I don't like Hocker at all, but I've got to admit that I would rather have a season in which I would only win Olympic gold or world championship gold rather than winning a couple of big meets and no global championship.
I don't like Hocker at all, but I've got to admit that I would rather have a season in which I would only win Olympic gold or world championship gold rather than winning a couple of big meets and no global championship.
Why is it an either or? Being the best means performing in both the majors and minors, not just one of the two.
In 2026 Hocker should focus on being Hocker. Just like he has been doing all along. Hocker had a plan. Hocker did everything in his power to carry out his plan. Hocker accomplished his plan, partially. Hocker lived happily ever after.
I am certain 2028 is on his radar. Wining the 1500 and 5000 in 2028 would be sweet. Hocker is my favorite in the 1500 and 5000 in 2028.
I would like to see a fast 1000m race with Hocker in it. I'd also like to see Jakob, Kerr, Nuguse, Kessler, Laros and the top 800m guys in it
Not 100% sure of the appeal of the plodders (Hocker, Jakob, Kerr) in it. We saw how fast Attaoui and F. Lagat ran. Guys who can’t run 1:44 in their sleep aren’t going to run that fast in this era. The guys worth seeing are Wanyonyi, Sedjati, Arop, Laros, Wightman, Nader, Attaoui, Masalela.
Yeah I'm struggling to see or understand the path to a WR for Hocker here.
Also what, we've finally figured out that Jakob isn't going to get this record, so the new guy by default is Hocker?
I'll say this right now, if Hocker even just broke 3.27.0 it would be an absolutely incredible performance from him. Why? Because to run to that sort of time you have to be prepared to commit to the front of the race and in his entire career we have never seen him do this in the level of race he would need to do it in.
There have been 7 sub 3.27 races in history (and 8 performances) and all but one of them were non-competitive, blow-out time trial races.
El G 3.26.0 - 2nd place Laban Rotich 3.30.9
El G 3.26.12 - 2nd Lagat 3.26.34 - the only actually competitive sub 3.27.0 race ever
El G 3.26.45 - 2nd Rotich 3.29.91
Kiprop 3.26.69 - 2nd Makhloufi 3.28.75
Jakob 3.26.73 - 2nd Cheruiyot 3.28.71
El G 3.26.89 - 2nd Chirchir 3.30.88
El G 3.26.91 - 2nd Shabunin 3.34.63
I think it's just too simplistic to say "well with no major champs in 2026 this is when he will finally go for a time". I just don't think that is who he is. Jakob is wired to get out in front, chase split and numbers. Hocker is wired to chase guys down and muscle past them in the final 100m of races, but as I showed above it's extraordinarily rare for that scenario to play out in the really quick 1500m.
So you'd be relying on Jakob to get back fully healthy, forgo another season trying for the 5000m record (because the physical requirements for the 1500m and 5000m records are not the same and need specific in training) and have him basically pace Hocker through 1200m in 2.45.5 - essentially replicate the 2001 Brussels race just a half second or so faster through 1200m. Seriously, that is really wishful thinking - I'm not even convinced Jakob will ever be back in sub 3.27 shape which I'm sure upsets all the fanboys, but we will see.
I don't even think he needs it. He is already establishing himself as one of the greatest 1500m competitors ever. Honestly I think he should spend 2026 not over-racing/focussing on the 1500m and really try and run a great 2000m/3000m outdoors, and also try and run a great mile. If he can win the 1500m in 27 and then repeat in 2028 (which he has the ability to) then he is on the Mt Rushmore of the event with El G, Morceli and Coe and it might be a long time until anyone even challenges that.
I’m not going to read your whole post, but I agree with your overall take. Paris 2024 was basically an all out time trial for Cole with Jakob serving as the rabbit. Right under 3:27 would be about what Cole is physiologically capable of. No shame in that. Jakob has tried countless times and still can’t touch 3:26 flat. Sub 3:27 is ridiculously fast. El G was a freak. My bet is Jakob never comes close to the WR again.
If I were Cole, and if I wanted to shut people up, I would just focus on winning races as much as possible next season with no major championships. Run on the rail in every race, conserve energy, wait for an opening, and kick for the win. Win as easy as possible. I think WR time trials would be a waste of time. I don’t know much about the World Ultimate Championships, but if it is not on the level of WC or OG and does not pay out well, then Cole doesn’t need to invest too much worry in peaking and could just focus on winning races throughout the season. If the DL is on, he should obviously focus on winning on the circuit and qualify for the DL final.
Not sure why you have five downvotes. They must be from people who actually believe that Hocker is capable of breaking the 1500m WR.
It’s mixed gender lol. Realistically, a team of Strand/Kessler plus Hocker, and 2 of Sinclaire/MacKay/Hiltz should be able to get no worse than 2nd. Kenya will be favorite though, and the Aussies might have a strong team.
I’m not going to read your whole post, but I agree with your overall take. Paris 2024 was basically an all out time trial for Cole with Jakob serving as the rabbit. Right under 3:27 would be about what Cole is physiologically capable of. No shame in that. Jakob has tried countless times and still can’t touch 3:26 flat. Sub 3:27 is ridiculously fast. El G was a freak. My bet is Jakob never comes close to the WR again.
If I were Cole, and if I wanted to shut people up, I would just focus on winning races as much as possible next season with no major championships. Run on the rail in every race, conserve energy, wait for an opening, and kick for the win. Win as easy as possible. I think WR time trials would be a waste of time. I don’t know much about the World Ultimate Championships, but if it is not on the level of WC or OG and does not pay out well, then Cole doesn’t need to invest too much worry in peaking and could just focus on winning races throughout the season. If the DL is on, he should obviously focus on winning on the circuit and qualify for the DL final.
Not sure why you have five downvotes. They must be from people who actually believe that Hocker is capable of breaking the 1500m WR.
Yes, people here legitimately think someone who has run 3:27 once and 3:29 once is going to break the world record just because he won a 5000 race where the favorites were either coming back from injury or didn't qualify.
I would like to see a fast 1000m race with Hocker in it. I'd also like to see Jakob, Kerr, Nuguse, Kessler, Laros and the top 800m guys in it
Not 100% sure of the appeal of the plodders (Hocker, Jakob, Kerr) in it. We saw how fast Attaoui and F. Lagat ran. Guys who can’t run 1:44 in their sleep aren’t going to run that fast in this era. The guys worth seeing are Wanyonyi, Sedjati, Arop, Laros, Wightman, Nader, Attaoui, Masalela.
I actually agree with Jon Gault on this one. Hocker is capable of a 1:43 high at least. He still PRd with his 1:45 mid during Grand Slam Track and has repeated multiple times that the goal was to win those races if he could without sacrificing his heavy threshold training block for that spring. He clearly wasn't sharp. The speed sharp Cole Hocker can run 1:43 in his sleep.
Having said that, you are correct in implying that he shouldn't run the 800. It would be a waste of time and he could use his injury free fitness to focus on events he is more suited for, like obviously the 1500. He could run 1:43 in the 8 but it would mean nothing because obviously that is not going to beat the big dogs these days. If I was him, I would just run 1500s and miles all next season and try to win races and not focus on PRs or records at all. PRs clearly don't matter with his signature kick in championship races in the global finals. He has shown that all he needs is the A standard and a top 3 finish at USAs and he will peak for championships better than anyone else. Chasing records is for suckers. He's this era's Mo Farah.
Does it matter when that one race is the Olympic Games, the world championships, and the ncaa championships?
Technically he actually won five races this year. He won two indoors races; a 1000m and a 5k where he dipped under 13 and just beat his training partner Cooper Teare. He won three outdoors; the 5k at USAs, his first heat of the 1500 in Tokyo, and of course the 5k Gold Medal.
Hocker should time his peak for the Bowerman mile, July 2026. Meet organizers should move the start time of the Prefontaine Classic so that the mile goes off in the evening when its cooler. Wavelights set at the world record time and a pro rabbit leading them through 1200 meters so the onus is not on Jakob to lead. Let the crowd down onto the outer lanes of the track after the start and let's get ready to rock. Fans would be electric cheering/pulling for Hocker, all the big names would be in the race...so who wants it...it'd be off the hook.
If you were in Hocker’s shoes, what would you prioritize most for the 2026 season? Which would mean more to his legacy? Getting a gold in both 1500 and 5k at world ultimate champs or breaking the 1500m WR?
I love how everyone who never ran at the elite world class level just throws around the idea of breaking world records like it's a check box of something to do. Cole Hocker is a two time global champion in two different events, and he still gets shade thrown on him for "not racing enough and or winning more". WTF!!! It would seem logical for him to focus on a world record attempt at some event this upcoming season. If I'm not mistaken, he ran a 7:23 indoor 3k at Millrose last winter which was under the previous WR, and it was an off event for him. That being said, he has the potential to chase a WR in the 1500/Mile/2000/3000 outdoors in 2026. Does he get any of them? Who knows. I'm sure he will plan out a few races to try. If for some reason he doesn't, having an Olympic Gold medal and a World Championship Gold Medal aren't bad things to have on a resume. I'm sure Cole sleeps pretty good at night having "checked those two boxes".
Does anyone think Hocker realistically has a shot at 3:25.xx? Seems completely outside the realm of possibility to me. He's a great talent and competitor but he's not El Guerrouj.
Absolutely the 1500m world record, or rather, the mile world record (which I believe Hocker has a better shot of breaking).
The World Athletics Ultimate Championships are a new thing. Basically World Athletics' answer to Grand Slam Track. It will certainly do better than GST since it's sanctioned by World Athletics but it's not proven like the World Championships or the Olympic Games. Athletes will show up because of the prize money, but it doesn't have the established prestige of the WC or OG.
Hocker has had a historic year. He's now the fifth man in history to win a global title in both the 1500m and 5000m after Nurmi, El G, Lagat, and Jakob. He has historic strength also, running 7:23 for 3K indoors and sub 13 numerous times for 5K.
Meanwhile, Hocker doesn't yet have a WR or WB to his name. He nearly got the short track 3000m WR but was nipped at the line by Fisher. His big rivals; Jakob, Kerr, Fisher, and even Nuguse all have had WRs and/or WBs to their name.
2026 is a unique year where there is no (regular) WC or OG, and GST will also not be coming back. So athletes will therefore be prioritizing record attempts on the Diamond League circuit.
If I were Hocker, I'd be putting all of my energy into going after a WR next year. While Hocker has strength, he won't break the outdoor 3000m, 2 mile, or 5000m world records (and probably wouldn't break the 2000m WR either). He could go after the indoor 3000m or 2 mile records at Millrose next year if he would like, but I could imagine him dropping down to the Wanamaker Mile in 2026. As great as Hocker is, he likes to have a sharp peak and I don't imagine him threatening Jakob's incredible 1500m/mile indoor world records. Also, Hocker's not a front-runner or time trialer; he runs his best performances when drafting behind and out-kicking someone.
As for outdoors, he could go after the 1500m or mile world records. Given that only 4 men in history have broken 3:27 (including one that was a confirmed doper and 2 that were likely dopers - the only one of our era to do it thus far was Jakob), it's a tall order to break 3:26. Since he ran 3:27.65 after 2 rounds in the OG (Jakob was "technically" everyone's pacer in that race), I believe he, when peaked, definitely has the talent to break 3:27, but not sure about 3:26. I'm not even sure Jakob can break 3:26, especially with his recurring achilles injuries.
As crazy as it sounds, I think the most likely outdoor WR for Hocker to break is the mile world record. Yes, he has never been in contention in the Bowerman Mile, always running 3:47-3:48 when the winner was 3:43-3:45. But if someone like Nuguse or Jakob is in the race, with the wavelights set to 3:43.13, and Hocker is in his prime, WC/OG-level form, then he can stick with the "WR-challenger" and outkick them like Noah Ngeny almost did to El G in 1999 (assuming weather conditions are good, of course, and they are on WR pace thru 1500m).
I agree with others on this thread that it might be difficult for Hocker to break any OUTDOOR WRs at the moment ( but he might of course make one more jump forward going into nex year).
INDOORS WRs:
I think that Hocker could have broken both Jakob´s indoor 1500m and mile WR had he attacked these WRs instead of the Millrose 3000m.
Hocker´s 3000m time at 3:29.17 gives significantly higher IAAF ranking points than Jakob´s 2 indoor WRs.
I am not using the INDOOR points because these numbers are completely off. They give too many points for the indoor mile and 2 miles compared to the indoor 1500m and 3000m.
Using the OUTDOOR points Hocker´s 3000m time gives 1282 . Jakob´s indoor 1500m WR gives 1250 points and his mile WR 1265 points. So it is more than reasonable to assume that Hocker would be the indoor 1500m and mile WR holder had he run these distances instead of the 3000m.
Fun fact: Hocker´s 1282 points from the Millrose 3000m equals a mile time just between Jakob´s PB (= 1284) and Nuguse´s PB (= 1280). And 1282 points gives 3:27.37 in the 1500m.
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Hocker´s 1282 points is significantly higher than Kerr´s 1264 points for his indoor 2 miles WR (1264 points equals around 7:26.00 in the 3000m). So Hocker (and Fisher) could easily have taken Kerr´ s 2 miles WR had they run 218,68m longer in their Millrose race.
Neither. As others have said, as Olympic champion he needs to win more races. It's embarrassing he loses as many races as he does. Jakob and Kerr are just as successful at championship racing but they rarely lose races period, championship or otherwise.
Absolutely the 1500m world record, or rather, the mile world record (which I believe Hocker has a better shot of breaking).
The World Athletics Ultimate Championships are a new thing. Basically World Athletics' answer to Grand Slam Track. It will certainly do better than GST since it's sanctioned by World Athletics but it's not proven like the World Championships or the Olympic Games. Athletes will show up because of the prize money, but it doesn't have the established prestige of the WC or OG.
Hocker has had a historic year. He's now the fifth man in history to win a global title in both the 1500m and 5000m after Nurmi, El G, Lagat, and Jakob. He has historic strength also, running 7:23 for 3K indoors and sub 13 numerous times for 5K.
Meanwhile, Hocker doesn't yet have a WR or WB to his name. He nearly got the short track 3000m WR but was nipped at the line by Fisher. His big rivals; Jakob, Kerr, Fisher, and even Nuguse all have had WRs and/or WBs to their name.
2026 is a unique year where there is no (regular) WC or OG, and GST will also not be coming back. So athletes will therefore be prioritizing record attempts on the Diamond League circuit.
If I were Hocker, I'd be putting all of my energy into going after a WR next year. While Hocker has strength, he won't break the outdoor 3000m, 2 mile, or 5000m world records (and probably wouldn't break the 2000m WR either). He could go after the indoor 3000m or 2 mile records at Millrose next year if he would like, but I could imagine him dropping down to the Wanamaker Mile in 2026. As great as Hocker is, he likes to have a sharp peak and I don't imagine him threatening Jakob's incredible 1500m/mile indoor world records. Also, Hocker's not a front-runner or time trialer; he runs his best performances when drafting behind and out-kicking someone.
As for outdoors, he could go after the 1500m or mile world records. Given that only 4 men in history have broken 3:27 (including one that was a confirmed doper and 2 that were likely dopers - the only one of our era to do it thus far was Jakob), it's a tall order to break 3:26. Since he ran 3:27.65 after 2 rounds in the OG (Jakob was "technically" everyone's pacer in that race), I believe he, when peaked, definitely has the talent to break 3:27, but not sure about 3:26. I'm not even sure Jakob can break 3:26, especially with his recurring achilles injuries.
As crazy as it sounds, I think the most likely outdoor WR for Hocker to break is the mile world record. Yes, he has never been in contention in the Bowerman Mile, always running 3:47-3:48 when the winner was 3:43-3:45. But if someone like Nuguse or Jakob is in the race, with the wavelights set to 3:43.13, and Hocker is in his prime, WC/OG-level form, then he can stick with the "WR-challenger" and outkick them like Noah Ngeny almost did to El G in 1999 (assuming weather conditions are good, of course, and they are on WR pace thru 1500m).
I agree with others on this thread that it might be difficult for Hocker to break any OUTDOOR WRs at the moment ( but he might of course make one more jump forward going into nex year).
INDOORS WRs:
I think that Hocker could have broken both Jakob´s indoor 1500m and mile WR had he attacked these WRs instead of the Millrose 3000m.
Hocker´s 3000m time at 3:29.17 gives significantly higher IAAF ranking points than Jakob´s 2 indoor WRs.
I am not using the INDOOR points because these numbers are completely off. They give too many points for the indoor mile and 2 miles compared to the indoor 1500m and 3000m.
Using the OUTDOOR points Hocker´s 3000m time gives 1282 . Jakob´s indoor 1500m WR gives 1250 points and his mile WR 1265 points. So it is more than reasonable to assume that Hocker would be the indoor 1500m and mile WR holder had he run these distances instead of the 3000m.
Fun fact: Hocker´s 1282 points from the Millrose 3000m equals a mile time just between Jakob´s PB (= 1284) and Nuguse´s PB (= 1280). And 1282 points gives 3:27.37 in the 1500m.
--------------------
Hocker´s 1282 points is significantly higher than Kerr´s 1264 points for his indoor 2 miles WR (1264 points equals around 7:26.00 in the 3000m). So Hocker (and Fisher) could easily have taken Kerr´ s 2 miles WR had they run 218,68m longer in their Millrose race.
Correction: Hockers 3000m time at 7:23.17 gives gives significantly higher...than Jakob´s 2 indoor WRs.
Does anyone think Hocker realistically has a shot at 3:25.xx? Seems completely outside the realm of possibility to me. He's a great talent and competitor but he's not El Guerrouj.
He ran 3:27 closing in 39.6. Sure, he had a rabbit the whole way that day in Jakob, but he had so much left at the end that he could've potentially ran 3:26.xx with a faster third lap. Hardly seems impossible that he could get a little bit fitter two years later.
Now it's true that Hocker isn't the type of runner who's going to maximize his performance in a setup where he's the one doing the work after the pacer drops. Any possibility of a world record depends on Jakob getting back to his top form and making these races super fast, and that's a huge question mark right now. But if that happens and we regularly see 3:26/27 paced races on the circuit again, I think there's a fairly good chance somebody runs 3:25 at some point. Between Jakob, Hocker, Laros, and Phanuel Koech, the talent level is there.