We also will be doing a live watch praty and reaction show starting 5 minutes before the race (so 1:55 pm ET) and then going on for as long as we need to afterwards:
I used to love watching her run, but than had a Lance moment when she demolished WR in 2023. One min after the race ends and she's prancing around as if she just returned from a leisurely Sunday stroll. Meanwhile there is carnage behind her with bodies laying all over the track. NFW.
Thanks for the link. One thing I noticed was that she was never close enough to runners in front of her, to benefit from drafting. She could done just as well just by following the pacing lights.
Haha that's a great point. That would be highly unusual for a sub 4 miler to not be able to run a sub 1.53 - especially as an 8.10-12 3000m runner (which is actually way faster than her actual PR, this is just what I think she can do). For example Sam Ruthe, the young NZ phenom that just broke 4 had PR's of 1.50.57 and 7.56.18. So by this logic even if she was able to run sub 4 with these "advantages" she should be at least able to run under the 800m and 3000m WR's in regular, legit races with that form.
Final thing I've been thinking about are the relevant point scores coming out of this.
On the mens side the WR of 3.43.13 clocks in at 1292 points. The 1500m is slightly better at 1303 and the best MD record is Jakobs 3000m at 1320. FK's current 1500m/mile performances are 1296 and 1287 points. Not quite the same as the mens but that's understandable as the womens events have really been catching up and benefitting from wavelight vs extremely sub-standard pacing for decades.
What is 3.59.99 for a women over a mile? A whopping 1347 points. Even though it would be not official and aided, that is a massive jump. This for me is the most interesting thing though is that the mens equivalent 1500/mile performances would be 3.22.98 and 3.39.10! So in theory if she can do this thanks to drafting, Jakob should be on the phone with Nike SPOMA asking for them to set him up for a sub 3.40 (!!!)
Haha that's a great point. That would be highly unusual for a sub 4 miler to not be able to run a sub 1.53 - especially as an 8.10-12 3000m runner (which is actually way faster than her actual PR, this is just what I think she can do). For example Sam Ruthe, the young NZ phenom that just broke 4 had PR's of 1.50.57 and 7.56.18. So by this logic even if she was able to run sub 4 with these "advantages" she should be at least able to run under the 800m and 3000m WR's in regular, legit races with that form.
Final thing I've been thinking about are the relevant point scores coming out of this.
On the mens side the WR of 3.43.13 clocks in at 1292 points. The 1500m is slightly better at 1303 and the best MD record is Jakobs 3000m at 1320. FK's current 1500m/mile performances are 1296 and 1287 points. Not quite the same as the mens but that's understandable as the womens events have really been catching up and benefitting from wavelight vs extremely sub-standard pacing for decades.
What is 3.59.99 for a women over a mile? A whopping 1347 points. Even though it would be not official and aided, that is a massive jump. This for me is the most interesting thing though is that the mens equivalent 1500/mile performances would be 3.22.98 and 3.39.10! So in theory if she can do this thanks to drafting, Jakob should be on the phone with Nike SPOMA asking for them to set him up for a sub 3.40 (!!!)
I was a 1:52 and 3:50 800/1500m guy and never realistically thought I could make a run at sub 4. Going out in sub 2 for the first half of a mile for me would've been a recipe for a big blowup starting around the 1300m mark. She probably has better endurance than I did but there is some absolutely bonkers roller blades kind of tech she is using if goes under 4.
Is it the same track where the miracle DL race took place? Where Habz, Koech and Mills performed way beyond what was ever expected from them?
I see no comments about weather. The evening looks windy between 7-9pm Paris time, is the stadium sheltered enough? I guess it will play a part.
There is nothing crazy about the track surface itself - but the dimensions help...
It was renovated for the 2020 Euro's with Mondo Sportflex Super X 720 - same surface Rome has. It's actually not even what Mondo claim to be their highest performing surface (WS).
But one reason the stadium does see good distance running performances in particular are the slightly "softer" radii on the bends. The track has slighter longer turns and slightly shorter straights than the "standard" 84.4m. Not all tracks have to be built to the default WA specs - for example Stockholm has a turn radius of about 34.5 meters when the standard is 36.50. Stade Charlety is about 38.0 meters. It doesn't sound like much but it's about 7.5 meters less curve running total per lap.
Is it the same track where the miracle DL race took place? Where Habz, Koech and Mills performed way beyond what was ever expected from them?
I see no comments about weather. The evening looks windy between 7-9pm Paris time, is the stadium sheltered enough? I guess it will play a part.
There is nothing crazy about the track surface itself - but the dimensions help...
It was renovated for the 2020 Euro's with Mondo Sportflex Super X 720 - same surface Rome has. It's actually not even what Mondo claim to be their highest performing surface (WS).
But one reason the stadium does see good distance running performances in particular are the slightly "softer" radii on the bends. The track has slighter longer turns and slightly shorter straights than the "standard" 84.4m. Not all tracks have to be built to the default WA specs - for example Stockholm has a turn radius of about 34.5 meters when the standard is 36.50. Stade Charlety is about 38.0 meters. It doesn't sound like much but it's about 7.5 meters less curve running total per lap.
The stadium is also relatively wind sheltered on all sides, but the current wind forecast (10-12 mph) is still a concern. They might push to Friday when temps should be similar but less wind.
Really what they should have done is find a stadium that gets a swirling counter-clockwise wind when the breeze is from a specific direction and then wait for that. No drafting needed!
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Haha that's a great point. That would be highly unusual for a sub 4 miler to not be able to run a sub 1.53 - especially as an 8.10-12 3000m runner (which is actually way faster than her actual PR, this is just what I think she can do). For example Sam Ruthe, the young NZ phenom that just broke 4 had PR's of 1.50.57 and 7.56.18. So by this logic even if she was able to run sub 4 with these "advantages" she should be at least able to run under the 800m and 3000m WR's in regular, legit races with that form.
Final thing I've been thinking about are the relevant point scores coming out of this.
On the mens side the WR of 3.43.13 clocks in at 1292 points. The 1500m is slightly better at 1303 and the best MD record is Jakobs 3000m at 1320. FK's current 1500m/mile performances are 1296 and 1287 points. Not quite the same as the mens but that's understandable as the womens events have really been catching up and benefitting from wavelight vs extremely sub-standard pacing for decades.
What is 3.59.99 for a women over a mile? A whopping 1347 points. Even though it would be not official and aided, that is a massive jump. This for me is the most interesting thing though is that the mens equivalent 1500/mile performances would be 3.22.98 and 3.39.10! So in theory if she can do this thanks to drafting, Jakob should be on the phone with Nike SPOMA asking for them to set him up for a sub 3.40 (!!!)
Ain't gonna happen.
If she goes for sub-4 she'll blow up and run 4:06-4:08.
She could have a crack at 4:04 which might be achievable with slower splits.
But she's going to try anyway so fair play in that regard.
For now. If she manages to go under 4:00, it will be EVERYWHERE that feminism / female empowerment is spread.
Ironically, one of the things that bothers me most about the hype for this is this quote from Faith.
"And what a man can do, a woman can do.”
No. Can we please stop acting like women will ever be equal to men in elite sports? It's not happening.
Thank God, it's not the reverse of the quote.
"And what a woman can do, a man can do."
As the #1 feminist at LRC, I hope everyone realizes how crazy that sounds. A man will NEVER give birth. Women are amazing. They create life. We aren't the same.
I just thought about this which I don’t think has been mentioned yet.
If she is going to run even remotely close to those splits and do this, she has to have run a 1200m TT in 2.57/2.58 in training. I mean almost every miler in history does a 1200m time trial right at race pace or a little bit faster as part of their preparations to run a mile. In her case it would be absolutely suicidal for her not to have done this and get an idea of what to expect given how far away she is from doing this, no? And if she did do this, it’s likely she broke the world 1000m record unofficially en route.
There has to be some Nike guys floating around who know what she’s been doing in training - even though I know they would have been sworn to secrecy, nothing is ever really a secret. Right?
Your idea is interesting - a 1k WR in practice - as I often had my guys at Cornell run 1200s, but Faith is training at altitude so the paces would be slower.
Kickers usually win wroteAs is common on LR, you’re ignoring 1500m conversions. Dibaba’s 3:50.7 1500m PR, converts to a mile time only one second slower than Kipyegon’s WR.
I love 1500 "conversions" including the legendary ~3.24. But even with his most creative analysis vento^ would find this goal impossible to support. And if not vento^ then who?
Sub 4:04 would be over the odds from my pov. Heres my expert read based on years of studying vento^ s logic.
90 percent likelihood of 4:05 point.
15 percent likelihood of a sub 4:03
Vanishingly small likelihood of sub 4:02.
All of the above assumes she goes out rationally and evenly at 2:00-2:02.
If she really does go out in 1:58 then she will make it to 1100-1200 in new WR.tine as others have said....but then shes gonna blow up bigtime and struggle to break 4:10.
10% of people think she’s gonna break 4? That’s ludicrous. Any of those people who think she’s getting under, please bet with me.
I have much publicly said there is no chance this is going to happen. When I coached the dat college the difference between 407 and 400 was VAST. From not scoring, hell maybe not even making our conference squad to contending for the win.
Today, after reading the Outside magazine article on a bizarre possible drafting formations, with 11 pacers I did think "Ok, if it happens, then that is why." I mean I have about 3 mantras I repeat about track and field and one of them is "Physics is real and doesn't lie)
2 additionally seconds for having rabbits the whole way (she had it halfway in her WR, 1 second per lap is pretty standard) 1 additional second because she wasn't right on the rabbit in her WR. 4 additional seconds for having 11 rabbits versus 1.
I'm surprised they aren't having rabbits run inside the rail. Why aren't they doing it? Why wouldn't they want any wind from the inside blocked. Blows my mind actually. Is their some scientific reason you wouldn't want even more rabbits and have them inside as well?
5 minutes before Faith goes for history and tries to break 4 in the mile, we'll come on to give you our thoughts. You can watch us react live to the race and...
