2008 NCAA D1 XC Predictions

Nice work. I think you may have underrated Portland and Colorado a little, but it's tough to get everyone in there.

1. Oklahoma State

2. Alabama

3. Oregon

4. Stanford

5. Wisconsin

6. Auburn

7. Portland

8. Iona

9. Colorado

10. Northern Arizona

The question is does Colorado even make it??

Has there ever been 3 true freshman in the top ten? Or more? Fernandez, Derrick, and Puskedra could do it for sure.

Portland probably will finish around there, but Longmuir isn't their 3, but more their 4 or 5. He was hurt earlier and trying to get back. Kinsella will challenge top 5. Who knows on Kipchumba... 5-30? Betterbed can crack top 50 with a decent race. Then Houck, Longmuir, and Quackenbush at 4-5-6 hopefully under 100.

Yes Colorado does make it.

trialswatcher wrote:

Interesting that you bury Forys, top 34 combined at PreNats, yet elevate Centrowitz who has never beaten Forys in XC,and elevate Macnamara, who beat him once this year,and no times last year.

McNamara was 6th at Big 10, and Forys only 12th. His performance at Pre-Nats was decent, but not enough to push him into top 50. He'll have to step it up at Regionals.

mark steeds from georgia state will definitely be top 60 material.

Oops, I meant Forys was 14th. Andy Baker was 12th.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

trialswatcher wrote:

Interesting that you bury Forys, top 34 combined at PreNats, yet elevate Centrowitz who has never beaten Forys in XC,and elevate Macnamara, who beat him once this year,and no times last year.

McNamara was 6th at Big 10, and Forys only 12th. His performance at Pre-Nats was decent, but not enough to push him into top 50. He'll have to step it up at Regionals.

I think that Michigan will be strong enough at Regionals that they will not be pushing everyone in and will not need to go all out to qualify. They should not try to race for the win, as they pushed for Big Tens at home and they need to be at the top of their game at Nationals - Regionals has to be taken as lightly as possible. If everyone runs well, including Lex, they might do pretty well.

Andrew Ledwith 55th Christ almighty Andrew should be somewhere between 15th and 30th id say.

Well, if you look at MAAC, Khadraoui beat Ledwith him soundly, by 23 seconds. Ledwith was indeed 31st last year, and Khadraoui 25th, only 8 seconds ahead. Possibly I'm underrating the MAAC, and Khadraoui should be moved up. But my guess was that Ledwith isn't running as well as last year. Either way, I think the field will be more competitive this year, but not everyone who did well last year will improve.

Here's some others from last year's NCAA that I didn't list:

Andy Baker, Butler (28, 30:22) 24:54 1st Horizon

Cory Thorne, Louisville (35, 30:34) - not running

Daniel Mercado, Oregon (41, 30:37) - 24:10, 17th Pac 10

Patrick Mutai, Utep (48, 30:41) 23:45 3rd C-USA

Nicodemus Ngoetich, Utep (57, 30:44) 23:53 4th C-USA

Jake Morse, Texas (61, 30:47) 25:27 38th Big 12

Brandon Bethke, Wisconsin (98, 31:06) - not yet released by WI

Baker was an oversight, and should be in the top 30. The two Utep guys should be in the top 60, but before them I need to include these two in the top 25:

John Beattie, Tulsa, 23:30 1st C-USA

Japheth Ngojoy, UTEP, 23:31 2nd C-USA

Umm, ever heard of Evan Jager?

Ummm, yeees, I heard he left UW and signed a pro contract with Nike.

Daniel Watts, OK State (53, 30:43)

Matt Barnes-Smith, OK State (60, 30:44)

Oklahoma State's #3 and 4 runners from last year have been pretty under the radar. They were #7 & 8, 17th and 18th at Big 12, but the coach might just be timing them to peak big time by NCAA. Watch for their performances this weekend, I bet they'll be tightening up the rear of the pack, and will be up there in case Lowe or Chirchir falters.

Great summaries here:

http://www.letsrun.com/2008/regional1113.php

I think Mesecho will beat Tyson David though in South. I'd put Mead ahead of Kosgei in Midwest. West should be the most exciting race, to see Portland try to dethrone #3 Stanford for 2nd. Unless Kinsella is off his game, he should be running for 2nd, not 4th. I'd put Derrick in the race for 2nd too, as I've explained elsewhere why I think Puskedra might not handle the transition to 10k quite as well, definitely not enough to beat Kipchumba.

01 OK State 2+8+10+19+24 = 61

02 Oregon 1+14+16+25+29 = 85

03 Stanford 5+15+27+33+66 = 146

04 Alabama 6+31+32+42+49 = 160

05 Wisconsin 18+34+35+39+53 = 179

06 Portland 9+12+26+67+75 = 189

07 Auburn 3+17+22+85+100 = 227

08 Iona 30+44+55+57+76 = 262

09 Northern Arizona 7+47+54+86+101 = 295

10 Georgetown or Colorado?

This is based on my updated list, with 75 runners that includes most of the people I was missing last time. I excluded Liberty, Lamar, Tusla, TCU, Wyoming, Florida, Dartmouth, High Point, Butler and Southeastern L.A. from team scoring. I don't know for sure which teams will make it, so these team scores are only very rough predictions. I won't put up the updated list until after Regionals, with final scoring predictions and times.

That is quite a sound victory you are projecting for Ok. State. Why such a change from the very close race you originally predicted on the first page of the thread?

1) Samuel Chelenga, Liberty

2) Galen Rupp, Oregon

3) German Fernandez, OkSt

4) Shadrack Kiptoo, Oregon

5) Ryan Vail, OkSt

6) David McNeil, NAU

7) David Kinsella, Portland

8) Tyson David, Alabamma

9) Shadrack Songkok, TAMU

10) Andrew Bumbalough, Georgetown

11) Luke Puskedra, Oregon

12) Chris Derrick, Stanford

13) Alfred Kipchumba, Portland

14) Hassan Mead, Minnesota

15) Felix Kiboywo, Auburn

16) Patrick Smyth, Notre Dame

17) Kyle Perry, BYU

18) Landon Peacock, Wisconsin

19) Elkanah Kibet, Auburn

20) Stuart Eagon, Wisconsin

21) John Kosgei, OkSt

22) Chris Rombough, Minnesota

23) Chris Wagner, Wisconsin

24) Lex Williams, Michigan

24) Hugo Beamish, Villanova

25) Levi Miller, Georgetown

26) Japeth Ng'ojoy, UTEP

27) Andrew Ledwith, Iona

28) Jordan Kyle, Colorado

29) Samuel Kosgei, Lamar

30) Augustus Maiyo, Alabama

31) Emil Heineking, Virginia

32) Ryan Foster, Virginia

33) David Chirchir, OkSt

34) Ben True, Dartmouth

35) Garrett Heath, Stanford

36) Ciaran O'Lionard, Michigan

37) Craig Miller, Wisconsin

38) Sean McNamara, Michigan

39) Craig Miller, Michigan

40) David McCarthy, Providence

41) Kiel Uhl, Iowa St

42) Bobby Mack, NCST

43) Mohammad Khadroui, Iona

44) Matt Withrow, Wisconsin

45) Andrew Wheating, Oregon

46) Michael Maag, Princeton

47) Vince McNally, Penn State

48) Ayalew Taye, Georgetown

49) Harbert Okuti, Iona

50) Richard Medina, Colorado

TEAMS:

1) Oregon

2) Oklahoma State

3) Wisconsin

4) Georgetown

5) Alabama

6) Stanford

7) Iona

8) Colorado

9) Northern Arizona

10) Portland