I agree, the collegiate record is in real jeopardy. I'd like to see Jane come out on top, but realistically, Doris has to be favored to beat her right now with her superior finish.
You have her with a 40% chance of running 8:27. That’s equivalent to 9:04 which would be a 13 second improvement from her 9:17 last track season. WA equates her 14:44 to 8:34, so 8:30 seems like a good over/under time.
Because a couple months later she's capable of 14:32-33. Equals 8:27 3k
Breaks Zola Budd's 8:28 age 19 record. 5th all time American indoors.
What makes you think she’s capable of running 14:32-33? With that level of fitness, she would have won NCAA XC. Maybe she can run that fast, but it’s far from being a fact that she can do so.
Because a couple months later she's capable of 14:32-33. Equals 8:27 3k
Breaks Zola Budd's 8:28 age 19 record. 5th all time American indoors.
I agree wholeheartedly. I see Jane as someone who will drop 8-12sec in the 5k every month or so for the next year or two. Once she gets in the low 13s/high 12s, she’ll start making more sensible improvements.
And Doris is a 5.8k-6.1k specialist. She can’t hang in a 5k, much less a 3k.
You have her with a 40% chance of running 8:27. That’s equivalent to 9:04 which would be a 13 second improvement from her 9:17 last track season. WA equates her 14:44 to 8:34, so 8:30 seems like a good over/under time.
Btw: these are the odds for the winner. Yes, that winner could be Jane (or not)
I wouldn’t put too much stock in Doris’ 4:09 PR. To run 8:58 in the steeple one would have to be in, conservatively, 8:30 flat 3k shape, which would conservatively require 4:05/4:06 1500m speed even if the individual was much better aerobically than anaerobically
Because a couple months later she's capable of 14:32-33. Equals 8:27 3k
Breaks Zola Budd's 8:28 age 19 record. 5th all time American indoors.
What makes you think she’s capable of running 14:32-33? With that level of fitness, she would have won NCAA XC. Maybe she can run that fast, but it’s far from being a fact that she can do so.