Ethan STRAND Progression

That 3:33 in February was en route to a 3:48.3 mile with a fast close.

I think you could argue the big fitness jump happened last summer and fall. He went from 45th at NCAA XC and 80 seconds behind Blanks in 2023, to 8th and 16 seconds behind Blanks in 2024. That huge improvement in strength set him up to make headlines as soon as he got on the track in his 15/3k wheelhouse.

100%

so already 3:31 equivalent in February.

So, you are saying that his super fast progression was not in 1 year(from summer to summer) but in half year(from summer to winter) and it should be less suspicious?

“Strands massive improvement in the 15 isn’t suspicious because he made a massive improvement in the 3k months ago.”

This is completely specious, no? It’d be like trying to explain Hoey’s 3:29 by saying he’s run 1:42. It doesn’t address the core issue.

I’m not saying the kid is doping but I think questioning his progression is more than fair given how dramatic it is.

Truth doesn’t care about your feelings.

I do agree with that, but it is really tricky with college kids. Some go to fast meets and run fast times, and others don’t—or don’t capitalize on it in their one or two opportunities per year. Milt’s talked in the past about not focusing on the times as much at UNC, which pretty famously kept Parker Wolfe from going to Paris last year. Takes them to BU this year, and they both demolish that 3000m. Strand showed a flash at trials last year, but it looked like the rounds (and maybe tactics, haven’t rewatched in a minute) got him in the finals. This year, he’s stronger. Probably legit, if I had to guess, but fair to question.

Can’t be surprised if we learn otherwise, but it’s harder to judge progression with NCAA athletes. Less suspicious to me than someone who’s been pro for a while—even a young one—all of a sudden going 3:29/1:42-low.

It is, but that wasn’t my point. The point was that the “Strand is sus AF” threads/posts came in December. At this point, just like where it got with Brian Komen after a few months the boards didn’t think it was an original thought/worthy of bringing up all the time.

He ran a 3:54(3:36 converted) in February last year and a 3:35 in April of that year. He improved by 5 seconds in a year age 21-22. Not exactly an unbelievable improvement.

The testing numbers are interesting, but they don’t automatically prove anything about any individual athlete. Different countries structure their testing pools differently, and OOC test counts don’t always reflect actual scrutiny. If someone is in the registered pool and gets tested regularly, that’s really all we can go off. Everything else ends up being assumptions and country-vs-country arguing that doesn’t get anyone closer to the truth