The same strategy that was his best chance to win in Paris.
At some in the race between 1000 and 900 meters out he needs to turn the pace up as close to his threshold as possible and maintain that to the finish. He's the guy with the best threshold at that speed and the most strength.
In all these championship finals he's now lost over the distance the one common theme is that at some point in the final 1000m he backed off/was forced to back off that pace and it allowed the guys with better anaerobic power than him (Wightman, Kerr, Hocker) all were able to recover just enough in-race and then roll him at the finish. Paris in particular he covertly hurt himself so much in that opening 200/400 that even Nuguse was able to comfortably pass him in that final 80m and he's rarely looked so fatigued up the home straight as he was that day. I think that maintaining 55.5-56.0 pace right from the gun for all 1500m is just too difficult for him without wavelight and pace help. I've seen enough of these finals now to be quite confident in saying that's beyond even his incredible ability.
I think he needs to be able to run 2.18.0 for the final 1000m off something like a 72 second opening 500m (57.5/14.5). Run that final 1000m in 56.0, 55.0, 27.0 - in that ballpark. Winning time in the low 3.30's.
Yes. Originally, I was convinced that he could win "easily" by running like his time trial in Monaco (56 - 55.4 - 55.2 - 40 high) and he would win that way. The guys behind him can't muster a fast enough final 300m if they have to run the middle 800 in 1:50. However, after that Habz 3:27, I'm not even convinced this would work either. He has to employ a strategy that allows his final 100m to be in the low 13's with a fast final K and just hope nobody has enough power to challenge him on the bend. Seems unlikely he'll ever win again though. If he doesn't win this year, he should look into the 10000m and atleast complete a double there + 5000m.
He’ll always be better at 1500m than the 10000m, and will never swap them out in a WC or Olympics.
tbh, not much he can do. I used to think he could squeeze it from 800m out ala el g in Athens, but I think the ship might have sailed.
If he relies on his tactical chop like one poster said, I believe he would die a painful death. The tacitical affair in a 5k is vastly different from the 1500. In the 1500m, positioning and timing are so much tighter and Jakob's inexperience in it would just do him in and I honestly don't think he has the best kick in the field. His kick is world class, but that's not enough to be reliable in a championship final.
I also saw someone say that Jakob beat Habz at Euros, so Habz wouldn't be a threat. I'm not sure I buy that. Jakob is a anomaly, in that he's in top shape (or close to it) almost year round, while the other guys tend to peak for very few races. Like Hocker, Jakob pretty much owned him throughout the season last year, but in the Olympic, Hocker showed who's the boss.(though after that Jakob kept owning him)
On a side note, Habz seems to have only trained seriously for the past 6 or so years. in 2019 he barely broke 1:50 for the 800m(and he dipped into 1:43 four years later!). He may not be a lad biologically, but his "training age" is still young, actually much younger than Jakob. So putting all together, I think his progression actually makes sense. It isn't like he's Mo Farah who had trained for a decade, and suddenly became a world beater from age 28-34. And I believe he will be a great threat in Tokyo as well.
If I have to guess the odds would go like this: Hocker (25%), Kerr (25%), Nuguse (15%) Habz (10%), Koech (10%), Jakob (5%), the rest of the field (10%)
If I have to guess the odds would go like this: Hocker (25%), Kerr (25%), Nuguse (15%) Habz (10%), Koech (10%), Jakob (5%), the rest of the field (10%)
btw, Koech might become the prohibitive favourite, if he shows that he's the Wanyonyi of 1500 in the upcoming months. (and Wanyonyi is already a great 1500m runner himself!) After all, they're training partners, and we all know who Wanyonyi is.
If I have to guess the odds would go like this: Hocker (25%), Kerr (25%), Nuguse (15%) Habz (10%), Koech (10%), Jakob (5%), the rest of the field (10%)
btw, Koech might become the prohibitive favourite, if he shows that he's the Wanyonyi of 1500 in the upcoming months. (and Wanyonyi is already a great 1500m runner himself!) After all, they're training partners, and we all know who Wanyonyi is.
For all we know he might have already peaked for the season and it doesn’t matter who he trains with.
btw, Koech might become the prohibitive favourite, if he shows that he's the Wanyonyi of 1500 in the upcoming months. (and Wanyonyi is already a great 1500m runner himself!) After all, they're training partners, and we all know who Wanyonyi is.
For all we know he might have already peaked for the season and it doesn’t matter who he trains with.
if he's like his partner, probably not. As Wanyonyi was pretty much on an upward trajectory the whole season last year and Koech is even younger and has a shorter training history. Anyway, his next two races would be very telling, we shall see.
If I have to guess the odds would go like this: Hocker (25%), Kerr (25%), Nuguse (15%) Habz (10%), Koech (10%), Jakob (5%), the rest of the field (10%)
btw, Koech might become the prohibitive favourite, if he shows that he's the Wanyonyi of 1500 in the upcoming months. (and Wanyonyi is already a great 1500m runner himself!) After all, they're training partners, and we all know who Wanyonyi is.
if he's like his partner, probably not. As Wanyonyi was pretty much on an upward trajectory the whole season last year and Koech is even younger and has a shorter training history. Anyway, his next two races would be very telling, we shall see.
Ostrava Golden Spike vs Myers, Nordas and Nader I think. Pretty nice spot. Probably will be more like a 3:29-30 race.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
Yes. Originally, I was convinced that he could win "easily" by running like his time trial in Monaco (56 - 55.4 - 55.2 - 40 high) and he would win that way. The guys behind him can't muster a fast enough final 300m if they have to run the middle 800 in 1:50. However, after that Habz 3:27, I'm not even convinced this would work either. He has to employ a strategy that allows his final 100m to be in the low 13's with a fast final K and just hope nobody has enough power to challenge him on the bend. Seems unlikely he'll ever win again though. If he doesn't win this year, he should look into the 10000m and atleast complete a double there + 5000m.
Yeah right now I'm still confident he is going to be in Tokyo and is going to be racing the 1500, but it is starting to feel a little El G '04/Morceli '96'ish in that this could be the window closing for him in terms of championship 1500m running. Some people might say "but he's only 25" (he turns 25 before the end of these champs) and "Kerr is 27 and still in form" but the reality is Jakob has just done much more competing at an elite level over the last 3-4 seasons (apart from this one because of injury) and unlike Kerr who looks set to be a 1500m specialist until he retires, Jakob by his own admission and actions has even more ambitions over the 5000m and maybe above. I think his body is also starting to show signs of how much stress he puts it under (b2b achilles injuries last two season that are increasing in seriousness) - that also sucks when you think about his 1500/mile WR aspirations too.
Regarding his odds to win, the same can be said about everyone competing in the 1500m, including his biggest rivals. It is a very hard event dominate. Those other guys aren't only chasing Jakob, they now have to negotiate Habz, Koech, Myers and the rest of them. Based on what I have seen from him this year, Hocker's chances of winning gold are just as good (or as slim) as someone like Habz.
Maybe that suits Jakob? A bit of chaos doesn't bother him.
At some point in the next 1-2 months, Jakob is going to come out and really test himself in the 1500m and/or mile. And by test I mean WR attempt on the down low. He knows his window is short. We'll have some answers then.
I also saw someone say that Jakob beat Habz at Euros, so Habz wouldn't be a threat. I'm not sure I buy that. Jakob is a anomaly, in that he's in top shape (or close to it) almost year round, while the other guys tend to peak for very few races. Like Hocker, Jakob pretty much owned him throughout the season last year, but in the Olympic, Hocker showed who's the boss.(though after that Jakob kept owning him)
But that's precisely the point...Jakob is likely to be in very good shape come WC, as he always is, but not everyone will hold or time their peak (or injuries) to perfection. This increases his odds of being very competitive against the field. However, there will be some that do time things well of course, as we saw last year at the Olympics.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
He won't win, all of his rivals are doping now except Kerr.
I actually think if he can get healthy this might be his year. Habz or another top runner taking it out fast could help him a ton, and hammer it home the last 800. The tough question is there will be 6+ guys that can run sub 3:28. If he doesn’t have to lead the first 2 laps at a really fast pace he could be in a good setting
Yeah right now I'm still confident he is going to be in Tokyo and is going to be racing the 1500, but it is starting to feel a little El G '04/Morceli '96'ish in that this could be the window closing for him in terms of championship 1500m running. Some people might say "but he's only 25" (he turns 25 before the end of these champs) and "Kerr is 27 and still in form" but the reality is Jakob has just done much more competing at an elite level over the last 3-4 seasons (apart from this one because of injury) and unlike Kerr who looks set to be a 1500m specialist until he retires, Jakob by his own admission and actions has even more ambitions over the 5000m and maybe above. I think his body is also starting to show signs of how much stress he puts it under (b2b achilles injuries last two season that are increasing in seriousness) - that also sucks when you think about his 1500/mile WR aspirations too.
Regarding his odds to win, the same can be said about everyone competing in the 1500m, including his biggest rivals. It is a very hard event dominate. Those other guys aren't only chasing Jakob, they now have to negotiate Habz, Koech, Myers and the rest of them. Based on what I have seen from him this year, Hocker's chances of winning gold are just as good (or as slim) as someone like Habz.
Maybe that suits Jakob? A bit of chaos doesn't bother him.
At some point in the next 1-2 months, Jakob is going to come out and really test himself in the 1500m and/or mile. And by test I mean WR attempt on the down low. He knows his window is short. We'll have some answers then.
He’ll probably need to be close to 3:25xx to have enough of a buffer to gap the kickers at Tokyo.
I actually think if he can get healthy this might be his year. Habz or another top runner taking it out fast could help him a ton, and hammer it home the last 800. The tough question is there will be 6+ guys that can run sub 3:28. If he doesn’t have to lead the first 2 laps at a really fast pace he could be in a good setting
But no one besides possibly Ingebrigtsen will take it out fast. They all saw what happened to Jakob last year and do not want to risk being swept out of the medals.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
He will win this year. This upcoming race will be the race of his life. One final shot to prove he is the best. In the stadium where he first won his gold, and where he will win his last. He won’t take any chances.
Logic says he needs to front run, but he's now been outkicked by Wightman, Kerr and Hocker at world finals. Tbh, i really don't know what I'd tell him if I was coaching him.
I actually think if he can get healthy this might be his year. Habz or another top runner taking it out fast could help him a ton, and hammer it home the last 800. The tough question is there will be 6+ guys that can run sub 3:28. If he doesn’t have to lead the first 2 laps at a really fast pace he could be in a good setting
Why would they do that? They're smarter than Jakob.
I actually think if he can get healthy this might be his year. Habz or another top runner taking it out fast could help him a ton, and hammer it home the last 800. The tough question is there will be 6+ guys that can run sub 3:28. If he doesn’t have to lead the first 2 laps at a really fast pace he could be in a good setting
It is going to be an amazing race stacked with 3:27 and 3:28 guys. It could take a 3:29 just to make the final.
Here is the key point: there will be a couple 800/1500 guys like Habz in the final--guys who have run 1:43 in the 800. Guys who can leave Kerr, Nuguse, and Hocker in the dust the final 100 meters if the pace is slow.
Given that, there will be many runners in the race, not just Jakob, who would benefit from an honest pace: Mills, Laros, Nillessen, Kipsang, Kerr, Nuguse, Hocker.
If they let the pace dawdle, they could lose not only to Habz, but also to Kessler or Jonah Koech or Lagat.
Phanuel Koech is a wildcard. We have no idea what his top-end speed is like, but he has run 3:27 and clearly is a threat in any kind of race.
There will be a dense pack; those running inside the pack will be pushed and jostled. Those running to the outside of the pack will have to cover extra distance. In such a race, I think there is a good argument for running in either last place or first place, where there is little or no jostling. Or you can run inside the pack and hope lane 1 opens up on the home straight.
It would not surprise me at all to see someone other than Jakob run to the front and push the pace. Probably either Phanuel Koech or George Mills.
If his 1:46.6 is legit indication of his leg speed, or close to it, he has zero chance of winning with a sit and kick. He can’t learn to trust something that doesn’t exist.
There's nothing he can do. It's a crapshoot but Yared will win.
Correct. If he hadn't had the injury this season, I would be reluctant to count him out. As of right now he still technically has the fastest PR in the world, and so at full fitness could on a great day for him in Tokyo possibly pull from everyone. It would still be difficult but not impossible.
However at this point he will have too much catching up to do and there's a slew of guys who will have an edge on him. Yared stands a good chance to win because he is really consistent and is now a 1:44 800 guy. He could easily be 1:43 at the end of the season. He stands the best chance to equal or even surpass Jacob's 1500 pb. Yared can win in a kick for a long drive home.