Realistically, What Are Conner Mantz’s Chances of Winning a Major?

Only on Letsrun do the dregs emerge with minimizing comments after someone shatters a 23 yrs standing American record in the marathon. Much has to be nearly perfect to run a 2:04 marathon, which is already at the extreme limits of human performance. I realize perspective is too much to ask of the mentally deranged lurker crowd

This. A weak international field (perpahs a travel ban on east Africa?) in an American marathon is the way

Kiptum ran 2:00 at probably age 26.

Kiptum almost certainly doping though. Kenyan. Meteoric rise. Undoped he probably runs 2.04 or worse

Well, unfortunately, modern running community has full access to bouncy shoes as well as other, ahem, “training methods.”

At least he’ll have the AR for a year or two. Got to be another American 2:08 marathoner out there… right?

I agree that it would have to be NY or Boston, on a bad weather day. Cold, headwind, precipitation. Like a late in the season XC race. A day when almost all of the Africans would say "no mas."

Young is a low 2:07 guy who will run 2:06 in Valencia (or slightly faster even) unless something goes horribly wrong.

Listen up, Jibronies. A 28 year old just set the AR and was 7 seconds from the podium at a major. Could he possibly win one, absolutely! Will he ever be favored or betting odds to win one? No, probably not. But it's a marathon, weird stuff happens when you are racing for 2+ hours. It isn't just a fitness check. Here are Mantz's first 3 years marathoning....

4th Boston

4th Chicago

6th NYC

6th Boston

7th Chicago

8th Paris Olympics

11th Boston

I think you guys are discrediting too much a 28 year old American who just set the AR and has a 59 minute Half PR and has genuinely solid marathon results. I loved the comment about him winning Worlds at better odds than a true Major though.

I think he is also on the upward trajectory, he is definitely trending in the right direction!

Is it a monumental task to win a major, absolutely! But this kid knows how to race. I didn't cherry pick one or two of his marathons. I listed every single one.

I don't think we've seen the "best" Connor Mantz yet. I don't know what the odds are, but I definitely think he has what it takes to win one given the right circumstances. Boston or New York are certainly within his wheelhouse! Give bad conditions and I will put money on him to still place high. He isn't scared to race late into marathons and put it all on the line.II feel like given these factors and if he does that consistently for another 5ish years, one may fall his way!

Low on a time trial course that brings in a legitimate field that has multiple runners under 2:03. You saw the top guys go out too fast & him run an even 2:04 on Sunday. That was good enough for 4th. He has a much better shot at Boston or NYC. You sometimes get weaker fields in random years, although I feel like both races have been doing a bit better in recent years. Mantz can't really fly under the radar so I doubt top runners let him get away like Meb did. Plausible that he gets it done at some point in a tactical race or on a bad weather day. I would bet against it in his career, just because depth is stacked at this level. He needs a lot to go right and a lot to go wrong for other athletes. He should have a similar career to Ryan Hall -- wins at the biggest domestic races (including OTs) + podiums at world class races + top-10 Olympics. Nothing wrong with that.

Strong race from him, and hope he has a good couple of A races in him. Seems he's going with a conservative approach in training, which should be helpful. But sometimes elites are just spent after years of marathoning.

Bit embarrassing all those guys here posting how he should race more aggressive. Easy to do from the couch, beer in hand. Ever try to go out a few mins below goal pace. He got a result to his name, mission accomplished. Now let's see what he has in store.

Well - she was the only runner in the field with a carbon-plated shoe that year. So 2-4 minute head start right there.

What do you think the chances Meb would win a major?

What about Des Linden?

What about Yuki Kawauchi?

Yes I believe Americans need to go out and race.

Too many 2:01/2:02 guys in the marathon. It would be a miracle.

I think Mantz can win a Boston (or a NYC). Those are different types of courses. He wasn’t too far back of 2:02 guy Korir at Boston this year. But it would have to be the perfect day and perfect setup.

More likely he will podium, more than once. Mantz ran really smart a few days ago, really smart, even splitting. I can see him doing back to back 1:01-highs eventually, but I can’t see him ever running sub-2:03. But he’s been just off the podium two marathons in a row now.

Boston is the most likely place he can win, and he’s shown before that he’s willing to go for it there.

Yeah, I think the odds are very good that he has a podium finish in the future. The problem with winning is that the best guy can handle the 1:01 and the next best guys who go with him eventually fade, some pretty badly. That's where Mantz has an advantage, because he basically time trials instead of racing, which gets him his best finish possible, but probably not the win unless the top dog messes up his own plan. I guess what I'm saying is that Mantz is unbelievably great, but it is highly unlikely that he'll ever be amongst the 3 or 4 most talented in a major marathon field, and I don't see that changing, so something's got to go wrong for the other guys for him to beat them.

I picture who is obviously Mayeroff here like the epic Sam Rockwell scene in white lotus, except on anti-EPO

I gave some data to chatgpt and asked the question and got back this, which I think is pretty fair:

In one given World Major Marathon (when fully fit and in good conditions): maybe 4–6% chance of winning.
Over a career of, say, 8–12 attempts at majors: maybe a 15–25% chance of at least one victory.

You don't think Mantz was out there racing? Just because he didn't go in the WR pace group doesn't mean he wasn't racing. Look, he's not Kiplimo, and he's not Korir. He's not in 2:01 flat shape, so he (rightfully) did not go in that pace group - he knows this, I know this, why do people on here not know this?