Do you know what the word common means? Easy to look average improvement. I looked up 25 guys who had 4:39 PR on Jan 1, 2025. 8% ran 4:20 by the end of the season. So the real answer to his question based on data vs anecdotes or feelings is, very unlikely.
predictors wrote:
Do you know what the word common means? Easy to look average improvement. I looked up 25 guys who had 4:39 PR on Jan 1, 2025. 8% ran 4:20 by the end of the season. So the real answer to his question based on data vs anecdotes or feelings is, very unlikely.
But I don't have a 4:39 pr- I have a 4:27.05, or a 4:25 1600m.
predictors wrote:
Do you know what the word common means? Easy to look average improvement. I looked up 25 guys who had 4:39 PR on Jan 1, 2025. 8% ran 4:20 by the end of the season. So the real answer to his question based on data vs anecdotes or feelings is, very unlikely.
He doesn't have 4:39 PR. This was his first race of the season. He ran 4:27.05 mile or 4:25.5 1600m
Like I said, data is hard for some to accept. He had a PR of 4:39 at the start the season. So did the 25 guys I looked up. You are free to post the results of guys who ran a 4:27PR in January last year with the percent who ran 4:20 at the end of the season. I predict the number to be 10-15%.
a 4:39 from... a year and a half ago when I had just started running and repeatedly was sick taking weeks off at a time?
And a smooth 4:27, with no idea how to pace a fast mile yet, and in January?
1. Ask your coach instead of a bunch of random has beens, trolls, and hobby joggers on this site.
2. If you don't believe that you are a sub 4:20 athlete, then you are not a sub 4:20 athlete. I can already tell that you are letting anxiety over a mark rule your mind.
3. Do you have such little faith in your training plan that you need strangers to provide reassuring thoughts?
You came here asking what the odds are. I provided the odds. You are now trying to justify why your times were not what you wanted. College coaches hate dealing with kids and parents who come at them with this logic. Every runner in history has a reason their PRs aren't as fast as they think they could be and every runner has outlandish predictions of what they are guaranteed to run. Your PR was what it was on January 1. You can spend 2 minutes looking up the 4:39 guys from 2024 which would be their PR on Jan 1, 2025. Every one of them had the same reasons that their PRs weren't faster. Injury, pacing, rain, wind, sick, etc. You are not different. Data is data.
Or even better, look up the data.
I just this reverting to 4:39 is a crazy prediction. I talked to three of the fastest milers I know. They are 4:14, 4:15, and 4:18. Their first race on this same track that year were- 4:27.6, 4:32, and 4:33
Especially if you weren’t peaked (which I don’t expect anyone to be, in January), dropping 7 seconds is very reasonable for a young male running good but not great times. I’ve seen multiple people go from 4:15-4:18 to under 4:10 over the course of a season, and running the 1500 equivalent of sub 4:05 by outdoor.
Now list their PRs at the time they ran those rust busters. Better yet, list their names so we can look.
Not when the PR before the 4:18 was 4:30.
fastest one had a 4:50 and 10:10. Idk what the slowest guy had. slightly slower guy had 4:29 and 9:40
predictors wrote:
Now list their PRs at the time they ran those rust busters. Better yet, list their names so we can look.
Bro, you are dense. This *was* his rust buster. Compare rust busters.
Are you new to the sport? Rust buster literally means firts meet of the season when an athlete is happy to be within 10 seconds of their PR. A PR is not a rust buster.
A guy ran 4:18 in January when theirPR was 4:50? We already caught you ribbing about your Dad's PR. Why not just be genuine?
Stupid idea. If I can tempo minutes faster than my previous 5k pace at 160bpm for miles over 5k, would a PR not be easy? Tends to happen when you literally run 0mpw and then start running
predictors wrote:
A guy ran 4:18 in January when theirPR was 4:50? We already caught you ribbing about your Dad's PR. Why not just be genuine?
I've got a kid I coach who ran 4:33 in his rustbuster in December and his previous PR was 5:38. Are you telling me that is impossible too? You spend 30s thinking about how that might be possible. BTW - I expect the kid I coach to be under 4:20 by the end of outdoors.
If someone can set their PR at the beginning of a season - an actual, phased season, it's still a PR. And it happens all the time when people are new to the sport.. And I have no reason to not expect them to drop time as the season progresses through it's phases - just like anyone should if executed well. In fact, I expect a new runner to drop more than average. This is just common sense.
Sounds like you are the worst coach in history. Your athlete finally wised up and did his own training during the off season. Anything is possible but many things are unlikely.
You are trying so hard to get some affirmation. It is very unlikely that you run 4:20 this year. Your dad was a real runner and he was only able to squeak out a 4:09 at age 22 with real coaching. What makes you think you can run 4:20 with poor coaching and no parental support?