From what I saw of the NE NXN, though there was mud on the course, it was not a swampy golf course like Portland becomes.
Boys are first, girls are second this year so course will be torn up for the girls.
Advantage to the leader who can pick the best line.
Leachman tried that 2 years ago and it didn't end well for her. Lex and Leo tried that 3 years ago and it didn't end well for them either.
The real secret for NXN isn't picking the best line, it's picking the right pace.
Leachman tried to run a course record that day and that worked for about 3000 m. Still much better to be able to pick your path, obviously at a pace you can handle.
Leachman tried that 2 years ago and it didn't end well for her. Lex and Leo tried that 3 years ago and it didn't end well for them either.
The real secret for NXN isn't picking the best line, it's picking the right pace.
Leachman tried to run a course record that day and that worked for about 3000 m. Still much better to be able to pick your path, obviously at a pace you can handle.
That makes no sense. Unless you're a Jane Hedengren type who is head and shoulders better than the field, if you run the correct pace for yourself you WON'T be in the lead for most of the race.
"Being in the lead" and "running the right pace" usually don't go together at NXN. Addy Ritzenhein understands that which is how she won NXN in 2023.
Watched Natasza Dudek win MW regionals in CR time . . . thought for sure she's the NXN favorite.
Then, watched Blair Bartlett win NE regionals and sniff a Tuohy CR . . . thought for sure she's now the NXN favorite.
Then, watched Lily Alder and Averi Lowen win SW & SE regionals, respectively . . . and thought they should be up there competing FTW.
Now, watched Summer Wilson win her CA state meet race in CR time . . . and thought for sure she is now the NXN favorite.
Finally, just watched Jaelyn Williams win her CA state meet race in 3rd fastest time ever with a sub-5 last mile uphill . . . and thought she should be in contention as well.
Now, I don't know.
Anyone I missed?
All six ran on firm footing though Bartlett may have had to run around a few muddy spots on the Bowdoin Park course.
Glendoveer will almost certainly be wet & muddy -- just hope no overnight rains turn NXN into a swim meet like last year.
Guess my pick would be Bartlett. Bowdoin is by far the most difficult of the courses mentioned above, thus providing "resistence" which may be similar in effort to running through soft grass and mud puddles at Glendoveer. Thus, maybe this gives Blair a slight edge. Maybe.
I know this isnt always the best science, but looking at Dudek, she has been doing time trial in all these races. Not sure we have seen her go to the well even. She doesn't have a crazy kick (going only on NB summer meet) but she can grind people into the ground seemingly with little effort.
Leachman tried to run a course record that day and that worked for about 3000 m. Still much better to be able to pick your path, obviously at a pace you can handle.
That makes no sense. Unless you're a Jane Hedengren type who is head and shoulders better than the field, if you run the correct pace for yourself you WON'T be in the lead for most of the race.
"Being in the lead" and "running the right pace" usually don't go together at NXN. Addy Ritzenhein understands that which is how she won NXN in 2023.
so, supposedly we have a group of strong girl runners all of whom have a chance to win. If there is this group would you rather be able to pick a clean path, or be stuck in the middle and run through mud and lakes and whatever? From what I recall, in the past we have seen pretty much one break away. Even in 2023, it was a small chase pack led by by Addy R that chased down the tiring Leachman.
That makes no sense. Unless you're a Jane Hedengren type who is head and shoulders better than the field, if you run the correct pace for yourself you WON'T be in the lead for most of the race.
"Being in the lead" and "running the right pace" usually don't go together at NXN. Addy Ritzenhein understands that which is how she won NXN in 2023.
so, supposedly we have a group of strong girl runners all of whom have a chance to win. If there is this group would you rather be able to pick a clean path, or be stuck in the middle and run through mud and lakes and whatever? From what I recall, in the past we have seen pretty much one break away. Even in 2023, it was a small chase pack led by by Addy R that chased down the tiring Leachman.
The girls are going second this year so they will all be running through plenty of mud no matter what place they are in.
And if there is a lake like there was 2 years ago, every girl from last to first will have to go through it, so what place they are in makes no difference.
Picking your line makes very little difference when the whole course is a muddy mess. Pacing is the key to doing well at NXN.
So, beware of Addy Ritz. Won two years ago in a very controlled, come-from-behind win then finished 5th last year in the swamp, less than two secs from 2nd. As veteran an NXNer as you can get. Maybe not the most fit runner in the field but possibly the smartest for this course.
Hahaha. TWO years ago is awhile. She's not even projected to be in the top 3. And sorry, lots of regional champions running that are both faster and smarter. No one cares what swamp or place she ran in last year. This is THIS year....no chance
That makes no sense. Unless you're a Jane Hedengren type who is head and shoulders better than the field, if you run the correct pace for yourself you WON'T be in the lead for most of the race.
"Being in the lead" and "running the right pace" usually don't go together at NXN. Addy Ritzenhein understands that which is how she won NXN in 2023.
so, supposedly we have a group of strong girl runners all of whom have a chance to win. If there is this group would you rather be able to pick a clean path, or be stuck in the middle and run through mud and lakes and whatever? From what I recall, in the past we have seen pretty much one break away. Even in 2023, it was a small chase pack led by by Addy R that chased down the tiring Leachman.
Watched Natasza Dudek win MW regionals in CR time . . . thought for sure she's the NXN favorite.
Then, watched Blair Bartlett win NE regionals and sniff a Tuohy CR . . . thought for sure she's now the NXN favorite.
Then, watched Lily Alder and Averi Lowen win SW & SE regionals, respectively . . . and thought they should be up there competing FTW.
Now, watched Summer Wilson win her CA state meet race in CR time . . . and thought for sure she is now the NXN favorite.
Finally, just watched Jaelyn Williams win her CA state meet race in 3rd fastest time ever with a sub-5 last mile uphill . . . and thought she should be in contention as well.
Now, I don't know.
Anyone I missed?
All six ran on firm footing though Bartlett may have had to run around a few muddy spots on the Bowdoin Park course.
Glendoveer will almost certainly be wet & muddy -- just hope no overnight rains turn NXN into a swim meet like last year.
Guess my pick would be Bartlett. Bowdoin is by far the most difficult of the courses mentioned above, thus providing "resistence" which may be similar in effort to running through soft grass and mud puddles at Glendoveer. Thus, maybe this gives Blair a slight edge. Maybe.
It's pretty close between Bartlett, Lowen, and Dudek.
Wilson and Williams looked good today, but they still aren't on the level of the other 3 girls I just mentioned. Neither is Alder.
If the conditions are muddy at NXN then Bartlett and Dudek are the favorites. If the conditions are good, then Lowen has a shot. I don't see anyone else besides those 3 winning.
I’m going with the SW girls. Regardless of what “level” you deem them to be on. It is hard to judge what “level” people are on when they run most of their races at altitude.
It's pretty close between Bartlett, Lowen, and Dudek.
Wilson and Williams looked good today, but they still aren't on the level of the other 3 girls I just mentioned. Neither is Alder.
If the conditions are muddy at NXN then Bartlett and Dudek are the favorites. If the conditions are good, then Lowen has a shot. I don't see anyone else besides those 3 winning.
I’m going with the SW girls. Regardless of what “level” you deem them to be on. It is hard to judge what “level” people are on when they run most of their races at altitude.
I agree. There's more depth in the SW, they have strength from training at altitude on mountains (this will help in the mud), and by not winning all of their races by a large margin, they've learned how to race. Sometimes when fast individuals come from weaker regions, they struggle with race tactics, pacing, etc.
There does seem to be several of top girls who like hammer the pace from the gun
If they try that on a muddy course then they will discover between the 3k and 4k mark that they really screwed up, and a bunch of girls will pass them. (See the 2023 race and Leachman, Forsyth, and Engelhardt.)
Ahhhhhh. Well there it is. Those aren't XC courses if they didn't need spikes.
You don’t understand. It doesn't matter if a California xc course "needs" spikes or not. The kids are prohibited from wearing spikes on any course for any reason.
What I understand is that CA courses are not "real" XC courses by northeast standards if spikes are not necessary to dominate a race and run fast times. Allowed or not is not the point. Is it mostly golf course type situations out there?
Runners would wither and die at any of the big NE/NY courses without spikes.
I’m going with the SW girls. Regardless of what “level” you deem them to be on. It is hard to judge what “level” people are on when they run most of their races at altitude.
I agree. There's more depth in the SW, they have strength from training at altitude on mountains (this will help in the mud), and by not winning all of their races by a large margin, they've learned how to race. Sometimes when fast individuals come from weaker regions, they struggle with race tactics, pacing, etc.
SW girls won the past couple years (individual and team) and had 4 of the top 10 and about a third of the top 50 individuals each year.
You don’t understand. It doesn't matter if a California xc course "needs" spikes or not. The kids are prohibited from wearing spikes on any course for any reason.
What I understand is that CA courses are not "real" XC courses by northeast standards if spikes are not necessary to dominate a race and run fast times. Allowed or not is not the point.
Runners would wither and die at any of the big NE/NY courses without spikes.
You STILL don't understand. Of course "allowed or not" IS the point.
If spikes were banned in a state in NE/NY then high school runners wouldn't use spikes there either, simple as that. For some strange reason you are desperately trying to make an issue out of something that the kids have no control over. Kids in every state have to follow the rules whether they like the rules or not.
So, beware of Addy Ritz. Won two years ago in a very controlled, come-from-behind win then finished 5th last year in the swamp, less than two secs from 2nd. As veteran an NXNer as you can get. Maybe not the most fit runner in the field but possibly the smartest for this course.
Hahaha. TWO years ago is awhile. She's not even projected to be in the top 3. And sorry, lots of regional champions running that are both faster and smarter. No one cares what swamp or place she ran in last year. This is THIS year....no chance
Love watching the down votes coming in from the Addy fan club ie family and friends of Dathan. Everyone else knows it’s the truth. 😂😂
Hahaha. TWO years ago is awhile. She's not even projected to be in the top 3. And sorry, lots of regional champions running that are both faster and smarter. No one cares what swamp or place she ran in last year. This is THIS year....no chance
Love watching the down votes coming in from the Addy fan club ie family and friends of Dathan. Everyone else knows it’s the truth. 😂😂
Ritz has exactly same chance to win as in 2023. Seeded 5-10 running on a sloppy course.
The 2020 race with Young/Touhy was also on a sloppy course. Both winners led wire to wire to get the best footing. Of course Tuohy famously almost was caught by chase pack...but wasn't.
Although there is no favorite, the group of Lowen, Dudek, Bartlett and Wilson are sure to take this out fast and try to break each other. None of this group has any interest in tactics.
Chase pack will be Alder, Gullickson and Ritz.
I'll go with Lilly Alder for the win, not leading til last 400m.