No Africans have done so. No Defar, no Dibaba

defar's 8'58.58 with standard 1.08 conversion ->

8'18.7

Are you joking? 20 year life span on world records? You're not a track fan, you're a female.