What HS mile time would get you onto 95% of D1 teams?

Good luck to your kid, but honestly, you're sort of asking the wrong question. Tell your kid to have fun, be a good teammate and a good person, and to study hard. If he's fast enough, the scholarships will find him, but even if that happens the chance that he's the next Grant Fisher is like .0001%. He needs to get a good education that will set him up for actually living his life.

Also, there's no shame in running D2 or D3. For lots of kids, it's just a better fit. Rather than being "just a number," both on a massive team and at a massive school, which most D1 programs are, lots of kids like smaller environments and they may also fit better with their career plans. Certainly if your kid is thinking about going into teaching, for example, then he'll be looking at a state college, not a major university.

Maybe sub-4:04 (1600) for an in-state school

Probably sub-4:00 for an elite private or out of state school.

ivies don’t give money so options for top academic conferences dwindle pretty quickly - a 4:15 would likely get you a 50% athletic scholarship at the top 3 non service academy Patriot League schools - which are all strong academically - after those schools there isnt really athletic aid in the conference only merit aid from the rest of the conference

Good mile programs are no longer paying serious money based on a 4:05-15 PR. The ones that will pay money for that are not programs that will develop you well. NCAA is now inflated with Africans who are 30 years old, and Europeans who have been training professionally since 13 years old.
as an American if you want to develop and get scholarship money, train to run DI level recruiting times, and then go to one of the top ten DII programs. If you develop into a 3:55 or faster, you can always transfer to a powerhouse DI as a junior. But if you don’t, you’ll have more fun running DII and you’ll have gotten a heavily discounted college education.

No, this individual is a teammate of my daughter. I have not been involved in any of his training or his recruiting process, but since we are all very close we talk about training and long term development often. I share my ideas and am able to give perspective as someone who ran (terribly) for two perennial top 20 D1 schools (I was an invited walk-on so I have little experience myself in the recruiting process). I also have friends who've made it very far in this sport, so I have some valuable knowledge I can share to help this kid maximize his opportunities. Picking the right place to continue developing your talent is critical if you want to avoid flaming out.

As far as recruiting, I haven't actually asked, but I'm pretty sure this kid's father did all the work himself; I don't think our school's coach was involved. It might even have just been the kid himself, for these kind of things he's incredibly proactive and he has helped my daughter out immensely with how the recruiting process works. My daughter hasn't started reaching out to colleges yet but will begin to do so after XC ends. Having this kid and his father as a resource is invaluable because they've got experience at the highest level.

As far as me coaching, it would be more accurate to say I manage my daughter's overall development and coach her in the off season, while my daughter has a very capable coach during the season (he doesn't coach in the off season). I'm pretty sure she's the only person I will ever coach. My knowledge is based upon huge influence from HS teammates (two D1 All Americans, one was a WC team member), HS coach (former school record holder at a top D1 school), college teammates (one multiple time NCAA champion and former pro on the DL circuit), college roommate (podiumed in a world marathon major), etc. I was a true running bum back in the day and was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time where I met some very accomplished people, so I have a lot of people I can reach out to directly for help if I need it.

I understand your frustration about coaches not necessarily helping out where you think they would. What specific questions do you have?

Even at Oklahoma State, you have guys on the xc and track roster this year who have run 4:05, 4:06, 4:07, 4:11, and 4:17 (1:53 800 at OSU), as pr's. A couple of those guys also ran 13:36/13:51 at OSU, but dropped a lot from their hs times. Two of them are English and have good performances at Euro xc, but still the track times are nowhere near what you might think would be required at that program. That doesn't mean they got any scholarship dollars, especially the Americans. Some of these guys only ran in the 14s, one closer to 15, in the 5000m. So, there are roster spots to be had even at one of the best places in the entire country for 4:10-4:20 high schoolers.

4:10 as high schooler will be safe at any school outside of maybe your top 5 programs.

4:10-4:20 range for NCAA Div 1. Lol!!!! Jane Hedengren ran 4:23 as a HS senior months ago. If you are a senior in HS, you better be running under 4:06 1 mile for Oregon.

3:43

What are the PRs of the freshman class? Looking at what current guys ran in high school because times have dropped significantly recently and roster cuts kicked in this year. You fell into the parent trap. Angry dads post here about their little Jonny running 4:12 while getting no responses from coaches of teams who have several 22 seniors on the team who only ran 4:15 in high school. The parents think their kid deserves a spot even though the team has 4 guys running sub 4 now.

This is critical info. Very understandable that you are thinking about how to pay for college. Sports is still a golden ticket for some. The problem is that it's a risky bet for all but a select few, and there's no way to know until you're actually running state-championship-qualifying times if you'll ever be in the conversation for scholarship money. It's like wanting to be an NFL player. Fine to have the dream, but naive to count on it.

So what can you do as a parent? What you are doing now is fine -- getting a sense of possibilities, which schools give scholarships and to what kinds of talent. But you can also think about what schools are affordable and of high quality, and which of those might be willing to just open the doors (not offer scholarships) to athletes with future potential. Some parents go so far as to move to a state with a good state university system. (I understand that Iowa State is trying to fill a bunch of holes next year.😊)

At any rate, good luck to you and your son. There are lots of great options out there for hard-working kids.

Some of those 3:55-3:58 guys were likely seniors, so they have to be replaced with high schoolers. They're not going to fill those spots with 3:55 high schoolers, they will fill them with 4:05 guys who become 3:55-3:58 guys in a couple years.

What seems to be happening though is they are increasingly filling those spots through the transfer portal. So a wise person might consider going to a more developmental program somewhere where they will be a factor, and developing into a sub 4 guy, then consider transferring into a more big time program (but also should take into consideration that they are developing well and maybe they should just stay put).

True in the past. Some difference today is that roster limits kicked in which means that teams won't be replacing some of those guys. Add NIL for top Americans allowing coaches to be creative by bringing in more foreigners with the freed up scholarship dollars which lessens opportunities for high school kids even more. Division 3 will make huge gains over the next few years as a result.

I am a private coach. A time of 4:03 or faster as a high school junior will make almost any roster. A 4:09 as a junior makes about 50% of rosters. I had a kid who ran 4:11 as a junior and couldn’t get on any of the Power 4 schools he contacted, even those that consistently finish in the bottom half of their conference meet.

Rosters are contracting across the country, and more international students and portal transfers are taking many of the vacant spots. From a high school to college perspective, the sport has changed. My advice: enjoy being on a high school team, competing, and sometimes winning invitationals and championships. If your kid really wants to run at the next level, be prepared to look outside of Division I.

Your best source for this info is going to be coaches of the middle to low schools and the middle to low conferences. A coach needs to show reasonable placing at the conference championship meet. For instance, look at the Mountain West Conference 2024 Track and Field Championship with 8 men's teams, in which New Mexico finished 5th with 83 points and Wyoming finished 6th with 51 points. Let's focus on New Mexico. Within New Mexico's men's track and field history and tradition, that coach most likely gets to keep his job. Event points are scored 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1. If those 83 points were scored by 12 full-scholarship athletes, the average contribution of each of those 12 is 6.9 points. Call it 7 points. If that coach can rely on you to score 7 points, you're a sure bet for a full scholarship. But you can be more optimistic, because some top athletes will score more than 7 points. For the example we're looking at, ignoring the relays, New Mexico's individual scorers and their points were 11, 10, 10, 8, 8, 5, 5, 3, 3, 2, 2.

So from the perspective of track and field only, in retrospect to the New Mexico coach spending scholarship money, _anybody_ who scored points was a good purchase.

Of course the decision-making is HIGHLY complicated by cross country and any separate pool of scholarship money there. If you can contribute to the cross-country team's scoring, you're an even better purchase; on the other hand you have to compete with runners who might be able to score in both sports. In this 2024 case, New Mexico's investment in distance runners led to its improvement to _perfectly_ win the 2024 MWC cross country title and then score 171 points and finish second in the 2025 MWC track and field championship meet. A solid 4:10 high school mile time seems unlikely to catch this coach's attention unless you show some multi-event potential.

These observations would lead you a step lower, to the MWC programs of Wyoming, Boise State, Fresno State.

In summary, I've failed to answer the question of providing a full-scholarship mile time. But I've offered some perspective toward finding an answer. It's all about the coach a) keeping their job, and secondarily, b) improving their program. Study the results so that you can properly place yourself in a position to offer value to the coaches you want to talk to. Go talk to these middling coaches in middling programs, and hope to work your way up.

this is a silly discussion. first, dad pretends it's not his goal, it's his kid's, even though funny dad is the one asking about what his kid's dream would get him.

second, here's reality. my current home of texas. 2 kids made 405 in all grades in all classes in public and private last year. 2. none did in the regular season. in the regular season it was 407-409 that led the state. and this is not some scrub TF state. and if you aren't that fast the fastest programs aren't returning your emails. and almost no one can do it. hence me saying it's "freaks." it's god gifted that specific kid plus they work out like mad.

the 2 kids i just mentioned who broke 405, were running 415 and 418 as HS frosh. one of them was running 423 in junior high. maybe you think your kid is precocious. you don't live in a hotbed.*** that's actually good for a junior high kid.

so your kid could do everything right and odds are he plateaus 420-440 like most kids. if he's north of 430 maybe some d1 interest. if not, lower divisions.

most areas, 425-430 wins your state progression meet and sends you to the next step. 440 to score points. 445 maybe wins JV. your kid, my guess, more like 5. which is more like the varsity/JV dividing line. most people these goals suffice.

***i stopped doing LJ as a kid because i was bored of doing 18'6" in 7th grade and finishing 6th at meets. only when i saw the broader world did i realize most places that's a good jump. but it's those sort of kids you're up against for elite TF slots and scholarships.

also, and not to split hairs here, but my guess is you run 405-410 SOMEONE d1 offers you a full. just not oregon. the game becomes i have a top program offering me a slot/partial vs. a solid program offering a full to be their star.

the premise of this thread is off because most kids face tradeoffs. d1 walkon vs. d3 star. or d1 walkon top program vs. d1 roster lock offered money.

Not sure how many times I've stated in this thread already that I'm not counting on or expecting my kid to become a world-beater. And that I'm trying to temper his expectations but not kill his dreams.

I was just curious about where things line up in terms of scholarship and NIL $$$ because I literally had no clue.

I think my kid prioritizes going to a good school and getting a good education over being some kind of running star. But the reality is that if he wants to go outside of state schools, it's going to cost money that we can't afford, and he won't be eligible for subsidized loans. I mean, my alma mater costs like $85k/year all-in now. We have two kids. We can't spend $300k+ on each of them for college! And I personally think it would be foolish to take on well over 6 figures of unsubsidized student loans unless you're going to med school and pretty committed to actually becoming a doctor.

If he ends up being the kind of kid who even goes 4:20-4:30 and that can result in SOME kind of aid at a D2/D3 solid academic school, I'm sure he'd take that in a heartbeat.

But again, he's only 14 and is just getting started.