No way Lagat will beat Bekele in the 5k

empty boat wrote:

How is that worthy of anything less than our respect? It's not like some 16:00 flat guy came on here and said "I will beat Bekele: I will not stop until I reach my goal." Lagat recently lost to Bekele by inches. What kind of lame, defeatist crap would it be for him to go "Oh, I lost to him by a few tenths. . . there's no way I can beat him."

Folks seem to forget the fact that when Lagat defeated Bekele, He (Bekele) was coming from 10K attempting to double a 5K.

This time around, Bekele a) came off an injury

b) was in the middle of Golden League Jackpot race (the strategy being to win with the minimal energy expenditure) c) was doubling from an earlier brutally fast 10K (ran with Tadesse)

d) was scheduled to run race #5 just four days after the 5K race.

So with all these facts lurking in the background, for Lagat to be saying that garbage is ridiculous. If he didn't beat Bekele under all the above conditions, there is no way in hell he'd beat him ever.

Selassie wrote:

Folks seem to forget the fact that when Lagat defeated Bekele, He (Bekele) was coming from 10K attempting to double a 5K.

eh?

Selassie wrote:

Folks seem to forget the fact that when Lagat defeated Bekele, He (Bekele) was coming from 10K attempting to double a 5K.

what about when lagat beat him in london (2006)?

Norwich Union London Grand Prix: Lagat Stungs Bekele, Dibaba Remains Unbeaten

By Bob Ramsak

(c) 2006 Race Results Weekly, all rights reserved

July 28, 2006

LONDON – While Bernard Lagat may not entirely agree, his stunning victory over world record holder Kenenisa Bekele at the Norwich Union London Grand Prix signaled that there is a new kid on the block in the men’s 5000.

With a blistering sub-52 second final lap, the two-time Olympic 1500 meter medallist kicked to an impressive 12:59.22 win, well ahead of the Ethiopian’s 13:00.04. Yet despite his commanding victory, Lagat insists that he’s still a miler who is making occasional visits to the longer distance.

(...)

When Bekele made his decisive move with 500 to go --a move Lagat predicted -- Lagat simply stepped it up a notch as he approached the bell. “I knew that it wouldn’t have to be a rush to take lead. Just picking it up gradually and getting ready for the sprint.”

“I had a lot left,” Lagat said, suggesting that the 82/100s of a second victory margin was a bit deceiving. “With two laps to go I was very confident. I knew that if it was going to come down to a kick that I’d be very comfortable with that. It was like running the 1500 again.”

(...)

Lagat is quoted saying, "It's not speed. I have that." I hear coaches and athletes talk about speed all the time. Wouldn't it be nice if we have something that displays daily, in workouts, how fast athletes are going? How does Lagat know he has "speed?" What does he have to measure and compare his speed to know that he has enough of it?

depends what year that quote refers to

if it's this year, well, he doesn't have much speed

if it refers to his 3'26 prime then he had fantastic speed

besides, most of these guys do fast runs in training :

hicham has a derisory 1'47pb which doesn't indicate much speed for a 1500 guy, but it's alleged he had a 1'42.7 in training - that told him he had all the speed in the world !!!

2010 kenenisa plan is to break EL G 1500 INDOOR WORLD RECORD AND out door 3000k daneil koman WR

That was one f4cking race. How many more times has Lagat beat Kenny B?

what a ludicrous contention. Competition is not a math test! If things always went to form, we wouldn't need to watch the races.

Now, some 15min 5k guy declaring he was going to try to beat Bekele would be silly. But Lagat? Come on- it might not be likely, but that's kind of the point, isn't it?

Does everyone here set pathetic, miniscule goals for themselves because they're "realisitic?"

I think some of you have forgotten what the great Zatopek had to say about this: "A runner must run with dreams in his heart."

If Bekele and Lagat raced 100 times, Bekele might win 99 of those times. But who's to say that one in a hundred shot won't happen in a major final or in a 12:45 race? Who's to say that Lagat won't have one of those wonderful, effortless sort of days we've all had at one point at the same time Bekele is feeling crappy one day? Of course it isn't likely. . . but it isn't impossible either.

I'm inspired by Lagat's motivation- after a long and extremely successful career, he's refusing to just fade into the distance quietly. Instead, he's still challenging himself with difficult goals and new directions. I think we could all learn something from that kind of tenacity, even if we don't apply that lesson to running specifically.