Centro vs Fernandez over 1500m?

Well I have to say that Centro is thee best "cherry picker" 1500m racer out there. He is never one to push the race, he lets the race come to him. Personaly I would like to see him grow some balls and run like Rupp, and not be afraid to keep up the work with the other Top runners, and help run good fast times. But since he likes to cherry pick, it may come back to haunt him, he may end up getting boxed in from a pair of college teamates at Nats.

You clearly have never run or coached a championship 1500 (at least successfully).

J.R. wrote:

Running from the front, you only need a .001 second advantage.

Didn't you watch the video of the PAC 10 championships? Centro went to the lead with 300 meters to go, and he pushed the pace for the final 300 meters. No, he's not a cherry picker, but you obviously are a nose picker.

Fernandez is a better runner. That's already been established. That being the case, he will dictate the pace even if he is not in the front. If you think he has to try to pull away from the beginning you are dumb. He will settle in at second or third, regardless of pace. Then, he will start a long sustained kick with 400 out, 600 out if it is really slow. Just like El Guerrouj use to do. That's what you do when you are a second or two better than everybody else. Do you think El Geurrouj had better closing speed than Heshko or Cacho? Hell no. But thanks to his long kick they never beat him. 3:30 or 3:40, they never beat him.

Yes but Fernandez isn't a second or two faster than everybody else.

Hello People wrote:

Yes but Fernandez isn't a second or two faster than everybody else.

Hello, he broke the NCAA indoor mile record. He ran 3:55 on a 200-meter indoor track. If you think that is not worth 3:35-36 outdoors you are fooling yourself.

Let me see. Centro ran a good indoor mile...while training through the indoor season.

He had a coming out party at Stanford. (Did anyone notice how smooth and unstrained he seemed the last 500, and how unstrained he was the last 100 meeters? How under his legs and smooth he was, almost non-chalant, this kid is a very smooth controlled, efficient, and intelligent Racer!

And, He Hates To Lose.

And, unlike Fernandez, he hasn't spent the last 6 months running in races that were sure wins, or sure non-wins.

I vote for Centro.

We can't just hand the race to anybody..both German and Centro included. If German runs the 1500 at nats, which we're all assuming he will, I see it playing out like the year Lopez Lomong won it. Remember Pifer taking it out hard for the first 1200, Manzano sitting on his ass, with Lomong in about 4th to 5th but in contact? at 300 to go Manzano took off, Pifer chugging away, spent. Everyone else followed Manzano, and in the finall 100 Lomong comes flying by for the win.

In this scenario replay:

Fernandez = Pifer

Emanuel = Manzano

Centro = Lomong.

That's how I see it playing out. Of course, I, along with the rest of you here, could very well be wrong. Eh. Who cares. I just want to see some good honest racing.

midwest regional

1500m semis - fri may29 4:20pm

5000m final - fri may29 9:00pm

1500m final - sat may30 5:30pm

I see Fernandez running this double, then doubling at the ncaa finals,

because the events are on different days at the ncaa finals.

ncaa schedule

5000m semis - wed jun10 9:25pm

1500m semis - thu jun11 8:10pm

5000m final - fri jun12 8:40pm

1500m final - sat jun13 1:21pm

You really think German is no better than Pifer. He ran 3:55 solo. If Pifer could have done that I don't think he wouldn't be spent after the first 1200. We saw what Manzano did last year. IF you are the most fit athlete you can lead, and show well. I don't know if Fernandez wins at nats, but I guarantee even if he leads for 1200 he will end up no worse than a close third or fourth unlike Pifer who finished a distant 11'th.

Lord Dooku wrote:

Fernandez is a better runner. That's already been established. That being the case, he will dictate the pace even if he is not in the front. If you think he has to try to pull away from the beginning you are dumb. He will settle in at second or third, regardless of pace. Then, he will start a long sustained kick with 400 out, 600 out if it is really slow. Just like El Guerrouj use to do. That's what you do when you are a second or two better than everybody else. Do you think El Geurrouj had better closing speed than Heshko or Cacho? Hell no. But thanks to his long kick they never beat him. 3:30 or 3:40, they never beat him.

you're clearly stuck in the midwest. have you ever seen fernandez really kick? i don't mean a pretty fast kick compared to his tired competitors, i mean a :26 second last 200 or :52 second last quarter? he has burned off average competitors over a mile by running even and he took out ulrey in the first meet of the indoor season in a good time, but again, it wasn't all that much of a kick. it was passing a guy who would have been training very hard that week after sitting on him for most of the race.

until german hits a good mark outdoors he is only as good as his 3:55 indoors. what has he done outdoors that is better than that in any way?

centro has done 3:36 and he has outkicked great kickers both there and at pac 10's. he finished just about the same amount ahead of wheating as he was with a lap to go. he was the only guy in pac-10s to do that. centro slipped past guys on the first corner who were in :53 second mode and he did it on the outside. he made it look effortless. it was like he threw a rubber band around rupp and just slingshotted up to him, sat for a second, went around and held everyone off for the last 270.

that was damn impressive.

i think fernandez has a real shot, but he'll need to hope that people are off and he'll need to be ready to run a 3:34 type race.

Poker wrote:

You really think German is no better than Pifer. He ran 3:55 solo. If Pifer could have done that I don't think he wouldn't be spent after the first 1200. We saw what Manzano did last year. IF you are the most fit athlete you can lead, and show well. I don't know if Fernandez wins at nats, but I guarantee even if he leads for 1200 he will end up no worse than a close third or fourth unlike Pifer who finished a distant 11'th.

it's a strange thing that happens when you believe you can win and guys start going by you. look at coe at pac-10's. there are countless examples of this. german doesn't finish all that well when he's lost contention to win a race. not unlike meb and abdi.

The Coe example doesn't make much sense to me. That's in a slow race and we are assuming that German is leading and thus it will be fast. I don't know where you're getting that last part of your post. Races he hasn't won- FL's, World XC's(twice), 13:30 5k vs. Derrick & Co. not going to count XC races when he was tempoing. You could argue he didn't finish well at Foot Lockers, but he beat a host of great runners, and in retrospect it wasn't that bad a race. He ran well in World Xc's twice despite being out of contention. In that 5K, his finish wasn't bad and he didn't rig at the end as he just lost to guys who had kicks left. He clearly was not as fit as them yet evidenced by him falling back and then having to bust hard to rejoin Mead, Derrick and Jager. You definitely have little if any rationale to say that he's going to rig awfully if say Centro rolls by him with 300 to go when he's leading. In fact, the only race we've seen like that is when he beat Coe in the 3000.

No i dont think German finishes 11th. I just think Centro and Emanuel can both hang on his fast pace and outkick him. Emanuel has shown he likes the long drive 600-500 in both indoors (which was really like an 800 drive) and at Stanford. And Centro has shown he likes the 300-200 kick. Both have run as fast as German (3:37 roughtly = 3:55) based on time alone.

I know German had no comp, but that has never seemed to slow him down. Can he kick with these guys? I don't know. The only "kick" I've ever seen him drop was the indoor 3k at UW against Coe, and it wasn't like he was blazing. He just had more left than Coe, who was starting to really labor in the final 150 of that race. Personally, I think Centro and Emanuel (possibly a few others) are just as fast as or faster than German over 1500m, they can hang on him if he sets the fast pace, and then outkick him to home. I do NOT, however, see German fading like Pifer did in that race in 07. He'll maintain, but probably does not have the shear speed to keep up.

I agree with a lot of this. It's pretty hard to really compare outdoor 1500 marks with an indoor mile.

All we know is that they all have basically shown to be around 3:55 milers or faster. And by all there are about 5 guys in this range (not including wheating since we don't know if he'll do the double).

The indoor race with Coe saw Coe doing some leading going into the final laps and German going around him at the end, much like the mile against Ulrey first meet out. Just basically outsustaining people AFTER german had sat behind them and gathered for a kick.

Emmanuel has peaked and is showing signs of distress. He was thoroughly beaten at MWC - by several no names.

With regards to German, someone else mentioned he will lead and Ulrey will chase him down. The only problem is that when he leads he makes it count - the pace will be hot for more than just a lap. This means within the first 50 meters - the other contenders will have to make the decision of staying with him or he's gone.

Centro has a very patient racing style. He doesn't panic and can wait - a very mature runner. Because of this, I have to give him the thumbs up for the win. If we see a Centro-German dual in the 1500m it will be very reminiscent of the race between El g and Stephen Cherono in the 5000m many years ago.

I don't know, maybe his fitness is off for the biggest meets he's been involved in. He killed Derrick and Puskedra at USA JR's in XC, yet both closed way down on him at worlds. Derrick finished that 5K spent, while german finished it, basically just beaten.

It's not uncommon for guys who really want to win to give in when they start getting passed or realize in the beginning that they are off. Coe was simply one recent example but it happens ALL the time. When was the last time you saw German finish a race for a hard fought 2nd or 3rd? It's either on or off.

NCAA's will be the best test because unlike world cross he has a good chance to be in the hunt, and unlike a lot of his junior races and races within his conference there will be worthy competition for him.

Trust me, I hope he can learn to fight hard when a victory is less than 99% assured because a lot of guys don't.

In no way am I saying Fernandez will definitely win, but I think you guys are underestimating his kick. His first race of indoor - first since going down at XC Nats and missing training - he closed in 56 off of a 3:00 first 3/4. Now maybe Ullrey wasn't 100% or whatever, but 56 is not bad off of a decent pace in your first race of the season, and your first mid-distance race in about 8-9 months. Whether or not he can run 52 at the end of a 3:51, I think it's safe to say he'll be able to close in 55 off of a solid pace. Centro and a few others probably can too, which is why it'll be a good race.

There is no need to rest for 75% of the race and then kick at the finish.

The race is for 1500 meters.