2025 Bryan Clay Invitational

Geoffrey Kirwa 8:13…near 10s PB for the 23-year-old yes freshman of Louisville.

Damn, Geoffrey Kirwa of Louisville via Kenya is a specialist: 8:13 steeple is so much better than what he’d done in the NCAA previously. He did run 8:22 in 2023 and 8:23 in Nairobi in 2022, so I guess it’s not too shocking.

tough luck for Karrie Baloga, she was right there with the lead pack then stumbled over a hurdle with 2 laps to go and lost contact. still ran a respectable 9:44.

Steeple is weird…he did run 13:30 at Stanford. It feels like if you’re hurdling is good you can run within 20-25s of your maximal 3000. That seems off for a guy like Girma, but about right for El Bakkali or Rooks which might prove the point.

Baloga will get 'em next time. More solid form from Sarah Tait. Her previous best was 9:49.

Only Rono has run quicker as a collegian. If Kirwa becomes a consistent, three-season athlete through his JR year, do you expect his 3k/steeple gap to narrow, widen or not change significantly?

Yeah but his World Athletics profile has a 2001 birthday. Doesn’t really matter I guess:

worldathletics.org

Geoffrey Kipkemoi KIRWA | Profile | World Athletics

Geoffrey Kipkemoi KIRWA, Kenya - 5000 Metres, 3000 Metres Short Track, Mile, Mile Short Track, 5000 Metres Short Track, Road Race, 3000 Metres Steeplechase

Open link

Nathaniel Garner earned the first DQ of the meet in the morning 10000 for "shoe control".

Yeah doesn’t really matter, there’s 28 y/o freshman. Athletes come to the NCAA at all kinds of ages nowadays.

Let me correct myself, It does seem to matter for many if they are BYU athletes, then two years older matters in a big way

Schubert 27:45 ftw, just. Nice 23s PB for the 2024 XC Nats 3rd Pl finisher.

Not quite, you’re missing one.

This is an absurdly fast time to not come from The Ten. It may be like, top 5 or even top 3 so far this outdoor season to not come from an NCAA meet not the Ten.

It does matter because it confers an advantage, regardless of whether the NCAA is going to enforce any commonsense rules.

4:49.7 is 15:00 5k pace. She'd have to run very close to the same pace of her 3200m to 5000m. However, she did that with no drafting and her 9:37 at altitude was worth 9:25 with no pacers, so she has a shot and should end up at least in the low 15s. She also wasn't too broken down by the 15:13, being able to go on and run an HSR 4:26 in the mile.

Woody Kincaid is running the 5k? What?

In terms of whether Kirwa is likely to improve much by the end of his college career is most pertinent probably. Based on his age (either 23 or 25) and running 8:23 at altitude so many years ago, you'd think *probably* not a ton. This is possibly the big breakthrough of more consistent training from a pretty high starting point. He did look great and was well within himself in the race. He'll need to be able to run this sort of time or faster at altitude to have a shot at making a Kenyan team with their outstanding depth there and influx of young talent in the steeple (the Serems, Koech et al.). But if he was 20-21, you'd wonder if he could break 8 while in the NCAA. Given his age, that seems unlikely and more he'll settle around this level or a little faster.

Just saw this too. Thought he was switching to the roads, but maybe that was someone else. Either way, always happy to see him race. I imagine Samuel and Kipkurui are gonna want to run close to 13:00 based on their recent 10k. Kincaid's only result since September was a 63:00 NY half in March, and while that may have been a Jakob-level performance, it was still almost 4 mins behind Mantz. Regardless, he should still be pretty fit off HM training, and if he thinks he can at least compete with the best college guys, he should be ready to run pretty fast.

I'm also very excited to see how Lex Young does. His 27:48 from a couple weeks ago was definitely his best performance ever. It was his first that was substantially better from his HS days, and it's worth a sub-13:20 5k. He's clearly very fit, and had a nice 2:04 last 800m in his 10k, so he should be confident too. If the leaders go out at 13:05-10 pace, he might be able to hang on and run sub-13:15, which would put him real close to where Nico was at the same age (13:11). There's a fine line between a big pb and a big blowup, although in his fitness, Lex could run a decent pb with a big blowup.

Woody did state last year that 2024 was it for him on the track . . . but then changed his mind and stated on a Coffee Club episode a few months back that he was focusing on the track 10,000 this year, delaying his move to the marathon until 2026.

As far as Lex running the 5000 tonight, an old rule of thumb is to take your ave 5000 pace from your 10,000 pr then subtract 30 seconds for a projected equivalent 5000 pr.

Thus, 27:48 = 2x13:54, minus 30 secs = 13:24.

However, lots of variance with this formula; Lex could very well get pulled along to a sub-13:20.

Given L&L are virtually joined at the hip training and performance-wise -- as well as seemingly everything else in life -- and Leo just ran a 13:31 pr @ Stanford Invite, anything under 13:30 will be sunshine & rainbows.

Note: Lex's teammates Cole & Thomas are also racing the elite 5000 race. Possible Santos/coach only wants them to run together and achieve their top-48 West Regional Qs. In 2024, 48th fastest West Regional runner was at 13:49. So, I will not be discouraged if they all run something like 13:40-flat just to check off the Q box.