Heps XC 2025 Predictions

Woah. Haven't been paying attention this year until now. 23:26 is very very impressive at VCP. Where does this put Hogan nationally individually?

Did they make a wrong turn and cut off a section of the course? That's an insane amount of people under 25, and I would presume some sections would be muddy after yesterday's rains.

Looking at their social media, it doesn't look too bad on the gravel paths... some puddles but nothing too muddy. Who knows in the woods though

https://www.instagram.com/stories/princetontrack/3755648587784113083/

I had been thinking fringe all American, but I think on a great day he could challenge for top 20-25. This was a ridiculous run. He just ran 22:58 on the princeton course, this has to be worth like 22:30 there. Blanks was 22:14 last year

And it still might not ever happen. This was Yale's best shot at a top 3 place for the foreseeable future. Cornell did a nice job of getting 1-5 ready to go.

Dartmouth will get a small infusion next year with Greg McGrath. He’s the second fastest ever at the eastern mass divisional course (14:43.5) with probably two more cracks at it in the coming weeks. Only Burgess (5th today at Heps) has gone faster (14:38.9). Two other guys have broken 15, Stanford’s Paul Bergeron (14:43.8) and Wake Forest’s Aidan Ross (14:47.2). Both ran pretty well at ACCs last year (27th and 15th) but seem to be hurt this year. Tam never ran the course as far as I can tell

7th Heps in a row where Harvard men finish runner up, last 5 and 6 of the 7 were to Princeton. So close every time as well.

Today they were 14 points back, and going from 2024-2018 they were second by 11, 3, 3, 15, 3 and then 31 points. Somehow they haven't won an XC Heps since 1972. Should have a chance over the next few years.

Good news! It looks like they are on a good trajectory. Believe they had three freshman at our under 9:00 in 3200 in last commit class too. The freshman have also run well all season. Very young team.

I should note that some conferences--dunno about Heps--are no longer running the Back Hills or Cemetery. They're essentially taking three laps around the Freshman Loop. Boring, and not much of a test of cross country: Members of those conferences are now focusing on recruiting milers for their cross teams, since VCP is primarily a speed course for them now.

I can understand concerns about busting up runners at the conference meet, but if there are 2-3 weeks between the conference race and Regionals, what's the problem?

Anyway, I still remember the iconic photo (appeared in T&FN?) of Jon Anderson summiting Cemetery on the way to winning Heps, while other runners are still on the Cowpath far in the background. Three laps on the Freshman Loop just doesn't present that kind of drama.

They ran the real course today for Heps: back hills, cemetery hill. Not too muddy despite yesterday.

This one is correct

https://flashresults.com/2026_Meets/xc/ACC/index.htm

Having both the back hills and cemetery is the only real college XC course. Not to take anything away from Hogan - this was an amazing performance, but Vanny is easier than it used to be. They pulled out all of the rocks, roots, etc., ostensibly for safety reasons, and made it easier. Makes one realize just how fast Dave Merrick from Penn ran back in the day.

"not to take anything away" . . . proceeds to take everything away.

Acer Iverson, in the year he won 5 heps titles (5000mi; 3000mi; 5000m; 10000m; XC) ran 23:58 at VCP (backhills + cemetery).

Hogan running 23:26 on the same course is insanely impressive. He absolutely destroyed the field. I would not be surprised if he finishes top 15 at NCAAs.

I think the only context required for Heps XC as a whole is that last year's field was significantly deeper. There were runners with 13:40 5k PRs, 3:37 1500s, etc who were not even second team all-ivy. This year, there was a huge drop off after first-team

Top 15 would be incredible for him. Has another 10k at regionals before NCAA’s but should be an all American this year. I guess he really wanted that individual title and went full out at Heps. He was way out in front like a Blanks type effort in Heps and regionals.

I think you have to look at a guy like Tam to also be a contender for all American.

Regionals are 2 days away. Any predictions on who will make it to Nationals?

I think the Princeton men will get a team berth out of Mid-Atlantic (they're ranked #1 in their region, and Vig is good at prepping the teams for post-conference meets). I'm 60% sure Harvard men will claim an auto team berth (they're #2 in Northeast) but it will depend on how well the team will fare over the 10k vs 8k distance. Yale's Owen Karas could get an individual slot?

I don't see any women teams making it through, but I think there will be some individuals who do (highest odds they will be from Princeton and Harvard I believe).

Any other predictions?

Men's regional rankings:

ustfccca.org

2025 NCAA DI Men’s Cross Country Regional Rankings – Week 5

USTFCCCA Communications

2025 NCAA DI Men’s Cross Country Regional Rankings – Week 5

Open link

Women's regional rankings:

ustfccca.org

2025 NCAA DI Women’s Cross Country Regional Rankings – Week 5

USTFCCCA Communications

2025 NCAA DI Women’s Cross Country Regional Rankings – Week 5

Open link

Actually, it looks like the Harvard men would likely get an at large berth if they finished 3rd in the Northeast, at least per the Kolas calculator link below:

McNatt came close last year, hopefully she’ll get a spot. Princeton women have it rough in the Mid-Atlantic, although they return just about everyone* next year, so maybe they’ll have a better shot then. Similarly, if there were ever a time for Harvard to break their 53-year winless streak, the vast majority* of their team will be back too

*Surely there are others on the rosters, but every single 2025 Heps finisher for the Princeton women and Harvard men should be returning

Harvard's Molly Malague finished 3rd in the Northeast Region, pretty much guaranteeing an individual slot for Nationals. She was less than 2 seconds from the win. I think she'll be the lone Ivy out of Northeast women.

Yale women was the top Ivy team (5th: 11, 26, 27, 44, 45, (70), (95), led by Claire Archer), while Harvard (7th: 3, 15, 34, 37, 90, (131), (138)) and Cornell (9th: 32, 58, 69, 71, 73, (99), (102)) also finished in the top 10 team wise.

I think the Princeton women will get two individuals to Nationals - Meg Madison (8th) and Anna McNatt (12th). Princeton women finish 5th as a team (unofficially 99 pts), and the projections have top 4 teams advancing out of this region.

Penn finished well - they were 6th as a team (unofficially 231pts), led by Sarah Fischer (32nd overall). They were ranked 6th in the region coming into the meet.