Doris vs Jane millrose 3000

I was saying that Doris has less speed. A 4:09 1500 is not comparable, even if not pushed.

Superior finish in what?

Certainly not the 5000 2 weeks ago.

Jane will win by a least 10 seconds.

That makes no sense. Don’t drink and type

My take:

sub 8:35 99% chance

sub 8:30 95% chance

sub 8:29 80% chance

sub 8:28 60% chance

sub 8:27 40% chance

sub 8:26 20% chance

sub 8:25 1% chance

You have her with a 40% chance of running 8:27. That’s equivalent to 9:04 which would be a 13 second improvement from her 9:17 last track season. WA equates her 14:44 to 8:34, so 8:30 seems like a good over/under time.

Because a couple months later she's capable of 14:32-33. Equals 8:27 3k

Breaks Zola Budd's 8:28 age 19 record. 5th all time American indoors.

What makes you think she’s capable of running 14:32-33? With that level of fitness, she would have won NCAA XC. Maybe she can run that fast, but it’s far from being a fact that she can do so.

If Lemngole is in shape she's going to beat Hedengren.

At this time of year, this may not be the case.

Hedengren has run nothing comparable to an 8:58 steeple and possibly never will

I agree wholeheartedly. I see Jane as someone who will drop 8-12sec in the 5k every month or so for the next year or two. Once she gets in the low 13s/high 12s, she’ll start making more sensible improvements.

And Doris is a 5.8k-6.1k specialist. She can’t hang in a 5k, much less a 3k.

Btw: these are the odds for the winner. Yes, that winner could be Jane (or not)

I wouldn’t put too much stock in Doris’ 4:09 PR. To run 8:58 in the steeple one would have to be in, conservatively, 8:30 flat 3k shape, which would conservatively require 4:05/4:06 1500m speed even if the individual was much better aerobically than anaerobically

50/50

68s and 2:12 last 800m.

Wouldn't underestimate her.

Kind of an unfair comparison when you have a newly-19yo up against an almost-24yo.

I agree; I expect it will be dropped by a couple seconds. The U.S. junior record will be toasted as well.

I don't want say Doris is at different ledge, but a 8:58 steeple is way beyond NCAA level and Jane is a great athlete, a great NCAA level athlete.

I don't really care about the age comparison. My only comment are to those who think at this point Hedengren is beating Lemngole.

Who in that race is expected to break the US junior record?