Would you rather have 1 billion dollars today or 1 dollar that is guaranteed to double every year?

The threshold for buying positions in national government is probably a wealth of at least $10 million. Maybe more. For Cabinet level positions, you'll need to be a major donor. Probably donating at least $10 million to the presidential candidate of your choice.

You want the billion dollars today, as the actual buying power of that billion $ will be greater today than in the future, due to inflation.

Also the way the USA is going the value of a USA dollar relative to other currencies may not be as great in 20-30 years as it is now.

Extreme wealth becomes almost meaningless past a certain point. Actually, it becomes depressing. I call this Olmstead's Principle of Reverse Returns. It's more extensive than diminishing returns since it allows for negative return values.

Olmstead's Principle, to use an example, goes like this:

John has acquired a net worth of $1 billion. He feels that he can do anything he wants, but at that moment, he feels deep regret because it's temporary and he has limited time to spend it. John knows he has an end day and will never be able to live long enough to do all he wants. It's hard to feel like you're on top of the world when the realization of your own mortality kicks in.

That's only true if the money isn't in an interest-bearing account. It will keep up with inflation and remain the same if the interest grows at the same rate the consumer price index grows.

Of course, the caveat is being disciplined enough to utilize the funds judiciously...

A billionaire is so different than a millionaire or even someone with tens of millions of dollars. I don’t think most people understand the scale. “Acting judiciously” is true when you win 30-million in the lottery, but a billionaire can build insane houses, declare themself a Nazi, destroy their fashion company, and still be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Have you seen the price of sports teams?

or top ocean front property? A billion isn’t what it used to be.

Heavens yes. I'm 72 so even more for me. But even if I was 22 I'd take the billion on the spot money. I had student loans to pay, old cars to fix, rent checks that I prayed weren't going to bounce. So in thirty or so years you'd have two billion dollars? Who cares? Why would you need or want more than a billion?

I’m 45. I might never live to break even, but I could make a run at a fun empire. I have enough savings to have a fun couple years without depending on the money.

After say 5 years, the actuarial tables are going to continually work in my favor, so I’ll start selling ‘shares’ of my future earnings. I’ll sell just enough to live comfortably until the payments get big and focus on my health.

By 65, I’m set with significant payments every year.

65-75 I can do just about whatever I want and start focusing on charitable pursuits.

75-85 I have many to start affecting public policy.

85+ I’m financially now more important than anyone else in world politics. I shape global monetary policy. I set up universal basic income… by ~95 every year I reset the financial markets. Obviously, I have to hide most of my wealth, but I can create a utopia where people work towards whatever I choose because my annual payment will slowly match the entire global economy.

If you're trying to maximize your personal happiness, then take the billion right now.

The doubling option is the choice if you want to take a moonshot at fundamentally changing the world. But, there is a risk of unintended consequences. With 1 billion dollars you can still be relatively anonymous. Once you become the wealthiest individual in the world there's no blending in. You probably need round the clock security, nutjobs might stalk you or spread conspiracy theories.

It is all about the risk vs reward profile of the two options. There are two big risks with Option B -- that you die, and that the counterparty cannot pay out the contract.

Who is promising to pay this money, and what are the odds that they will have the financial ability to keep paying out the contract 20 or 30 years from now? And when the sums start getting really big, no one would make such large payments. Even governments of wealthy countries would choose to default on the debt rather than giving such large amounts to one person for some contract made 30 years ago.

Option A has a much better reward for the risk (essentially zero risk if you are paid immediately). Option B can have a higher payout, but carries much higher risk to receiving that payout.

I know one person who is deeply into crypto who is quite certain there will be no US currency in the future, so Option B would be worthless in their opinion. And I know another person who told me flat out they would take neither option, it would bring too many problems, and they have enough already. I know both of these people mean it, too.

I may not understand finance, though I think I do. I understand that a billion dollars is way more than enough for anyone. I also understand longevity. At 75 to 85 you may be able to affect public policy. Or you may be decomposing.

A couple million is more than enough. By the time I’m 65 I’m getting more than I’d reasonably spend. From a practical standpoint $5 million and $1 billion would give me similar freedom because I get joy from simple things.

So I’m risking a little security those first few years against a moonshot that I can change the world. I understand it is a gamble, but I’m pretty healthy @45 and don’t engage in risky behaviors so actuarially I’ve got decent odds of hitting 75.

The second one will certainly add up to far more eventually, but who cares.

1 billion dollars is far more than any human needs in 10 lifetimes, so I'd hardly feel like I was missing out by choosing option 1.

I'm 66 so I'll take the 1 billion. And I think for anyone at any age 1 billion is the better option. Break it down into how much you can spend every year for 40-50 years.

Just the 2.5% interest you get from a trust fund is more than you'll need.

I am older than you and I would take the billion.

Mark Twain explained it best: It is far easier to fool people than it is to convince them that they have been fooled.

If you think you'll earn a real yield of 5% p.a. over inflation of 3% p.a. (i.e. nominal yield of 8%), the dollar starts to be better at the end of 33 years. This is pushed back to 34 years if you think you'll get a real yield of 6% (which is pretty punchy), or as long as 36-37 years if you think long term inflation will be more like 7-8%.

Keep in mind that the doubled dollars you receive can also be invested and so will provide a partial inflation hedge (they will earn the same nominal rate as the billion), which starts to help post year 20-25.

Still a pretty long time to bet that you'll be around and that the world won't have changed too dramatically to make the money meaningful, so I think the billion is better unless you're young and focused mainly on leaving a huge legacy for your heirs.