German will be out of his league at worlds. He will go out too hard believing a little too much in his abilities and not know how to not win and still run well. Luke Puskedra will be running for top 20 and will catch him and be the first junior in 17th place.
He'll be the first junior across the line - yet finish 9th behind 8 over-age Africans and everyone at Letsrun will be too scared to say anything about the obviously over-age "juniors". Because they're African.
Will there maybe a chance of him pulling out either early in the race or in the last 1km?
IMHO, the only way anyone can make a reasonable place-based prediction is to research the competition. And has anyone on this thread done that? I mean, how many of the podium-grabbers at World Juniors have you known before the event was held? Unless you are a keen observer of Kenyan, Ethiopian, Tanzanian, Eritrean, etc., junior athletics, then you will most likely have never heard of these guys.
So, my prediction is N/A (not applicable).
possibility wrote:
German will be out of his league at worlds. He will go out too hard believing a little too much in his abilities and not know how to not win and still run well. Luke Puskedra will be running for top 20 and will catch him and be the first junior in 17th place.
Puskedra will be the third US junior across the line, bank on it.
ethiopia and kenya hold their trials this weekend, so we weill know some of the competion then
Worlds is not until March 28th this year, which is still 5+ weeks away. I'm curious as to what Fernandez' goals for outdoor track are. He's obviously very capable across the board for just about any distance, meaning, I think he could be a contender in any race over 800m if he wants to be. He's run one of the leading indoor times for a mile, a 7:44 3k, and he's obviously in good xc 8k shape. He wouldn't be able to beat Rupp at 10k, possibly wouldn't even be able to run under 28, not that I wouldn't put it past him, but if he's going to training for the 8k at worlds, where does that leave his training for outdoors? will he go for the 15, 5k, or steeple even? i think with his kicking ability and endurance, the 5k would suit him very well, but who knows, maybe they'll have him double. i dont know good an idea that would be, but it will be interesting to see what route he takes come outdoors.
haha, YO wrote:
possibility wrote:German will be out of his league at worlds. He will go out too hard believing a little too much in his abilities and not know how to not win and still run well. Luke Puskedra will be running for top 20 and will catch him and be the first junior in 17th place.
Puskedra will be the third US junior across the line, bank on it.
What I'm banking on is Lanana and Luke doing just what they did last fall, being ready at the right time for the right race! I actually think that Luke finishing 3rd at Junior Nationals as he starts his 2009 campaign is a good sign. He's rusty but still running well. Luke never had a step of his 2008 season behind Derrick except at the end of a couple races since Luke was going out with the leaders and Derrick was going out more conservative and catching him at the end.
The result of junior nationals is also the result of who was the sharpest going into the race. Granted German should win, if he's the sharpest or not, but the margin would be smaller if he wasn't that sharp or if they all were. People can say it was a national championship, but I guarantee that for Lanana, it is just a qualifying race in the middle (actually beginning) of Lukes season.
People can say what they want, but it's pretty clear that German was pretty embarrassed at his scratch on the achilles that let his team down and let the two other freshman to get top 7 finishes at NCAA's. He obviously wasn't hurt bad and he went after training a bit different than the Luke and Derrick. I bet you his pace picked up on his "easy" runs and his intensity picked up in his workouts. Most of all his mind was already in "prove it" mode. That is the biggest difference. So much of "being fit" or "peaking" is mental (i.e. Alan Webb) and German's mind has been sharp since before his first mile race.
Derrick may have had a little of that too since Puskedra had the honor of finishing as the top freshman at NCAA's, in one of the top freshman finishes over the last decade.
I think Lanana, in his wisdom, told Chris to take a nice break after NCAA's and is now doing what he should do with a freshman. Take the long term approach. Keep things in perspective, and focus on the things that really matter, mental and physical health and getting up for the BIG races.
Coach Smith is likely doing what most younger coaches with a big talent do. Getting excited and showing it off, not intentionally but without the prowess to hold it back. It takes a real master to be patient, conservative and to keep the proper perspective.
So in summary, if the predictions went in terms of talent it would be German in first, followed by either Derrick or Puskedra.
But due to things like coaching, I predict Puskedra could be the first one in. Even if not, I predict he makes the biggest jump in performance from junior nationals, which will bode well for the rest of his outdoor season if he uses it.
In case you forgot, Puskedra was doing leading work for the chase pack at NCAA's as a freshman. Derrick was tucked in the pack and German had finally caught it before he dropped out.
irun wrote:
Worlds is not until March 28th this year, which is still 5+ weeks away. I'm curious as to what Fernandez' goals for outdoor track are. He's obviously very capable across the board for just about any distance, meaning, I think he could be a contender in any race over 800m if he wants to be. He's run one of the leading indoor times for a mile, a 7:44 3k, and he's obviously in good xc 8k shape. He wouldn't be able to beat Rupp at 10k, possibly wouldn't even be able to run under 28, not that I wouldn't put it past him, but if he's going to training for the 8k at worlds, where does that leave his training for outdoors? will he go for the 15, 5k, or steeple even? i think with his kicking ability and endurance, the 5k would suit him very well, but who knows, maybe they'll have him double. i dont know good an idea that would be, but it will be interesting to see what route he takes come outdoors.
This is the real question. I think if coach Smith is smart they redshirt him and let him pick a couple races to qualify for the US championships. Maybe a 5K at cardinal invite and a couple 1500's or miles somewhere. This not a critical time for him to peak at USA's and he likely wouldn't make the team anyway but the experience is probably better than NCAA's and it would allow him some down time after world cross without too much pressure on racing and conference. They are not a threat to win a team title and NCAA's so that shouldn't matter.
A small correction on your post, 7:44 was Rupp's 3K from BIG.
possibility wrote:
I think Lanana, in his wisdom, told Chris to take a nice break after NCAA's and is now doing what he should do with a freshman. Take the long term approach. Keep things in perspective, and focus on the things that really matter, mental and physical health and getting up for the BIG races.
Why would he be giving advice to Chris Derrick?
For serious though, its obvious that Luke is farther behind in training that the other two for whatever reason. However, I do not believe that Smith is showing off his talent. He had a mile tuneup two weeks before junior nats, ran junior nats, and then got his qualifier in the 3k. He might run big 12s and then NCAAs and then rest up two more weeks for Worlds. He might be racing once every two weeks, but majority will be 3k or less. Its not like that schedule is going to get in the way of training.
predictions! wrote:
Exactly, the two biggest cross country races of his life and he under performed in both of them.
The two biggest XC races of his life... Right, I would never count a world XC Championship as a big race either. A Footlocker Title is way more impressive than 24th at World junior XC, and who gets hurt running anyway? I would have finished in 5-flat over the final 2k off NCAAs on a plantaris (or whatever) that was partially torn. Note the name.
Ha, good catch on the name, of course that should have been Luke.
Regarding the showing off thing, this is not as obvious as it sounds. Everyone can say that they "haven't done any workouts yet" or "haven't done any REAL intervals/speed/sharpening etc. etc. yet" and almost everyone DOES say that.
But the fact is, only very few programs can HONESTLY say that. They are the ones that on a consistant basis come up the biggest at the meets that count the most.
The tempation to prove others wrong is so strong that it naturally encourages you to let the cat out of the bag a bit. I hardly doubt that coach Smith is conciously encouraging German to flog every workout since mid December. What I do think is, both he and German had their pride and egos hurt well at NCAA's. Some idiots were picking German to win it, and a lot of people were picking Ok. State to get the team title. So they left with a big sense of failure. Yeah they lost German, but if I remember correctly you could have put German at 5th, taken Rupp out of the race and Oregon would have still won.
It is very hard to resist the tempation to come back strong and show people that those expectations were justified. So while they may be TRYING to be conservative now, they may be getting a little excited and a little ahead of themselves. If German comes to the first practice back from vacation with a "game on" mentality and the coach can't recognize it and really down play it then the process has already begun. If the coach get's a little excited about how fit he looks "without any speedwork" than the process speeds up.
I don't mean to single out these two, because this is something that happens in 95% of programs all over the country every year. It tends not to happen at places like Colorado and wherever Lanana is coaching.
Flawed wrote:
The two biggest XC races of his life... Right, I would never count a world XC Championship as a big race either. A Footlocker Title is way more impressive than 24th at World junior XC, and who gets hurt running anyway?
Unless you medal like Ritz, or are in close contention like Tegenkamp, then yes, a Footlocker title is more impressive than 24th. World XC results, especially Jr., vary too much to be a good indicator of anything.
ndsjh wrote:
Flawed wrote:The two biggest XC races of his life... Right, I would never count a world XC Championship as a big race either. A Footlocker Title is way more impressive than 24th at World junior XC, and who gets hurt running anyway?
Unless you medal like Ritz, or are in close contention like Tegenkamp, then yes, a Footlocker title is more impressive than 24th. World XC results, especially Jr., vary too much to be a good indicator of anything.
WRONG
24th at world junior is more impressive than winning footlocker.
there is most likely a LOT more than 24 runners at junior world xc who could have won footlocker.
douglas burke wrote:
WRONG
24th at world junior is more impressive than winning footlocker.
there is most likely a LOT more than 24 runners at junior world xc who could have won footlocker.
Sorry, lots of people aren't really racing anymore once they are that far out of contention. Would you rather be state champion and 24th at Footlockers, or 3rd at state and 23rd at Footlockers. Most runners would choose state champion and 24th at Footlockers, because the one place difference that far out of contention means very, very little. Understand why 24th at World Jrs. doesn't erase the 3rd at Footlockers for German?
possibility wrote:
What I'm banking on is Lanana and Luke doing just what they did last fall, being ready at the right time for the right race! I actually think that Luke finishing 3rd at Junior Nationals as he starts his 2009 campaign is a good sign. He's rusty but still running well. Luke never had a step of his 2008 season behind Derrick except at the end of a couple races since Luke was going out with the leaders and Derrick was going out more conservative and catching him at the end.
The result of junior nationals is also the result of who was the sharpest going into the race. Granted German should win, if he's the sharpest or not, but the margin would be smaller if he wasn't that sharp or if they all were. People can say it was a national championship, but I guarantee that for Lanana, it is just a qualifying race in the middle (actually beginning) of Lukes season.
People can say what they want, but it's pretty clear that German was pretty embarrassed at his scratch on the achilles that let his team down and let the two other freshman to get top 7 finishes at NCAA's. He obviously wasn't hurt bad and he went after training a bit different than the Luke and Derrick. I bet you his pace picked up on his "easy" runs and his intensity picked up in his workouts. Most of all his mind was already in "prove it" mode. That is the biggest difference. So much of "being fit" or "peaking" is mental (i.e. Alan Webb) and German's mind has been sharp since before his first mile race.
Derrick may have had a little of that too since Puskedra had the honor of finishing as the top freshman at NCAA's, in one of the top freshman finishes over the last decade.
I think Lanana, in his wisdom, told Chris to take a nice break after NCAA's and is now doing what he should do with a freshman. Take the long term approach. Keep things in perspective, and focus on the things that really matter, mental and physical health and getting up for the BIG races.
Coach Smith is likely doing what most younger coaches with a big talent do. Getting excited and showing it off, not intentionally but without the prowess to hold it back. It takes a real master to be patient, conservative and to keep the proper perspective.
So in summary, if the predictions went in terms of talent it would be German in first, followed by either Derrick or Puskedra.
But due to things like coaching, I predict Puskedra could be the first one in. Even if not, I predict he makes the biggest jump in performance from junior nationals, which will bode well for the rest of his outdoor season if he uses it.
In case you forgot, Puskedra was doing leading work for the chase pack at NCAA's as a freshman. Derrick was tucked in the pack and German had finally caught it before he dropped out.
are you sure Luke is running...
Sorry, lots of people aren't really racing anymore once they are that far out of contention. Would you rather be state champion and 24th at Footlockers, or 3rd at state and 23rd at Footlockers. Most runners would choose state champion and 24th at Footlockers, because the one place difference that far out of contention means very, very little. Understand why 24th at World Jrs. doesn't erase the 3rd at Footlockers for German?[/quote]
Pull your head out of your a$$. WORLD JUNIOR XC... WORLD... not some rinky dink delaware state title (no offense DE). We're talking all those other countries... Especially the African ones who train their butts off for a shot at this. Maybe there are some Africans who only want the W and will give up in 20th... There are plenty of other people who are that high up and only want to finish better...
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP... once that title pops up a state or FL title wouldn't even come close to comparing to a top 30 or better finish at Worlds
Masturboking wrote:
For serious though, its obvious that Luke is farther behind in training that the other two for whatever reason.
How is this obvious? What about his racing makes it so clear that he's behind the others?
I would rather finish 40th at worlds than win a footlocker championship, there I said it.
German is talented wrote:
He'll be the first junior across the line - yet finish 9th behind 8 over-age Africans and everyone at Letsrun will be too scared to say anything about the obviously over-age "juniors". Because they're African.
Best post of the thread and the most accurate. I do think he can finish in the top 10.