D2 NCAA XC

My understanding in reading everything is that in Step 1 (Parts A & B) are calculated separately then added together at the end of Step 1.....1.5 points for a direct win over another team under consideration and +1 point / -1 point in a secondary win or loss (thus the records). A record of 5-1 would yield 4 points with +5 points for the wins and -1 point for the loss. I switched this in my second post after reading your explanation.

My rationale is from the criteria where it says

During this step, head-to-head competition and common DII opponents will be evaluated simultaneously

So I took this as, you are doing Step 1 Part A and Step 1 Part B at the same time. Not Step 1 Part A then moving on to Step 1 Part B.

There was nothing in the criteria that stated you couldn't get more than 1 head to head win against a team (Tiffin having 2 wins over PBA) in Part A and that you couldn't get a secondary win over a team you had a head to head win over for Part B. If I am wrong, someone please correct me.

Then at the end you take your head to head wins in one column and your secondary wins / losses in the other column and add them together to push out a net score. The highest net score is the team that is selected.

If there are any ties then you go to step 2 (PGR), step 3 (Common Non-D2), step 4 (Committee).

It gets tricky with a number of 4th place teams still in play and the PGR not able to be used as a comparison but at least it looked like to me you never get that far.

This is what collegexc.com is predicting on the women's side, does anyone have any reason not to think these are the teams:

Davis & Elkins
East Stroudsburg
Edinboro

Winona State
Pittsburg State
Nebraska-Kearney
Minnesota State

So Conn. St.
Roberts Wesleyan
Jefferson

Grand Valley St.
Cedarville
Lewis
Northern Michigan
Walsh

Palm Beach Atlantic
Lee (Tenn.)
Tampa

Adams State
UCCS
Colorado School of Mines
Western Colorado
West Texas A&M
CSU Pueblo
Colorado Mesa
Fort Lewis

Wingate
Catawba
Flagler

Chico State
Cal Poly Pomona
Western Washington
Biola
Stanislaus State

What do you all think?

Does Michigan Tech have a chance

Looks like they have not.
Here is the two type of predictions going around:

1: Colo. Christian
2: Pittsburg St
3: Augustana (S.D.)
4: Nebraska-Kearney
5: Oklahoma
6: Missouri Southern
7: West Texas A&M
8: UC-Colo. Spgs
9 Alaska Anchorage
10: Northwest Nazarene

1:CCU
2: Pitt State
3:West Texas
4:UCCS
5:Alaska Anchorage
6:Northwest Nazarene

7: Augustana

8: tiffin

9:walsh

10: Catawba

I really don’t see any way Missouri southern gets in after getting 8th at Reigonals.

1:CCU

2: Pitt State

3:West Texas

4:UCCS

5:Alaska Anchorage

6:Northwest Nazarene

7. Augustana

8. Alabama-Huntsville

9. Tiffin

10. MSU-Denver

That is correct order because Huntsville has to go in before Tiffin due to head to head win. Then Tiffin in 9th, then MSU-D over Walsh due to secondary win through beating Fort Lewis. The last 4 can't just be a chain of point gap ratio because that isn't how that designed to break a tie and then push teams in. There is no "points" like with D1. D2 is all based around a wins/losses chain with direct wins and then secondary wins when comparing teams.

Go race teams out of your region and beat them during the regular season to get wins so that way there is no mess with point gap ratio due to having zero wins in the season. It's almost ridiculous. Look at the RMAC schools, they all travel to different meets to collect wins over other regions so that way those schools have the wins needed to get at large bids. You can't just sit at home and do jack squat all season then complain when the South Central gets all the bids. Go race teams. That's the entire point of the sport anyways.

I went back and reran it. This is 100% through 6. Then 7 would be Augustana based on tiebreaker with MSUD on point gap ratio (Huntsville as the 4 in their region can not be counted in this tiebreaker). Then 8 9 and 10 are MSU-D, Fort Lewis, and Huntsville all together. All 3 have direct or indicate wins over Tiffin (and Walsh).

Would Kearny not also get in? They have the same record as Augustana and a closer regional point gap than MSU Denver. Wouldnt the central region just keep winning on this tie breaker since it was a lot closer and they all have 0 wins or does someone have a loss in there

The point of the system is so that you don’t have to travel as much to get your wins. Most schools don’t have the budget that RMAC schools do for travel. No one from the south central went the chile pepper this year which is why there’s no cross over between those two regionals PSU went to Lewis and finished over 100 points higher than fort Lewis. MSU Denver barely beat fort Lewis at their region. Augustana finished regional gap ratio .93 Kearny .76 Oklahoma .86 mssu .93 MSU Denver regional gap ratio is .66

Or it is Huntsville in 7 because they do have head to head wins at that level. Augustana then 8th on gap ratio. Then Kearny, then MSU-D. Unless for whatever reason OBU didn't run a full a squad till regionals because they have a lot of losses from DBUs meet.

Ultimately I know I'm right through 6 teams, which is all the matters for me and the team I work with. I typically track things, and wanted to put all the teams on that list just for the love of the game. The entire situation with having to use regional gap ratios so early in the selection because of an entire region having zero wins and losses at that point just throws it off.

Haha. RMAC schools budget for travel? Cry me a river.

I am an RMAC alum from back in the day. The RMAC school I know fund-raises for their budget to go to one out-of-state / out-of-region regular season meet because no good teams are going to travel to Colorado to compete against RMAC schools. Ever think of that?

There is no law against your team fund-raising or paying for their own gear, travel, etc.

Okay, so technically there is two correct paths for the last 4 teams in.

Path A

Huntsville

MSUD

Fort Lewis

Tiffin

Path B

Huntsville

Augustana

Nebraska-Kearney

OBU

This is all because the point gap ratio was not intended to be used to push that many teams in. It was a tiebreaker designed compare two 5th place teams from across the country that have no data between them. A 4th place team can not be taken into account for this. That is why Huntsville goes in at 7 because they have the most wins of the teams they are being compared too. Then you get to comparing Augustana (central 5th), MSUD (South Central 7th), and Tiffin (midwest 4th) for the 8th spot. Well you can't compare Tiffin on point gap to either and then MSU-D has a secondary win over Tiffin by beating Fort Lewis, so then 8th and 9th is MSU-D and Fort Lewis, then Tiffin slides in at 10th. But if they use regional point gap just between Augustana and MSU-D then path B is what works and those three teams from the Central get in. So this is going to have to be a decision by the 8 person committee on what to do.

People seem to be jumping straight to the Point Gap Ratio which makes no sense. You have to get through Step 1 (A&B) before you even get to Step 2. The criteria clearly states that you only move to Step 2 if there is more than one team remaining.

I agree that Huntsville should be the 7th team in.

In the 8th round (Fayetteville, Augustana, St. Michael's, Tiffin, Palm Beach Atlantic, MSUD, Catawba, San Marcos)

Tiffin has 2 wins x 1.5 over Palm Beach Atlantic (South #5) and 1 win x 1.5 over San Marcos (West #6) which is worth 4.5 points according to the criteria. They have a 4-2 record which is only equal to +2 points. They have a loss against MSUD via Ft. Lewis.

MSUD has no head to head wins against any team in consideration. They have 3-0 record in secondary wins against common opponents amongst the 7 teams in which they are being compared. This would give them +3 points.

"DII opponents will be evaluated simultaneously comparing each team to each team by the score of head-to-head win (multiplied by 1.5) and adding the score for DII common opponents net wins."

Tiffin Total: 6.5
MSUD Total: 3

The head to head wins matter more than the secondary wins in any round. MSUD lack of head to head wins is what is hurting them. MSUD is not being compared to Walsh because they aren't even a team in consideration. They are only getting 1 point from a win over Ft. Lewis at regionals thus beating Tiffin.

1.5 pts > 1 pt in a secondary chain win.

You are correct that you cannot compare Tiffin and MSUD on Point Gap Ratio but the committee should not even get to that step.

How people have Augustana getting in is a head scratcher for me. No head to head wins in any round. Very few secondary wins. Again, you are not reaching the point gap ratio step because there is a clear selection after step 1.

Ft. Lewis also beat MSUD at RMAC's so would those secondary wins / losses cancel???

You keep going back to the points when it is wins/losses. The reason I have MSU-D and Fort Lewis ahead of Tiffin is because of that direct (and then indirect) loss that they have to both those schools. So they advance before Tiffin can and then Tiffin follows them in next as the last team in.

rules changed clearly and head to head doesn’t have the same impact in 2025, I would agree on Tiffin 8 and even Walsh in 9.

2025: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/crosstrack/d2/crosscountry/2025-26D2XCC_SelectionProcedures.pdf

2024:

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/crosstrack/d2/crosscountry/D2XCC_SelectionProcedures.pdf

The rules did not change this year. They just put the points out their for transparency purposes to try to make it easier for people to look at. Head to head is the key still.

No where in the criteria does it say it comes down to wins/losses other than that metric is used the following way in Step 1 Part B.

"Each team is given a SCORE for DII common opponent net wins = (Common
Competitor Wins) – (Common Competitor Losses)"

The only thing that matters is wins when they calculate the final number.

Then that number of net wins is added to the number points in the head to head category.

Then those two numbers are added together.

"During this step, head-to-head competition and common DII opponents will be evaluated simultaneously comparing each team to each team by the score of head-to-head wins (multiplied by 1.5) and adding the score for DII common opponents net wins."

Head-to-head is #1.

The points has nothing to do with it. The 1.5 points mentioned is only when comparing teams in a chain. Example A beats B, B beats C and C beats A. They are from different regions. If comparing A and B in the same round then then A would get 1.5 points and B would get 1. It's simply to show that head-to-head is #1 and then second degree wins is #2.

There are no total points. It's not like the Kolas system. You can't push teams in.