Derrick vs Fernandez vs Puskedra vs Cabral vs Lowe

- let's put it into further perspective. AJ and Hall, the last two FLN champs, had bests of 15:11 and 15:06 on the woodward course respectively. AJ actually only ran 15:15 his senior year on the course. Ryan Hall, who might prove to be the greatest american marathoner of all time, ONLY ran 14:50 on the course in perfect conditions, if i remember correctly. and the last time anybody even broke 15 on the course was Hall back seven years ago when he ran that 14:50. Louie Quintana, in his FLN winning season, ran a 14:47. Bryan Dameworth and Eric Reynolds both ran a 14:39 on the course in their senior campaigns. GERMAN RAN 14:24.

- i really don't think anyone seriously thought german would break the record, much less in such a spectacular manner. and if you haven't seen the race video, do yourself a favor and watch it. i know, year in and year out, there's a new kid on the block who runs really fast and people always say "wow, he made it look so easy, like he wasn't trying at all". as i watch the video of german running the course, not only is he making it look easy, but it's absolutely ludicrous that the pace he's running is sub-4:40 mile pace. his split for three miles was reported at 13:55. 13:55!! i don't remember the last time anyone in california clocked a sub-14 three mile (if ever) and german did it on a true xc course, not some flat green. this was easily california's most decorated course record and he just took it down. it was probably more celebrated than the mt. sac record, which german would have absolutely crushed had he ran.

- german HAS to be the most underworked of all the top runners in the country. i think him being "past his peak by nationals" or "tired out from so much racing" is really a non-factor, but will absolutely hinder a lot of the runners from other parts of the country, especially those competing in NTN.

- the woodward course has always been a good indicator of what a runner will go on to clock that same year at the balboa course. chances are, whoever is looking to beat german is gonna have to either break or come dangerously close to the 14:36 course record

summary: it's german's race to lose.

THIS GUY IS NOT BETTER THAN GOUCHER OR MEB WERE IN H.S.!

I don't know about that, last word man.

By the way, I think many people don't know that German Fernandez was also the state xc champ his sophomore year, where he beat Chad Hall(Chad Hall came in 2nd). Fernandez was then injured on two different occasions his junior year, having to skip the xc season and come in during the middle of track season. He had knee surgery and shin splints that year. And now, following that year of injury and recovery, he's healthy and he starts the school year out by running 14:24. Dude just has straight up talent. Could be the next person since Kennedy to win NCAA nationals in his freshmen year(has anyone since Kennedy done that?).

last word man wrote:

THIS GUY IS NOT BETTER THAN GOUCHER OR MEB WERE IN H.S.!

Yes. He is.

I wouldn't call him underworked either. He hasn't really had any time off since April when he returned from a slight muscle tear behind his tibia.

Is he enormously talented? Yes. Is he underexposed? Yes. Is he relatively inexperienced? Yes. He is not underworked. He runs in the same league that I coach. I talk to his coaches weekly. I can garuntee you that he has been training very hard.

You have to remember, that he has had almost 3 whole seasons wiped out by injuries and prior to those injuries, wasn't even really serious about running (his first state championship with a time of 15:14, on the same day that AJ ran 15:11, came during this non serious phase).

Also, for those of you who have been saying that he came off as arrogant: it is too bad you got that impression. He is truly a good kid. He is the ultimate team player. If you saw crush the course record at his sectional meet then book it through the chute and back out on to the course to cheer on his teammates, you would understand. On that day, he beat the course record of another FLN qualifier and broke it by 71 seconds but was WAY more excited about his team's unexpected win.

Fernandez does appear to have the best credentials this season but I wouldn't underestimate any of these kids. They all are superiorly talented and any of them could pull out a win.

That being said, who really cares how fast AJ ran on that course. He's good but is not in the same league as these guys. It's been sometime since we've had an impressive footlocker victory / race (2002/2003), but I think this will be the year to change that.

Point being, as a sophomore who really didn't care that much about running and who was in his first cross country season, he was already almost as good as AJ the year that AJ won FLN

so there's a damn good chance the mt. sac course record is going down at the Footlocker West Regionals and maybe the FL Nationals CR too.

the Mt. Sac 5k record which none of the really greats ran.

gatorxc wrote:

so there's a damn good chance the mt. sac course record is going down at the Footlocker West Regionals and maybe the FL Nationals CR too.

the mt. sac invite course is 2.8 miles, but another .1 mile is added for the Fl regional.

THIS GUY IS NOT BETTER THAN GOUCHER OR MEB WERE IN H.S.!(quote)

Meb ran a 15:02 on the same course at the 1992 state meet in the D1 boys race.

I have to agree with you that no one is going to win by 20 seconds. Fernandez ran awfully hard today--collapsing at the finish line (something the girls do, but rarely the guys). I noticed in his interview that Fernandez mentioned an earlier race where he ran hard and that it took him over two weeks to recover. It really doesn't look like he will be fresh for the FL West race, and if he qualifies, he will have his hands full with Derrick and a few others.

you fool that race where it took him two weeks to recover was a half marathon.. whole different ballpark

human dyestat wrote:

the mt. sac invite course is 2.8 miles, but another .1 mile is added for the Fl regional.

THIS GUY IS NOT BETTER THAN GOUCHER OR MEB WERE IN H.S.!(quote)

Meb ran a 15:02 on the same course at the 1992 state meet in the D1 boys race.

JUSTIN!!!! IS THAT YOU???

I don't think you can call what he did "collapsing". If he was that spent, then he wouldn't have been able to get up under his own power 5 seconds later and jog into the chute.

As much as I want to root for Cabral, the competition in California and Illinois is so much better than here in the Northeast.

If Fernandez and Derrick are destroying fields out there, they have to be the favorites.

I cant believe we are now starting to say that German is better than Ritz.

You say that German destroyed Marc Davis' record....great! He ran 14:24, and you mention that Ritz ran 14:29 at FLN. You failto mention that Ritz also ran 14:11 on his state course and 8:50 or so indoor to beat some 4x800 teams by himself.

Ritz is and was far beyond all of these kids.

Sure it is a great year, but none of them are, nor will they ever be Ritz.

it didn't look like he "collapsed", it looked more like he was being 'dramatic'. He looked pretty chipper when he got up.

All I know is what I have been reading here and similar threads. However, at this point is not a foregone conclusion that Ritz is better. And since Ritz ran 3rd (and Tegenkamp 5th) at World Jr XC, that is a pretty high standard, but so are times at the Woodward course. Remember, this is California which is much deeper than any other state.My guess is that FLN is going to be a great race; my odds are that, if anyone dominates it will be GF.

watching wrote:

I cant believe we are now starting to say that German is better than Ritz.

You say that German destroyed Marc Davis' record....great! He ran 14:24, and you mention that Ritz ran 14:29 at FLN. You failto mention that Ritz also ran 14:11 on his state course and 8:50 or so indoor to beat some 4x800 teams by himself.

Ritz is and was far beyond all of these kids.

Sure it is a great year, but none of them are, nor will they ever be Ritz.

Fernandez's race to lose.

California isn't all that deep this year, not as much as usual. Looking at the times from over the past years, there are usually 15-20 guys running 15:30 or faster. Last year was pretty high, with 19 at 15:30 or faster. This year there were 13 faster than 15:30, and only 5 under 15:20 (9 last year). California is not as fast up front this year as it usually is, so don't fool yourself into thinking that GF is head and shoulders above all competition because he is beating a slower than normal Cali. He has run some great times this season, but lets wait until he beats some legit FL contenders before saying he can't be touched.

He's going to have to run a damn impressive regional meet and run away with Footlocker to match Ritz. If you think Fernandez has come close to matching Ritz, you're kidding yourself. A CR at a well storied course is a good start though, and he is probably closer (at this point) than anyone else in the country to matching Ritz's accomplishments. Buuuut... he has a long way to go to actually match that.