ALL FIVE of NC State’s top five finished faster than Oregon’s #2!! 👀
Forgive me if this has previously been answered/if I'm missing something, but aren't these times run on different courses? How would a comparison between the two be relevant?
ALL FIVE of NC State’s top five finished faster than Oregon’s #2!! 👀
NC’s 5th @ ACCs was Sadie who didn’t run a 5000 on track in hs. So let’s go with 3rd + 4th + 6th, Hannah, Bethany, Brooke. OR’s 2nd + 3rd were Juliet and Silan.
ALL FIVE of NC State’s top five finished faster than Oregon’s #2!! 👀
Forgive me if this has previously been answered/if I'm missing something, but aren't these times run on different courses? How would a comparison between the two be relevant?
I agree that times from different races and different courses shouldn’t be compared. I think the point being made, though, was that the ACC meet was held on a more difficult course. The B1G meet was on a manicured golf course.
ALL FIVE of NC State’s top five finished faster than Oregon’s #2!! 👀
NC’s 5th @ ACCs was Sadie who didn’t run a 5000 on track in hs. So let’s go with 3rd + 4th + 6th, Hannah, Bethany, Brooke. OR’s 2nd + 3rd were Juliet and Silan.
ALL FIVE of NC State’s top five finished faster than Oregon’s #2!! 👀
Forgive me if this has previously been answered/if I'm missing something, but aren't these times run on different courses? How would a comparison between the two be relevant?
The OP said you then proceed to the next step in the process of comparing (making sense of the numbers), which is to compare course conditions, as done in post #25 to this thread.
Forgive me if this has previously been answered/if I'm missing something, but aren't these times run on different courses? How would a comparison between the two be relevant?
The OP said you then proceed to the next step in the process of comparing (making sense of the numbers), which is to compare course conditions, as done in post #25 to this thread.
In evaluating a course comparison, to increase the depth of that evaluation, you would look at the times given to athletes that possibly ran the other course. And then you do further cross-checking in other ways…
NC’s 5th @ ACCs was Sadie who didn’t run a 5000 on track in hs. So let’s go with 3rd + 4th + 6th, Hannah, Bethany, Brooke. OR’s 2nd + 3rd were Juliet and Silan.
Forgive me if this has previously been answered/if I'm missing something, but aren't these times run on different courses? How would a comparison between the two be relevant?
I agree that times from different races and different courses shouldn’t be compared. I think the point being made, though, was that the ACC meet was held on a more difficult course. The B1G meet was on a manicured golf course.
Direct place-to-place comparisons from races on different courses are not relevant and should not be compared.
However, the ACC meet was run on the Tom Sawyer State Park course -- which has hosted 3 NCAA Div 1 XC championships dating to 2012 -- and is well known (and well regarded) as the flattest of the 7 courses now in Div 1 rotation. Though damp & muddy in spots last Friday, it still lived up to its reputation as the fastest course in the nation outside of Gans Creek (slightly hillier but perfect footing).
Can't speak to the quality of the Forest Acres Golf Course which hosted B1Gs. Looks reasonably flat with firm footing. Maybe it does run as fast as Sawyer; can't say.
However, Hartman/NC State made ACCs fast by going hard from the gun; the OR women looked to be biding their time a bit before Cherubet/OR took off FTW.
Since Cherubet recently ran a sub-19 on the perfectly flat Dellinger Invite golf course, yet was over 30 secs slower at B1Gs, feel pretty certain she held back a ton at B1Gs, thus resulting in slower times for her and most everyone else.
Any any case, the ACC course was at least as flat & fast as B1Gs.
OR placed 3 ahead of Florence Caron/PA State -- who placed 19th at last year's NCAAs.
OR placed 4 ahead of Rachel Forsythe/MI State -- who placed 16th at last year's NCAAs.
OR #6 runner was Anika Thompson -- who placed 32nd at last year's NCAAs, one place behind Riley Chamberlain/BYU.
If they duplicate those efforts on Saturday, OR likely will place it's #1, #2 and #3 in the top-10, #4 in the top-20, then #5 & #6 in the top-30. That comes out to around 70 points.
NC State's Hartman, Gapes & Napoleon might all place top-10 as well -- though Hartman's lingering foot issue casts doubt over her having that level of fitness.
Then, NC State's Rauber, Michalek & Englehardt have to go toe-to-toe again OR's Frias, Barnett & Thompson. Of these 6, Thompson has the best pedigree with her 32nd at last year's NCAAs. Rauber is next best with a 50th place last year. The other 4 either ran poorly last year at NCAAs or DNR at all.
So, given this data, the intel on Hartman, OR's #1 being ahead of NC State's #1, and OR's #6 already an AA and being ahead of NC State's #6 who was outside of AA last year, have to give the nod to OR FTW, NC State to Place, BYU to Show.
You seem to be pretty certain that Oregon has deliberately been holding back. I'm not so sure.
I'd pick it:
NC State, BYU, Oregon, NM, Notre Dame.
There really is nothing wrong with Hartman. Only source of that info is this message board.
So NC State will have a front 4 of Napoleon, Gapes, Hartman and Michalak in top 20 in no particular order. Rauber, Engelhardt and Templier will come in together for the #5 spot between 35 and 50.
For either BYU or Oregon to win, they will need their best race and some help from NC State.
Rarely at nats do all the contenders run well, so most likely 2 of the 3 do not run great. We just have to see which 2.
On the other hand, Jerry and Shalane bring a lot of experience and the Oregon team is full of upperclassmen, so it would not be shocking to see them crush it.
Your judgements seem to be heavily relying upon what happened a year ago at Natty’s, while discounting the fact that some of these athletes, particularly on the NC State side, have massively leveled-up to another level. I’m specifically referring to:
(1) 20yr-old Angelina Napoleon, who was previously NC State’s 5th, finishing 96th last year at The Championship, running 20:31 on Wisconsin’s Thomas Zimmer course. Earlier this season she ran almost a full minute faster (19:34) on that same course. Napoleon runs workouts with Hartman and Gapes, and is now interchangeably one of the top three sticks of their starting lineup.
(2) 19yr-old Bethany Michalak, who was NC State’s 6th finishing 160th last year at The Championship, running 20:52. Earlier this season, Michalak ran a minute faster (19:50) on that same course. Michalak is probably now the very best #4 in the country.
(3) 19yr-old Sadie Englehardt, who was running 5k cross-country in high school a year ago and primarily known as a miler, but over this season, has moved up to NC State’s solid #5, and is probably now comparable to any of the best #5’s in the country.
In my next post, I will elaborate a bit on your comparisons with Florence Caron and Rachel Forsyths.
You seem to be pretty certain that Oregon has deliberately been holding back.
If indeed Oregon has been holding back, then they may be in for a rude awakening in a Natty’s race that is about to go down which holds nothing back from the gun, the type of race NC State has practice in this season.
Consequently, due to going out just a little too hard at the beginning might find, for instance, Alyydiz, Frias, Barnett, Thompson, and maybe even Cherubet…any of those five…in over their head at about the 5k mark, a spot they are not used to. At around the 5k mark is when Napoleon and ND’s Dalton starts picking them off. If Oregon isn’t careful, they could find themselves dropping off the podium in a flash.
Don’t misunderstand me…this is fixing out to be a clash of three stalwart titans.
Across their full lineup, I think this is quite likelythe strongest team Oregon has ever assembled in the history of their program.
Likewise, across their full lineup, I think this is the strongest team BYU has ever assembled in the history of their program.
But make no mistake, across their full lineup, NC State has assembled the strongest team ever assembled in the history of NCAA Division I Cross Country!
You seem to be pretty certain that Oregon has deliberately been holding back. I'm not so sure.
I'd pick it:
NC State, BYU, Oregon, NM, Notre Dame.
There really is nothing wrong with Hartman. Only source of that info is this message board.
So NC State will have a front 4 of Napoleon, Gapes, Hartman and Michalak in top 20 in no particular order. Rauber, Engelhardt and Templier will come in together for the #5 spot between 35 and 50.
For either BYU or Oregon to win, they will need their best race and some help from NC State.
Rarely at nats do all the contenders run well, so most likely 2 of the 3 do not run great. We just have to see which 2.
On the other hand, Jerry and Shalane bring a lot of experience and the Oregon team is full of upperclassmen, so it would not be shocking to see them crush it.
I am sure OR has deliberately held back. As in, 2 held out of West Regional and Cherotich holding back, settling for 2nd. Intel from the course reports the other top 3 OR women were cruising, knowing they had their team Q sewed up.
There is something wrong with Hartman. Her plantar issue is not an LRC forum rumor. It's a fact reported by JG based upon his recent conversation with Henes/coach. See JG's earlier post on this thread.
Henes also has a ton of experience at NCAAs. So, don't believe an unexpected genius coaching decision will factor in on Saturday.
Regarding the top-6 runners' experience at NCAAs, looks like Englehardt is the only one from NC State not to have been there. While, for OR, Cherotich & Frias have not. So, edge to NC State on this front.
So, since each team has a clear top-3 then another clear 4-6, it comes down to this: which team's duo of trios do you think will perform the best on Saturday?
I pick OR only because, based upon 2024 NCAAs as well as 2025 mid-season-to-today results, OR has the best #1 and the best #6. Everything else in the middle is all jumbled up.
OR with approx 70 points. In a squeaker over NC State.
With any other team, one might think NC State’s younger stars may not be used to this kind of pressure. But Napoleon performed quite admirably as a finalist at this summer’s World Championships. She took on a new mantle of confidence, having actually experienced a much bigger stage.
Some of this has probably rubbed off on her teammates, that see in her what is required to be great; and performing sessions twice a week with her gives them added confidence they can do it too.
Michalak has been racing cross-country in Colorado since the third grade, and of course, Englehardt is coming out of California, and she too has been doing this since at least middle-school.
This is not a bygone era of wide-eyed collegiate freshman and sophomore’s stepping up into the lights. This new era has given these young athletes opportunities to compete in national meets, like Arcadia, and in post-season meets, like Brooks PR, Hoka Festival of Miles, etc. Going back only so far as Katelyn Tuohy, although she ran NXN, did not seem to have the numerous post-season opportunities to compete against the best in the country.
Your judgements seem to be heavily relying upon what happened a year ago at Natty’s, while discounting the fact that some of these athletes, particularly on the NC State side, have massively leveled-up to another level. I’m specifically referring to:
(1) 20yr-old Angelina Napoleon, who was previously NC State’s 5th, finishing 96th last year at The Championship, running 20:31 on Wisconsin’s Thomas Zimmer course. Earlier this season she ran almost a full minute faster (19:34) on that same course. Napoleon runs workouts with Hartman and Gapes, and is now interchangeably one of the top three sticks of their starting lineup.
(2) 19yr-old Bethany Michalak, who was NC State’s 6th finishing 160th last year at The Championship, running 20:52. Earlier this season, Michalak ran a minute faster (19:50) on that same course. Michalak is probably now the very best #4 in the country.
(3) 19yr-old Sadie Englehardt, who was running 5k cross-country in high school a year ago and primarily known as a miler, but over this season, has moved up to NC State’s solid #5, and is probably now comparable to any of the best #5’s in the country.
In my next post, I will elaborate a bit on your comparisons with Florence Caron and Rachel Forsyths.
Thx for the kind words & informative two posts above.
Oversight not to have looked into Nuttycombe. Those results certainly tilt the balance towards NC State.
My reasoning -- independent strategic thought, not group think or relying upon other's formulas -- does factor in the tremendous improvements shown this fall by NC State's runners named above. However, I also factor in tremendous improvements shown this fall by Frias & Barnett/OR along w/rookie Cherotich's front running exploits.
Another set of data points was B1Gs. Record-low 18 points FTW in an 18-team league? With 6 in the top-9, early season talk of OR not having depth has been shut down. This meet has influenced my NCAA speculation the most.
So, now, my back-up prediction is this: OR & NC State tie w/70 points -- with OR winning the tie breaker.
Still sticking with OR . . . squeaking out a 70 -71 win over NC State.
FWIW: the Stride Report guys also feel this way, very much in a quandary re/picking a winner but now thinking OR does have enough depth to compete against NC State & BYU while potentially having the front-of-the-lineup firepower to take the win
BTW. My favorite team is Stanford. So, no dog in the OR-NC State fight. After West Regionals -- Bunnage back and great running from Kennedy & Scratchard -- thinking the Cardinal has a remote-to-tiny but still measurable chance of climbing the podium to 4th.
I think it very unlikely OR or NC St will have 3 each in the top 10 (team scorers only even). I think it is a given that Jane, Doris and Pamela will be in top 10, so that would mean almost noone else would be in top 10. Salma El Badra, Mary Bonner Dalton, Vera Sjoberg have already shown they can run with NC States best. Rosemary Longisa, Amy Bunnage and Sophia Kennedy just ran with Oregon's best. Riley Chamberlain just ran close to Pamela. That gets us to 16. Joy Naukot and Isca Chelangat just ran either side of Chamberlain so that gets us to 18. Similarly there are a lot of runners I project to finish ahead of any of these teams remaining runners. I have yet to mention anyone from Florida, nor Maureen Rutoh of OK State, not the Alabama 2/3 runners, nor any Iowa State runners, or other West Virginia runners. Thus I think the 4 and 5 for the top teams will score over 70 in total.
So I think it is more likely Oregon and NC State end up with 3 each in top 20, maybe top 15. I have been waiting all year for Thompson and Barnett of Oregon to show their form of earlier years and it has not happened. As noted Forsyth has not shown she is as strong this year as she showed at Nationals last year. I know nothing about the B1G course but I do think there are very few courses where times close to 20:00 are that good these days (Forsyth ran 19:57). I see NC State winning with about 110 points, with Oregon and BYU (including Hutchins off the bench) about 130.
One advantage BYU has over NC State and Oregon is their previous experience racing on the Gans Creek course at Pre-Nats.
Possibly Chamberlain may want to meter the main pack down early, in order to help a team that doesn’t necessarily have as strong of #4, but does have the back-end depth.
But others in the top 20, like Longisa, Jelelgo and Kirwa have also raced that course this season, either at Pre-Nats or at the Gans Creek Classic. There should be a few to give Hartman and Gapes company at the front of the second pack, keeping it an honest race.
Interesting that Florida is seen as the heavy favorite for the 4th place podium spot despite ND being stronger through 5. In fact, the top 7 of ND are stronger than Florida's 5th. If anyone in the scoring picture for ND has a breakthrough and their low sticks remain consistent then this is a very likely podium team. Really hard to get behind the mail order teams like Florida or New Mexico. Imagine Florida, New Mexico or Oregon without the mail order component? Oregon is more thoughtful about optics but it is only a contender due to foreign recruits. For the sake of the sport I hope Florida stays off the podium.
One advantage BYU has over NC State and Oregon is their previous experience racing on the Gans Creek course at Pre-Nats.
Possibly Chamberlain may want to meter the main pack down early, in order to help a team that doesn’t necessarily have as strong of #4, but does have the back-end depth.
But others in the top 20, like Longisa, Jelelgo and Kirwa have also raced that course this season, either at Pre-Nats or at the Gans Creek Classic. There should be a few to give Hartman and Gapes company at the front of the second pack, keeping it an honest race.
Oregon was there in September for the Gans Creek Classic. Cherubet was 5th and Frias was 27th.