You think he couldn't find 9 seconds from indoor to outdoor, assuming pacers and wavelight? Only limiting factor is his recent injury.
I think there's a number of guys all over the world that could take it down this year. Fisher should absolutely be included on that list.
Finding the 9 seconds from 12:44 to 12:35 is massive. It’s not like this is the 70s and Fisher ran 12:44 on a knotty 11 laps to the mile indoor track, or he’s a HS sophomore who’s assumed to improve between February and June.
Chances are he never runs under 12:40, though I wouldn’t rule out 12:39 in a near-perfect scenario.
Actually you’re right, I should not have said that 12:30 is definitely better than 7:17. Looks like World Athletics puts 7:17.55 as equal to 12:30.68. Of course, those points values are fluid and inexact, and there’s the question of whether Jakob is as amazing in a 5k time trial as a 3k time trial, but the times are in the same ballpark.
I never thought that 7:20.67 was the strongest WR, and argued many times that quite a few guys were capable of 7:20-7:23. Certainly now in the super shoe era, 7:20.67 has been brought down to earth not only by Jakob’s 7:17.55 but Aregawi 7:21, Fisher 7:22, Hocker 7:23, Girma 7:23, Kejelcha 7:23 in a race that came down to a (54) last lap kick…
Posters saying that he can split 7:35 at 3k and run the last 2k in 4:55-4:57 could be right, but we need to appreciate how hard that is. That’s still 3k on 12:39 pace and then 2k at ~7:23 3k pace…I’m not sure Jakob can do that. Running 12:30.5 is 2:30.1/K, which is 4.25 seconds slower than his 2:25.85/K pace in the 7:17.55, which is a fairly tight margin for someone who might be better at 2k/3k than 5k; it’s like a 7:30.0 guy running 12:50.75, or a 7:24.0 guy running 12:40.75, or a 7:36.0 guy running 13:00.75–possible for long distance oriented guys, but not a given!
All I’m arguing really is that Jakob running 12:30 for 5k is more than “just a question of when.” It’s still an incredible time, and if Jakob is capable of it a lot of things have to go right for him; we shouldn’t take it for granted.
Bekele's 12:37 has also been brought down to earth by Cheptegei's 12:35, Gebriwhet's 12:36, Kejelcha's 12:38, Aregawi's 12:40, Kiplimo's 12:40, Telahun Bekele's 12:42 Grant fishers likely sub 12:40 incoming........It's not just the 3000m.
Jakob broke 7:20 by an even bigger margin than Cheptegei breaking 12:37, in a shorter but similar distance. That extrapolates quite well to a big PB in the 5000m.
"Kejelcha 7:23 in a race that came down to a (54) last lap kick..." and who won that race while pushing significantly from the front..?
I'll concede that it is more than just a question of when, but consider this: Jakob said earlier in the year in an interview or a video that he thinks the 5000m WR is easy for him to take. I think either somebody said that he had that view or Ingebrigtsen said it himself. Take with that what you will. I'll try to find that quote.
Even if you just look at Komen's 7:20/12:39. When Jakob ran 7:17, even if you just take Komen's percentage from 3k to 5k Jakob should break 12:35, quite convincingly. But we will see.
Late to the party but I disagree. Jakob ran 7:17.55 on a hot and humid day and it was also windy. He probably could have ran 7:15.xx that day had conditions been better.
People like to say that but it was about 80 degrees when the race was run with slight humidity and it was run in the shade. If you check the wind readings for the sprints in that meet, you’ll see the wind was minimal. If you look at a picture of the stadium you will see why.
Even if you just look at Komen's 7:20/12:39. When Jakob ran 7:17, even if you just take Komen's percentage from 3k to 5k Jakob should break 12:35, quite convincingly. But we will see.
Late to the party but I disagree. Jakob ran 7:17.55 on a hot and humid day and it was also windy. He probably could have ran 7:15.xx that day had conditions been better.
People like to say that but it was about 80 degrees when the race was run with slight humidity and it was run in the shade. If you check the wind readings for the sprints in that meet, you’ll see the wind was minimal. If you look at a picture of the stadium you will see why.
TL;DR Chep is a generational talent @ 5000/10000, Kejelcha, Aregawi and Hagos are "just" insanely good.
yomif kejelcha: 6'1 and 128lb; world youth champion, world junior champion, 2 x senior world champion; twice as many diamond league wins as cheptegei; held the wr at indoor mile and half marathon; 3:47/7:23/12:38/26:31/57:30.
poor tactics/performances on the biggest stage a few times and hasn't got the big sexy world records his talent deserves but he's every bit as talented as cheptegei and more and he's only 27. wouldn't be surprised by anything from yomif if things come together from him.
Fair point.
I think, and Worldathletics says so, that Chep has many more accolades than Kejelcha even excluding the Olympics but I have no reason to doubt you and actually it doesn't matter, Kejelcha is beyond amazing.
Sure, Chep's 3000 WR attempt went bad (the 3000 split for his 12:35:36 was actually faster) and he has never ran a half at his full potential, which is a shame. Still, most likely Kejelcha has the much better range and he could have a case for being a better overall runner.
What I meant is that, strictly @ 5000/10000, Chep is a generational talent and Kejelcha is extremely good.
When Chep got the WR, I become obsessed with all the info I could gather because I thought his team was delusional and he would not even get close. Remember: 12:37 seemed untouchable back then. In fact, only Barega approached it a bit under SIX SECONDS since like forever. Beating Bekele's WR, wavelights, superspikes and whatever, was huge.
Info is there. His trainer said he spent a training block of 7-8 full months after running a 26:38 road 10k in December of 2019, so he was already damn sharp. His 5000 WR was the next August. He said that reaching that level of fitness, because of diminishing returns and the linear need to increase intensity and volume, puts an athlete dangerously close to the flame. In fact, he got injured shortly after doing one of many Uganda doing Uganda stupid stuff like running a HM just a week after setting the 10000 WR.
JI aside, could someone in the current generation beat 12:35:36 IN A RACE? I think so, a 30 yo Hagos was just a second and a half shy. Again, that was the best 5000 race ever so it's pretty unlikely, but the potential is obviously there.
But this is a WR attempt. Like Chep's was. Even knowing the history of the Ethiopian federation, claiming a WR attempt and having two athletes going at it without clear instructions of who's the one chasing it is borderline cruel for two countrymen.
Apparently, there will be pacemaking until 3500. Chep had 500 meters less. Still, soloing about 4 laps is a total different beast than racing them til the tape. That produced Hagos and Kejelcha scaring the WR. No one announced a WR attempt, "just" probably the best field ever assembled with two dudes in peak fitness feeling good that given day and grinding for the win because both felt they could beat each other.
And yet, they came short. Doing that in a TT context demands a whole upper level of fitness.
Now that he has left the track, again, Chep's trainer has said that he's never been been close to his WR fitness since then. And the dude clocked a 12:40 high IIRC losing to Aregawi in the stretch.
yomif kejelcha: 6'1 and 128lb; world youth champion, world junior champion, 2 x senior world champion; twice as many diamond league wins as cheptegei; held the wr at indoor mile and half marathon; 3:47/7:23/12:38/26:31/57:30.
poor tactics/performances on the biggest stage a few times and hasn't got the big sexy world records his talent deserves but he's every bit as talented as cheptegei and more and he's only 27. wouldn't be surprised by anything from yomif if things come together from him.
Fair point.
I think, and Worldathletics says so, that Chep has many more accolades than Kejelcha even excluding the Olympics but I have no reason to doubt you and actually it doesn't matter, Kejelcha is beyond amazing.
Sure, Chep's 3000 WR attempt went bad (the 3000 split for his 12:35:36 was actually faster) and he has never ran a half at his full potential, which is a shame. Still, most likely Kejelcha has the much better range and he could have a case for being a better overall runner.
What I meant is that, strictly @ 5000/10000, Chep is a generational talent and Kejelcha is extremely good.
When Chep got the WR, I become obsessed with all the info I could gather because I thought his team was delusional and he would not even get close. Remember: 12:37 seemed untouchable back then. In fact, only Barega approached it a bit under SIX SECONDS since like forever. Beating Bekele's WR, wavelights, superspikes and whatever, was huge.
Info is there. His trainer said he spent a training block of 7-8 full months after running a 26:38 road 10k in December of 2019, so he was already damn sharp. His 5000 WR was the next August. He said that reaching that level of fitness, because of diminishing returns and the linear need to increase intensity and volume, puts an athlete dangerously close to the flame. In fact, he got injured shortly after doing one of many Uganda doing Uganda stupid stuff like running a HM just a week after setting the 10000 WR.
JI aside, could someone in the current generation beat 12:35:36 IN A RACE? I think so, a 30 yo Hagos was just a second and a half shy. Again, that was the best 5000 race ever so it's pretty unlikely, but the potential is obviously there.
But this is a WR attempt. Like Chep's was. Even knowing the history of the Ethiopian federation, claiming a WR attempt and having two athletes going at it without clear instructions of who's the one chasing it is borderline cruel for two countrymen.
Apparently, there will be pacemaking until 3500. Chep had 500 meters less. Still, soloing about 4 laps is a total different beast than racing them til the tape. That produced Hagos and Kejelcha scaring the WR. No one announced a WR attempt, "just" probably the best field ever assembled with two dudes in peak fitness feeling good that given day and grinding for the win because both felt they could beat each other.
And yet, they came short. Doing that in a TT context demands a whole upper level of fitness.
Now that he has left the track, again, Chep's trainer has said that he's never been been close to his WR fitness since then. And the dude clocked a 12:40 high IIRC losing to Aregawi in the stretch.
12:35:36 in a TT setting is a different animal.
Didn’t cheptegei say he was in WR shape after the 2024 Olympics during the interview? Maybe not 26:11 but he was darn fit.
I think Cheptegei could have ran 12:30-12:32 had Monaco not been so darn hot and humid. Even before the race, his coach and him thought he was in 12:30 shape (Ruiter). If Jakob is in 7:17 shape and runs the 5000, he can split 7:35 and run the last 5 laps in 4:55-4:57, IMO.
Unless his coach has contradicted himself (and he could), in an interview few days after the race he said that, yes, a bit cooler and drier conditions would've been nice, but in an effort sustained for 12 minutes and change and coming from UGANDA (even the hilly region, it's a tropical country) they weren't a big deal.
I'm from Barcelona so sorry for the Celsius, but 26º and 76% humidity seems... alright.
But, yeah, I remember this forum massively taking for granted he could and would run 12:30 someday.
Truth is: 12:35:36 means 60.4 seconds per lap. His last two laps (the fastest, obviously) were almost exactly 60" and closing in 59:6X
That's what he had left. Sure, if Bekele's WR was 12:35:36 he'd have found some tenths, but the splits doesn't suggest he was capable of a... let's say, 12:34:9x
Actually you’re right, I should not have said that 12:30 is definitely better than 7:17. Looks like World Athletics puts 7:17.55 as equal to 12:30.68. Of course, those points values are fluid and inexact, and there’s the question of whether Jakob is as amazing in a 5k time trial as a 3k time trial, but the times are in the same ballpark.
I never thought that 7:20.67 was the strongest WR, and argued many times that quite a few guys were capable of 7:20-7:23. Certainly now in the super shoe era, 7:20.67 has been brought down to earth not only by Jakob’s 7:17.55 but Aregawi 7:21, Fisher 7:22, Hocker 7:23, Girma 7:23, Kejelcha 7:23 in a race that came down to a (54) last lap kick…
Posters saying that he can split 7:35 at 3k and run the last 2k in 4:55-4:57 could be right, but we need to appreciate how hard that is. That’s still 3k on 12:39 pace and then 2k at ~7:23 3k pace…I’m not sure Jakob can do that. Running 12:30.5 is 2:30.1/K, which is 4.25 seconds slower than his 2:25.85/K pace in the 7:17.55, which is a fairly tight margin for someone who might be better at 2k/3k than 5k; it’s like a 7:30.0 guy running 12:50.75, or a 7:24.0 guy running 12:40.75, or a 7:36.0 guy running 13:00.75–possible for long distance oriented guys, but not a given!
All I’m arguing really is that Jakob running 12:30 for 5k is more than “just a question of when.” It’s still an incredible time, and if Jakob is capable of it a lot of things have to go right for him; we shouldn’t take it for granted.
Bekele's 12:37 has also been brought down to earth by Cheptegei's 12:35, Gebriwhet's 12:36, Kejelcha's 12:38, Aregawi's 12:40, Kiplimo's 12:40, Telahun Bekele's 12:42 Grant fishers likely sub 12:40 incoming........It's not just the 3000m.
Jakob broke 7:20 by an even bigger margin than Cheptegei breaking 12:37, in a shorter but similar distance. That extrapolates quite well to a big PB in the 5000m.
"Kejelcha 7:23 in a race that came down to a (54) last lap kick..." and who won that race while pushing significantly from the front..?
I'll concede that it is more than just a question of when, but consider this: Jakob said earlier in the year in an interview or a video that he thinks the 5000m WR is easy for him to take. I think either somebody said that he had that view or Ingebrigtsen said it himself. Take with that what you will. I'll try to find that quote.
Bekeles 1237 is worth what today????
I had Bekele capable of the 3 x 4min mile back in the day, with those shoes and tracks, though the tracks were still pretty good.
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Jacob will get it even if he has to beat a 12:34-35 run before h
I think that JI can break the record but is not at 12:30 right now.
At least as important for a comment is that this is a really good thread, and I appreciate being able to read people's opinions and why they think them. This is why I come here
I think that JI can break the record but is not at 12:30 right now.
At least as important for a comment is that this is a really good thread, and I appreciate being able to read people's opinions and why they think them. This is why I come here
Agreed, reading everyone's analysis has been enjoyable.
It's funny that Jakob dominates the conversation about a race he isn't even participating in. Says a lot about his impact on the sport.
Anyway, I will be watching both Oslo and Stockholm 5000m with interest. A lot to be learned going into the rest of the season, and which new challengers will emerge. How do the Americans shape up against the Africans in Oslo? And fascinated by Almgren and Hocker in Stockholm.
Agreed, reading everyone's analysis has been enjoyable.
It's funny that Jakob dominates the conversation about a race he isn't even participating in. Says a lot about his impact on the sport.
Anyway, I will be watching both Oslo and Stockholm 5000m with interest. A lot to be learned going into the rest of the season, and which new challengers will emerge. How do the Americans shape up against the Africans in Oslo? And fascinated by Almgren and Hocker in Stockholm.
JI deserves the attention, but actually -not that it was intentional beforehand- writing my OP I found myself trying to make a point about how incredible is to clock 12:35:36 running MORE THAN HALF OF THE DISTANCE BY HIMSELF* and actually picking the pace from there, as his fastest 6 laps were the ones without a rabbit.
*I got it wrong, I thought pacemaking left at 3000. Joshua was leading exactly at 6:05.
And how underrated this performance, that set this forum on fire, has become after some 12:41-40s (that are indeed beyond impressive) in RACES to the final stretch and not TT settings.
The WR is indeed a stretch, but most of you are sleeping a bit on this race. I think we will see 1-3 runners under 12:40. This race includes two guys who ran under 12:40 in Oslo last year: Yomif Kejelcha (12:39) and Hagos Gebrhiwet (12:36). Gebrhiwet looked pretty bad at Grand Prix in Kingston, Jamaica,, but that was more than two months ago. A lot can change in two months.
Then there are the three Ethiopian teenagers: - Kuma Girma went toe to toe with Aregawi in China a month ago. - Mezgebu Sime was less than 1 second behind Girma and Aregwai. - Biniam Mehary ran 12:54 last year as a 17-year old(!).
Remember when Selemon Barega broke through with a 12:43.02 performance way back in 2018 when he was 18 years old? This was before super shoes and wavelight were available. That time would be worth at least a 12:37 today.
The weather in Oslo will be perfect. Kejelcha is likely to push the pace after the rabbit drops out. There will be wavelights. Everything is perfect for a fast race. It would not surprise me to see one or more of the Ethiopian teenagers turn in a Barega-like performance (high 12:30s).
What I meant is that, strictly @ 5000/10000, Chep is a generational talent and Kejelcha is extremely good.
i think you are looking at "talent" differently to how most people would. cheptegei is the champion 5/10k man of his generation, that's for sure. but that doesn't mean he's necessarily his generation's top talent. i mean, was mo farah more physically gifted than, say, gebremeskel? i don't think that's clear at all; he was a better racer, and better prepared, and had more luck.
for me, kenenisa bekele's peak is the only time in the last 50 years where the top 5/10k man has been on an another level entirely to the rest of the world (but even that is an unscientific assertion based on vibes and aesthetics really). aouita, geb, farah, ingebrigtsen; everyone has had plausible rivals and/or chinks in their armour.
anyway, if i had to bet on anyone other than ingebrigtsen to be the 5000 wr holder at the end of the decade it would be kejelcha. but i might be completely wrong, and that's the fun of following this circus.
People like to say that but it was about 80 degrees when the race was run with slight humidity and it was run in the shade. If you check the wind readings for the sprints in that meet, you’ll see the wind was minimal. If you look at a picture of the stadium you will see why.
Half of the track was in the shade.
Temp was 86 degrees that is hardly optimal.
Pacemaking lagged from 1500-2000m.
But if people think he would have otherwise run 7:15, all that was worth 2.5 seconds or about .3 seconds per lap.
When Craig Virgin ran his 8:41 national record, the conditions were far worse so outside of a strong wind, I believe weather conditions don’t have much affect on the 3000m/2-mile distances.
Also, agree with the above poster that Jakob doesn’t need to work his way down to record level with a series of fast 5ks, like Salvitore Stitchmo likes to say every time this subject comes up.
That's fine - it's my opinion. Never claimed it to be fact.
And the cool thing is, we are going to find out one way or another aren't we. He could even answer the question for us if he plans something in his near future that isn't straight down to a legit attempt with WR pace wavelight or pacers.
haha you are so annoyed, we can all hear the seething from here.
Forget Lilo and Stitch, I want to see John and Stitch