No way Lagat will beat Bekele in the 5k

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  • Runner77
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    10 years ago 10/01/2009 10:39pm CDT
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    Let's take into account the quote on the let's run home page:
    Quote Of The Day

    "I was able to do this with Bekele, follow him in the 5K, follow him in the 3k, always being close. I'm thinking, ‘You know, I'm really only training for the 1500 and I can do this.' Think about Bekele. He's training for his specialty, which is 5K and 10K and I'm getting close. Think about what happens if I add more to what I am doing or cut what I am doing for the 1500 and put more on the 5000-meter training."

    The thing Lagat is not taking into consideration is that Bekele was just messing with him on these occasions. He will probably go from much further out. I dont think Bekele is far off from the world record shape he was back in 2004. I think Bekele will wisen up and just take off from 3 or 4 laps instead of one lap. Either way I dont see him losing to Lagat. He is just out of his prime. Maybe in his prime he could have beaten him and there is chance he will beat him in a race or 2, but no way he dominates Bekele unless he is injured. I feel like Bekele has a lot more motivation to be the best ever these days with Bolt getting all the attention. And you know he doesn't want to have to deal with comparisons to the Ethiopian emperor of long distance running.
  • nightline
    10 years ago 10/01/2009 11:44pm CDT
    re: Runner77
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    Lagat didn't have the kick to beat Bekele while doing quality 1500m work, so he sure won't have it when he does quantity 5000m work. But barring injury, Ritz's AR will probably go down.
  • Run on sentencer
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 1:12am CDT
    re: nightline
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    I agree, there's no way that geezer is going to beat Kenenisa. He can't even outkick him in a slowish race, and he sure as hell will never hang with him in a 12:50 type race. I wouldn't even be so sure of the AR, certainly possible but definitely not a lock.
  • Terminator X
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    10 years ago 10/02/2009 1:13am CDT
    re: nightline
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    nightline wrote:

    Lagat didn't have the kick to beat Bekele while doing quality 1500m work, so he sure won't have it when he does quantity 5000m work. But barring injury, Ritz's AR will probably go down.

    So then he should be doing 800 work if he wants to outkick Bekele?

    Kicks in distance races are built on aerobic endurance and strength, not raw speed. Raw speed is not what's keeping Lagat from beating Bekele. I think it's safe to say that Lagat has faster all-out 400 speed than Bekele, regardless of whether he's doing 1500m training or 5000m training. He's not going to lose much of that by training for the 5000. What he's going to gain (in theory) is the aerobic capacity and strength to allow him to come closer to his top-end speed at the end of a 5000. Granted I'm not claiming that he will or will not be able to beat Bekele off of 5000m specific training, but his chances should certainly increase.
  • Terminator X
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    10 years ago 10/02/2009 1:20am CDT
    re: nightline
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    On top of that, if you assume his coach knows what he's doing (a safe assumption), wouldn't it only be logical to assume that by doing 5000m specific training he'd be better at it than he would if he was doing 1500m specific training? The only way you can think otherwise is if you think his coach doesn't know how to coach 5000m runners.
  • oh snap
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 1:40am CDT
    re: Runner77
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    Yes, Lagat lost to Bekele by tiny fractions of a second, but i think we should recall that BEKELE WAS COMING INTO THIS SEASON OFF OF AN INJURY.

    So, yes, Lagat will be better if he trains for the 5000m, BUT Bekele will also have become better starting his season off healthy.
  • ventolin^2
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 1:51am CDT
    re: Terminator X
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    Terminator X wrote:I think it's safe to say that Lagat has faster all-out 400 speed than Bekele, regardless of whether he's doing 1500m training or 5000m training. He's not going to lose much of that by training for the 5000

    the crux of your argument is "not going to lose much"

    how much is crucial

    if he's currently 49s & drifts out to 50, then he's stuffed against kennster

    the holy grail is to keep 400 speed whilst improving 5k, but that's why it's the holy grail & not going to happen

    he trains for 5k & his raw speed deteriorates & his kick gets worse
  • nightline
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 2:07am CDT
    re: Terminator X
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    His kick is not going to get any better than right now as a miler!

    This year: 13:03 runner with a 53 second last lap vs. Bekele's 12:52 w/ a 52 second last lap.

    Next year: 12:50 runner with a 53 second last lap vs. Bekele shooting to break 12:37.

    The OP is right...no way Lagat will beat Bekele in the 5k!
  • ventolin^2
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 2:18am CDT
    re: ventolin^2
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    actually, trying


    http://www.jundo.co.uk/


    we get some insight

    i'd reckon bernie is good value for 49.5 / 13'00 currently

    now, 5k is 12.5 the distance of 400m & if we use ballpark value that if he sacrifices 0.25s over 400m, he'd like x12.5 compensation for that over 5k = 0.25 * 12.5 = 3.125s, call it 3s

    therefore, worth trying

    49.50 / 13'00 , 49.75 / 12'57 , 50.00 / 12'54... & see where that gets us

    49.50 / 13'00 -> 1'46.08 , 3'30.94 , 7'28.43 , 27'28.51

    49.75 / 12'57 -> 1'46.31 , 3'30.92 , 7'27.38 , 27'19.14
    50.00 / 12'54 -> 1'46.54 , 3'30.89 , 7'26.32 , 27'09.78
    50.25 / 12'51 -> 1'46.77 , 3'30.87 , 7'25.26 , 27'00.42
    50.50 / 12'48 -> 1'47.00 , 3'30.84 , 7'24.21 , 26'51.06
    50.75 / 12'45 -> 1'47.24 , 3'30.82 , 7'23.15 , 26'41.70
    51.00 / 12'42 -> 1'47.47 , 3'30.80 , 7'22.09 , 26'32.33
    51.25 / 12'39 -> 1'47.70 , 3'30.77 , 7'21.04 , 26'22.97

    51.50 / 12'36 -> 1'47.93 , 3'30.75 , 7'19.98 , 26'13.61

    a quite remarkable conclusion :

    his 1500m ability will remain virtually unchanged under this scenario !!!
  • Runner77
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    10 years ago 10/02/2009 2:27am CDT
    re: nightline
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    Lagat is amazing though especially for his age, but Kenenisa is just too strong and still in his prime.
    I'd love to see a 5k Kenenisa vs. Lagat vs. Gebrselassie vs. Kipchoge vs. Daniel Komen in their prime.
  • MAPIV
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 2:47am CDT
    re: ventolin^2
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    Ventolin, in 2004 Eliud Kipchoge ran 3:33.20, 3:50.40, 7:27.72, and 12:46.53.

    It would seem that either he has more potential in the 1500 than he has shown, or alternatively, he has the profile of a guy who could run a tremendous 10000. He ran 26:49 in 2007, but it looks like he could be a 26:25-26:30 guy. What do you think?
  • ventolin^2
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 3:24am CDT
    re: MAPIV
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    trying to find the most basic line of fit can take hours

    best is to try the 400/800 numbers as all distance runners have an intrinsic 400/800 ability when they step on the track

    he'd have to be 51+ ( from experience ) & the 800 will have to be somewhere around 1'48

    you'd have to try 0.05s variations in each to get best fit & that will take hours

    i haven't time for that, so i normally try 0.1 - 0.2s variations depending on how much time i want to spend on it

    prelim try with :

    51.00 / 1'48.00 -> 3'32.70 , 3'49.43 , 7'27.91 , 12'54.14 , 27'03.29

    the 12'54 tells us that is wrong, so we either have to slow his 51.00 or speed up his 1'48.00

    try the 2 scenarios :

    slow 51.00 by 0.10s :

    51.10 / 1'48.00 -> 3'32.36 , 3'49.03 , 7'26.47 , 12'50.84 , 26'54.18

    the 5k is still too slow : add another 0.10

    51.20 / 1'48.00 -> 3'32.02 , 3'48.62 , 7'25.04 , 12'47.53 , 26'45.07

    still 5k is too slow : now go in 0.05s increments

    51.25 / 1'48.00 -> 3'31.85 , 3'48.42 , 7'24.33 , 12'45.88 , 26'40.52

    51.30 / 1'48.00 -> 3'31.68 , 3'48.22 , 7'23.61 , 12'44.23 , 26'35.96

    either of last 2 lines looks a reasonable fit ( if you aren't happy with the 3k - look up saidi sief )

    2nd scenario : speed up the 800

    initially with 0.2s decrease

    51.00 / 1'47.80 -> 3'31.99 , 3'48.62 , 7'25.72 , 12'49.59 , 26'51.68

    now try 0.1s

    51.00 / 1'47.70 -> 3'31.63 , 3'48.22 , 7'24.63 , 12'47.31 , 26'45.87

    another 0.1s

    51.00 / 1'47.60 -> 3'31.27 , 3'47.82 , 7'23.54 , 12'45.03 , 26'40.07

    so we boil down to 3 initial fits :

    51.25 / 1'48.00 -> 3'31.85 , 3'48.42 , 7'24.33 , 12'45.88 , 26'40.52

    51.30 / 1'48.00 -> 3'31.68 , 3'48.22 , 7'23.61 , 12'44.23 , 26'35.96

    51.00 / 1'47.60 -> 3'31.27 , 3'47.82 , 7'23.54 , 12'45.03 , 26'40.07

    & tweak those some more

    my gut feeling is the middle line to work on : expected 5k, expected 3k , expected 10k ( this one swayed me somewhat : you'd expect something in the 26'30s for a 12'46 guy ) & finally, the 1500/mile is somewhat faster than he ran ( as expected ), but not ludicrously so
  • yyy
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 3:29am CDT
    re: Runner77
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    Lagat is suffering from being aerobically challenged. This is more common to white milers than east Africans. Mottram, Walker, Scott and Cram are good examples. With his speed, Mottram "should" have been running 12.50.
  • MAPIV
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 3:33am CDT
    re: ventolin^2
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    I would surmise from this that Kipchoge is similar to Sihine, and that without the big dog Bekele around, a healthy Sihine and Kipchoge would be a great match at 10,000.
  • Terminator X
    registered
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 4:01am CDT
    re: ventolin^2
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    ventolin^2 wrote:


    the crux of your argument is "not going to lose much"

    how much is crucial

    if he's currently 49s & drifts out to 50, then he's stuffed against kennster

    the holy grail is to keep 400 speed whilst improving 5k, but that's why it's the holy grail & not going to happen

    he trains for 5k & his raw speed deteriorates & his kick gets worse

    You're all idiots. Who has the better kick in a 5k, Bekele or Kaki? Bekele, of course. Why? Kaki has better speed, shouldn't he have the better kick? No, because by the time the final lap comes around he's too drained and Bekele is still feeling fresh.

    If Lagat's 1500m training top 400m speed is 48 and his 5000m top 400m speed is 49, but by increasing his aerobic capacity he's able to close his final 400 at 95% his max speed instead of 90%, he'd be closing in a 51.5 as compared to 53.3. It's not that hard. Hell, you've pretty much got to concede that Lagat has better raw speed than Bekele, but we all agree Bekele can outkick him. Why? His monstrous aerobic capacity allows him to run incredibly close to his absolute top-end speed after having already run 11.5 laps.

    Man, it's like you've never even ran before.
  • MAPIV
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 4:11am CDT
    re: Terminator X
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    No, I do not concede that the almost 35 year old Lagat has better raw speed than Bekele. He might. However, 3 years ago, he clearly did, and he outkicked Bekele because he was aerobically strong and had more basic speed. Now, it appears that age has leveled the basic speed playing field, and Bekele's aerobic superiority wins out.
  • MAPIV
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 5:19am CDT
    re: MAPIV
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    To reinforce my point: at WAF 3000, they crept through 2000 at 8:30 pace, and then Bekele charged home in 2:23 for last 1000. Lagat should also have been jogging at 5:40 at 2000, and so he has clearly not got the edge in speed over Bekele that he had at one time. ElG, Morceli, and Lagat in his prime would have crushed Bekele off the 5:40 opening 2000, likely finishing in 2:20 or possibly faster.
  • Terminator X
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    10 years ago 10/02/2009 5:38am CDT
    re: MAPIV
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    Ugh, I keep forgetting how old Lagat is. My intention wasn't so much to argue whether Lagat could/could not beat Bekele, my intention was to argue against the moronic "doing 5k specific training will weaken his kick/worsen his chances in the 5k" mindset.
  • emes
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 7:15am CDT
    re: Terminator X
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    lagat is dumb, it's not like the times hes raced bekele he was going all out, simply just running to win, if bekele wanted to he could just string lagat out with 3 laps to go and not just wait till the last lap
  • emes
    10 years ago 10/02/2009 7:16am CDT
    re: Terminator X
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    lagat is dumb, it's not like the times hes raced bekele he was going all out, simply just running to win, if bekele wanted to he could just string lagat out with 3 laps to go and not just wait till the last lap