The full draft formation was said to help Kipchoge 3-4 minutes which is 6-9 seconds per mile. And Kipyegon will be running even faster so there's proportionally more air resistance to overcome.
Literal Apples to Oranges You are comparing a race where someone had 2 hours to benefit from drafting and a race that is 4 minutes long.
This just reaffirms my belief that the vast majority of "research" done at our Universities (at least in the non-hard sciences) is fake.
These people are not following the scientific method at all. They have a pretermined answer (in this case that a woman can do anything a man can do, of couse), and look for any and all evidence that could possibly support it. This whole response was some back-of-a napkin math with a University seal stamped on it.
Any rational, objective, analysis of the facts would have shown that the chanes of Faith running 3:5X without wheeled shoes or a downhill course are essentially 0 percent. A human being cannot simply run their 1k race pace for another 600 meters, it's not physically possible. However any "study" that came to that obvious conclusion would have never been allowed to see the light of day.
There's an article out on the CU website that makes note of some of Rojo's comments
Some have publicly expressed their doubts (they link to Rojo's article here) that the 31-year-old mother can carve 7.64 seconds off her already lightning-fast mile record set in Monaco in 2023. “She’s not going to break four and it’s not going to be particularly close,” wrote one skeptic. But Kram contends that while others focus on how much energy she must expend, his team’s research emphasizes how much energy she can save by drafting—or using other runners to push the air molecules out of the way, reducing resistance. In the case of Kipyegon running a 4-minute-mile pace alone, just pushing against the air eats up 13% of her energy, according to the team’s calculations. The study forecasts that if she used just two female pacers, which switch out at the half-mile point, Kipyegon could reduce that drag by about 76%, enabling her to run a 3:59:37. A promotional video from Nike suggests that a pack of both male and female elite runners will pace Kipyegon Thursday, with some of the male runners sticking with her the entire mile—which could reduce air resistance even more, Kram said. (He notes that Bannister also used pacers for his historic run). “On Thursday, she will have better than 70% drafting and all of these other contributing factors like the shoes and the clothing,” he said. “I think there is a really good chance that she will break four minutes.”
**** I told Rojo about this on the phone, and he said, “Maybe it’s not crazy,” acknowledging that perfect pacing and drafting might make up a second per lap — and pondered if it could be even two seconds per lap with absolutely ideal conditions.
But then he changed course: “She’s already had a pacer halfway. A 4:07 miler isn’t comparable to a 4:00 miler. Not going to happen.” He also asked, “If drafting is so important, why aren’t they doing a diamond around her?” 📄 CU Boulder article:
Obviously they miscalculated. The idea that in the race pacing could reduce drag by 76% is ridiculous. Rodger Kram's field of study is biomechanics, not aerodynamics, so who persuaded him to believe such nonsense?
There's an article out on the CU website that makes note of some of Rojo's comments
**** I told Rojo about this on the phone, and he said, “Maybe it’s not crazy,” acknowledging that perfect pacing and drafting might make up a second per lap — and pondered if it could be even two seconds per lap with absolutely ideal conditions.
But then he changed course: “She’s already had a pacer halfway. A 4:07 miler isn’t comparable to a 4:00 miler. Not going to happen.” He also asked, “If drafting is so important, why aren’t they doing a diamond around her?” 📄 CU Boulder article:
Obviously they miscalculated. The idea that in the race pacing could reduce drag by 76% is ridiculous. Rodger Kram's field of study is biomechanics, not aerodynamics, so who persuaded him to believe such nonsense?
Yeah, and it didn't look like the pacemakers did a very good job. Faith looked like she was working hard the whole way. I would say that with the size of the gaps between some of them, they may have actually added turbulence right in front of her.
This just reaffirms my belief that the vast majority of "research" done at our Universities (at least in the non-hard sciences) is fake.
These people are not following the scientific method at all. They have a pretermined answer (in this case that a woman can do anything a man can do, of couse), and look for any and all evidence that could possibly support it. This whole response was some back-of-a napkin math with a University seal stamped on it.
Any rational, objective, analysis of the facts would have shown that the chanes of Faith running 3:5X without wheeled shoes or a downhill course are essentially 0 percent. A human being cannot simply run their 1k race pace for another 600 meters, it's not physically possible. However any "study" that came to that obvious conclusion would have never been allowed to see the light of day.
This is a prime example of the fact that limited data within constrained metrics do not always yield predicted results when they are played out in reality. I find that the results of many studies pertaining to athletics fit this problem.
I do think that there is a relatability factor that scientists just generally seem to not have when they consider all the variables for understanding and determining results. There may be some kind of intangible "feel" that the athletes have which the scientists do not which is missing in their calculations. It may be difficult to fully account for this factor in a lab or even purely mathematical framework.