Um….didn’t he trip and get last in a final he 100% had high odds to medal in?
Getting tripped isn’t his fault…
Not taking the lead with 600 to go like he did successfully in the following years global championship (1997) wasn’t his fault? He opened himself up to fall and did. Why do you guys make excuses for runners you love? Let’s be fair here, the point of this discussion is comparing both runners in events they both medalled in.
That's not bad logic at all - I see that and it makes sense.
I guess I look at it in terms of totally arbitrary "percentages". I feel like he has a 30% chance of the WR just because it is such a tough time he has to beat and how that would have to come together (2.45.5 at 1200 and still run the equivalent of a 53.9 last lap - ouch). But I totally get you with the World Champs position but this is why I put those odds slightly higher (than my arbitrary 30%). I have to believe Paris was a big turning point for him. He was complacent in Eugene, I do think he was sick in Budapest but in Paris he got to run the exact race he wanted to and thought would destroy the field - and it didn't. I think that was the wakeup call for him that it's really not easy to just go out and recklessly try and blow these guys away from the front because guess what, they are all really good too. What you said is his best path to win - a brutal last 900-1000m and you are also right we haven't seen any evidence outdoors he will do this because I think he's never had the kick in the teeth like he got last year in Paris. I do think he's going to adjust, I think we have seen some signs of this brewing indoors with the way he's been racing these finals. I could be totally wrong but that's just an opinion.
Agree with all your other points there.
This is unrelated: I do kinda wonder why he took the lead at that point in that World Indoors 1500. OK he won, so I'm not going to be too critical. However, his 1500m heat was WAY more impressive and easy a victory. While a race vs. Geordie Beamish or Cole Hocker might mean the random kickfest strategy would be a miss, I actually think his margin of victory would've been significantly better if he'd just kicked at 350 or 250 to go at World Indoors.
Taking the lead when he did backfired in my opinion. Pallitsch, Nader and others took a run at him and he expended energy holding them off. Gourley and Houser got pretty clean and patient runs behind the action and were shockingly close to him IMO. I really think he would've won by more with pretty much any other playbook in that one. Everyone was fresh as a daisy at 600 to go and he ended up working harder than Gourley or Houser while accruing less of the benefit of running indoors (those guys only really tried to pass him in the last 100 where the curve had no impact).
This isn't to say his tactics were bad, but just a jogging 900 and then a steady 600 doesn't hurt a field much. A blistering last 800+ or a an all-out last 250 or 350 might. Instead he opened it up for lesser guys to take cracks at him while the better guys chilled (outside of Nader).
I guess simplified:
-He didn't run from far enough out to "control the race," as it was too slow for this and there were too many guys willing to make him work to hold the lead
-He didn't sprint from close enough to just blow this thing open at average 25.5 the last 250-350 in a slow race which we know he can do
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Once he completes the double this summer or atleast wins the 1500m, and sets a WR in either the 1500 or 5000m, I don’t see anyway how he hasn’t matched Hicham El Guerrouj.
Match him as what exactly. The #2 most accomplished 1500-5000 runner behind Paavo Nurmi?
Ok, let’s bring in Paavo Nurmi to the discussion. He won one Olympic Gold over 1500m and a Gold plus 2 Silver over 5000m. Jakob would need to win the 5000m in LA to match that. If we look at times, Nurmi set every record between 1500m -5000m (Mile, 2000m, 3000m, 2 Miles). However like another poster said, the times are unbelievably different that it begs the question of whether Nurmi had it easier in setting those records than Jakob. I’m not sure.
Let me rephrase my post. Jakob placed 4th in the Olympic 1500m final largely due to a miscalculation on the first lap (13.3 second 100m and an overall first 400 of 54.8). This small mistake put him off the medals completely. Similarly, El Guerrouj allowed the 1996 Olympic final to go slow which allowed for a much higher chance of falling. He took this risk and placed last by tactically choosing most likely the wrong strategy. The margins were thin as well. I was simply responding to the poster who was pretending that El Guerrouj wasn’t capable of getting outside of medals in the event (He was and showed how).
I mean there have been so many slow 1500m finals over the course of history where guys didn't fall - and when falls happen they aren't always just one guys fault. I have never heard of a fall in a race being blamed on one guy "because he let it go slow".
Jakob lets finals "go slow" all the time in the 5000m. If they go through 3000m in 8.10 again this year and he get's tripped is that his fault? Does that show he wasn't capable of winning a medal? Falling in a race is not an example of not being capable of winning a medal. Come on.
That's not bad logic at all - I see that and it makes sense.
I guess I look at it in terms of totally arbitrary "percentages". I feel like he has a 30% chance of the WR just because it is such a tough time he has to beat and how that would have to come together (2.45.5 at 1200 and still run the equivalent of a 53.9 last lap - ouch). But I totally get you with the World Champs position but this is why I put those odds slightly higher (than my arbitrary 30%). I have to believe Paris was a big turning point for him. He was complacent in Eugene, I do think he was sick in Budapest but in Paris he got to run the exact race he wanted to and thought would destroy the field - and it didn't. I think that was the wakeup call for him that it's really not easy to just go out and recklessly try and blow these guys away from the front because guess what, they are all really good too. What you said is his best path to win - a brutal last 900-1000m and you are also right we haven't seen any evidence outdoors he will do this because I think he's never had the kick in the teeth like he got last year in Paris. I do think he's going to adjust, I think we have seen some signs of this brewing indoors with the way he's been racing these finals. I could be totally wrong but that's just an opinion.
Agree with all your other points there.
This is unrelated: I do kinda wonder why he took the lead at that point in that World Indoors 1500. OK he won, so I'm not going to be too critical. However, his 1500m heat was WAY more impressive and easy a victory. While a race vs. Geordie Beamish or Cole Hocker might mean the random kickfest strategy would be a miss, I actually think his margin of victory would've been significantly better if he'd just kicked at 350 or 250 to go at World Indoors.
Taking the lead when he did backfired in my opinion. Pallitsch, Nader and others took a run at him and he expended energy holding them off. Gourley and Houser got pretty clean and patient runs behind the action and were shockingly close to him IMO. I really think he would've won by more with pretty much any other playbook in that one. Everyone was fresh as a daisy at 600 to go and he ended up working harder than Gourley or Houser while accruing less of the benefit of running indoors (those guys only really tried to pass him in the last 100 where the curve had no impact).
This isn't to say his tactics were bad, but just a jogging 900 and then a steady 600 doesn't hurt a field much. A blistering last 800+ or a an all-out last 250 or 350 might. Instead he opened it up for lesser guys to take cracks at him while the better guys chilled (outside of Nader).
I guess simplified:
-He didn't run from far enough out to "control the race," as it was too slow for this and there were too many guys willing to make him work to hold the lead
-He didn't sprint from close enough to just blow this thing open at average 25.5 the last 250-350 in a slow race which we know he can do
My view on that race is that he tried to save as much energy as possible. He was there to get the job done and simply thinking on the season ahead of him
Match him as what exactly. The #2 most accomplished 1500-5000 runner behind Paavo Nurmi?
I know you're not 100% serious here, and I also know that by a certain definition of "accomplished" it's almost impossible for any athlete today to have the same level of dominance of those a hundred years ago. But just to put things in context...
Paavo Nurmi's lifetime 1500m PB was 3:52, which is slower than Jess Hull and, coincidentally, the exact same time it took Ingebrigtsen to run a mile at age 17.
Nurmi's lifetime 5000m best was 14:28, over a minute slower than Mo "never push the pace" Farah's winning time in three of his five global 5k golds.
Remember Ingebrigtsen's disastrous half marathon? Turns out his average pace in that race was slightly faster than Nurmi's best at the 10k distance.
In other words, the difference in times over the past 100 years is so dramatically large that it's impossible to make any sort of reasonable comparision. This is not a Peter Snell sort of situation where a second or two for shoes and a second or two for the track surface puts him right at the modern world record. Get much before 1960 and the quality was so different it was barely even the same sport.
People are products of their time. Put any of the runners you named in a time machine as babies and send them back to the year that Nurmi was born and see how they do within the confines of Nurmi’s era. Nurmi would crush them!
Jakob said he wants to be the greatest of all time. All Time includes Nurmi’s era. Nurmi accomplished more in his era from 1500 to 10000 than anyone else has done in their era.
Well he's going to win the 5000m unless either Fisher, Aregawi or Gebrhiwet can channel the ghosts of either Komen or Bekele and take it to him in the last 2000m like he's never experienced before. The thing is, I don't see that happening. The 5000m still seems like a massive unknown in terms of a time/his PR because where is he going to go for it and is he going to go for the WR in what would basically be his first actual attempt at a fast 5000?
So it's all about the 1500m this year and what happens. I haven't really shifted on my opinion re his potential which is I think he can break 3.27.0 again and get close to running under 3.26.5 - but 3.25.X is a little bit too far. I do think he can win the world title though - he's experienced enough in 3 global losses to I think know by now how he is going to do that without someone pacing him to 1350m in an empty stadium like Tokyo in 2021.
Tough to match El G purely as a 1500m/miler. Really he needs both WR's there and at least the world title this year and in Beijing but even then that's tough. El G finished his career with a gold and silver from the OG's (I don't know if Jakob will even match this) a world silver and 4 straight golds.
I also don't think we can/should lump El G in as a 5000m guy. He cared about it for 2 seasons and in that tiny window he ran 12.50 in his only attempt at a time, gained a silver from the worlds and a gold from the Olympics and most importantly he beat Bekele in both of those races who is arguably still the 5000m GOAT and was the WR holder in Athens.
Paris hurt his legacy a lot - fairly or unfairly. He had gone back to back there and pulled off the double this could really be a different conversation.
Funny, I'd put his chances of a 1500 WR higher than him winning the WC 1500. He just hasn't given any indication that he wants to change his tactics. He just says he wants to win from the front to prove he's better than everyone (sidenote: Idk why he has this attitude towards the 1500 when he's happy to sit for 4600m in the 5k and then kick). I still wanna see how he fares if he makes the pace honest for 500-700m then makes it a brutal last 1k-800, but I don't see any evidence that that's what he wants to do. Rather, I see him just wanting to get into good enough shape to frontrun the race, which he probably sees as soloing a 3:26 high after what happened at the Olympics.
Unless he makes a similar drop to the 1500/mile records that he made to the 3k record, I don't think he can ever match El G. Not even a knock on Jakob, I just don't think he's a pure 1500 guy like El G was. It was definitely possible after 2021 when he won gold at like age 20, but he's lost 3 championships since then, and I don't see him winning the next 4, which would surely put him above El G. I think El G will reign supreme as the best 1500 guy ever (maybe Hocker or one of the young guys could overtake him, but we're 5+ years away from that at minimum), but Jakob can certainly solidify himself as the GOAT distance runner in the next few years. 1500 or mile outdoor record, 5k record, and a few more 5k golds plus some other medals. A 1500 gold would go a long way for his legacy, as would a 10k gold or a double at WCs/Olys.
I agree completely. Jakob’s likelihood of surpassing El G purely as a 1500m runner is close to impossible, but as a 15/5000m guy, certainly. Jakob has won 3 straight champs over 5000m while El G did not bother to touch the event until 2003 despite being so so good at it as said by Salvitore. It’s a valid comparison.
Let me rephrase my post. Jakob placed 4th in the Olympic 1500m final largely due to a miscalculation on the first lap (13.3 second 100m and an overall first 400 of 54.8). This small mistake put him off the medals completely. Similarly, El Guerrouj allowed the 1996 Olympic final to go slow which allowed for a much higher chance of falling. He took this risk and placed last by tactically choosing most likely the wrong strategy. The margins were thin as well. I was simply responding to the poster who was pretending that El Guerrouj wasn’t capable of getting outside of medals in the event (He was and showed how).
I mean there have been so many slow 1500m finals over the course of history where guys didn't fall - and when falls happen they aren't always just one guys fault. I have never heard of a fall in a race being blamed on one guy "because he let it go slow".
Jakob lets finals "go slow" all the time in the 5000m. If they go through 3000m in 8.10 again this year and he get's tripped is that his fault? Does that show he wasn't capable of winning a medal? Falling in a race is not an example of not being capable of winning a medal. Come on.
We choose strategies and take risks all the time in racing. El Guerrouj let the pace go slow and did not take the lead with 600m to go like the next year where he was successful. There was a potential of falling with this strategy and he paid the price. Similarly, Jakob decided to front run his way to victory in Paris. With this strategy there is a potential of going out too hard, breaking the wind for other runners, etc. There is no way you are trying to tell me that these are not similar. Also, I am not saying that El Guerrouj did not have the potential to medal or win gold in that race, he did. But his specific strategy largely contributed to him falling and thus, not actually winning a medal.
Yes, I would hold Jakob falling against him in the 5000m. He has a 7:17 3000m PB yet always allows the race to go slow through 3000m. There is a risk of falling and has gotten spiked and bumped into multiple times in Budapest and Paris.
We can just agree to disagree on this too, but that’s my take, cheers.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
He will also need a WR in an Olympic event (1500m or 5000m), the 10,000m Olympic Gold, and a World Cross Gold if he really wants to lock down the Ultimate-GOAT status.
I am a huge Jakob Fan, but without a WR, he runs the risk of being someone like Mo Farah who had a million medals but zero real world records.
p.s. I personally consider his 7:17 3K among the best records in our sport, but a lot of the haters here need it to be the 1500m before they'll stop hating...
facts of any kind don't matter.
haters are in the business of hating, that's their jam, Dr. Phil says you their prognosis for change is near zero.
fully expect when Jacob sets the world record, the haters will immediately say he's peaked.
jacob just out kicked everybody in heats and 2 finals, in slow races, no matter.
because there might be 2 guys in the world that can out kick Jacob on their best day, he can't kick.
Not taking the lead with 600 to go like he did successfully in the following years global championship (1997) wasn’t his fault? He opened himself up to fall and did. Why do you guys make excuses for runners you love? Let’s be fair here, the point of this discussion is comparing both runners in events they both medalled in.
I can see by your comments and youthfulness that you have only been in the sport of 1500m analytics for 1-2 years while guys like John Wesley Harding and I have combined 100 years of experience in the 1500m. You have speck in your eyes if you keep denigrating El G and elevating Jakob at every opportunity. This much is true
I mean there have been so many slow 1500m finals over the course of history where guys didn't fall - and when falls happen they aren't always just one guys fault. I have never heard of a fall in a race being blamed on one guy "because he let it go slow".
Jakob lets finals "go slow" all the time in the 5000m. If they go through 3000m in 8.10 again this year and he get's tripped is that his fault? Does that show he wasn't capable of winning a medal? Falling in a race is not an example of not being capable of winning a medal. Come on.
We choose strategies and take risks all the time in racing. El Guerrouj let the pace go slow and did not take the lead with 600m to go like the next year where he was successful. There was a potential of falling with this strategy and he paid the price. Similarly, Jakob decided to front run his way to victory in Paris. With this strategy there is a potential of going out too hard, breaking the wind for other runners, etc. There is no way you are trying to tell me that these are not similar. Also, I am not saying that El Guerrouj did not have the potential to medal or win gold in that race, he did. But his specific strategy largely contributed to him falling and thus, not actually winning a medal.
Yes, I would hold Jakob falling against him in the 5000m. He has a 7:17 3000m PB yet always allows the race to go slow through 3000m. There is a risk of falling and has gotten spiked and bumped into multiple times in Budapest and Paris.
We can just agree to disagree on this too, but that’s my take, cheers.
Kiddo, the real Olympic champion in 96 was El G and not morceli. Even morceli later conceded El G was going to win the race. Why bring in a bunch of nonsense about strategy and try to win points like that?
Thanks for sharing those races. El G. was the king to be sure! If anyone is too young know these guys, these videos are a must watch...
Said Aouita - Range GOAT of his era 800m through 10km!
Noureddine Morceli - King of the 90s
El Guerrouj - 1500m GOAT to this day
The thing with Jakob is that he is not just a 1500m runner. He has made being the all-around GOAT the goal. If he won a couple more 1500m titles and got under 3:26, that would be great for him, but honestly, I think he is aiming much higher!
If you asked Jakob, he would say something like 3:25, 7:17, 12:30, 26:10 and at least one Gold in each event. Something like that. His talk of 10 world records notwithstanding, he could potentially get these five...
I believe El G was 7-3 in 1500m championship finals.
Jakob is 2-5 after this win. Pretty sure that ship has sailed.
It's pretty simple, really.
Jakob has been much better since early in his career than El G was in the 5000, hence a lot more opportunities to rack up medals in the two events combined.
El G didn't double up into the 5000 until the Paris 2003 WC, a full six years after his first global 1500 win. He was always incredible in the 1500/3000, but the 5000 came later and briefly; his sweet spot just wasn't really as wide as Jakob's. Jakob won the 2021 OG 1500 and has doubled in every WC/OG since then: 2022, 2023, 2024...
But meanwhile, Jakob is clearly not nearly as good in the mile as El G. There is no way anyone is look at Jakob's record as of 2025 and calling him "King of the Mile" which was simply undisputed for El G with a spectacular four WC wins and an OG gold.
This is unrelated: I do kinda wonder why he took the lead at that point in that World Indoors 1500. OK he won, so I'm not going to be too critical. However, his 1500m heat was WAY more impressive and easy a victory. While a race vs. Geordie Beamish or Cole Hocker might mean the random kickfest strategy would be a miss, I actually think his margin of victory would've been significantly better if he'd just kicked at 350 or 250 to go at World Indoors.
Taking the lead when he did backfired in my opinion. Pallitsch, Nader and others took a run at him and he expended energy holding them off. Gourley and Houser got pretty clean and patient runs behind the action and were shockingly close to him IMO. I really think he would've won by more with pretty much any other playbook in that one. Everyone was fresh as a daisy at 600 to go and he ended up working harder than Gourley or Houser while accruing less of the benefit of running indoors (those guys only really tried to pass him in the last 100 where the curve had no impact).
This isn't to say his tactics were bad, but just a jogging 900 and then a steady 600 doesn't hurt a field much. A blistering last 800+ or a an all-out last 250 or 350 might. Instead he opened it up for lesser guys to take cracks at him while the better guys chilled (outside of Nader).
I guess simplified:
-He didn't run from far enough out to "control the race," as it was too slow for this and there were too many guys willing to make him work to hold the lead
-He didn't sprint from close enough to just blow this thing open at average 25.5 the last 250-350 in a slow race which we know he can do
My view on that race is that he tried to save as much energy as possible. He was there to get the job done and simply thinking on the season ahead of him
No, he wasn't. No one thinks of the year ahead when they are running in a final.
My view on that race is that he tried to save as much energy as possible. He was there to get the job done and simply thinking on the season ahead of him
I suppose that could be it, but an odd tact with 10 weeks probably until his next race. If anything I’d find the weekend a bit humbling for Jakob. Outside of being sick and facing Katir who started his whereabouts failures ahead of it, that was by far the closest he’s coming to losing in a championship 3K/5K. After seeing his 1500 prelim, it looked like he had the gears to dispel the whole kick/speed questions. It just surprises me that he didn’t put his stamp on the final with either a huge kick or impressive last K.
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
Let me rephrase my post. Jakob placed 4th in the Olympic 1500m final largely due to a miscalculation on the first lap (13.3 second 100m and an overall first 400 of 54.8). This small mistake put him off the medals completely. Similarly, El Guerrouj allowed the 1996 Olympic final to go slow which allowed for a much higher chance of falling. He took this risk and placed last by tactically choosing most likely the wrong strategy. The margins were thin as well. I was simply responding to the poster who was pretending that El Guerrouj wasn’t capable of getting outside of medals in the event (He was and showed how).
I mean there have been so many slow 1500m finals over the course of history where guys didn't fall - and when falls happen they aren't always just one guys fault. I have never heard of a fall in a race being blamed on one guy "because he let it go slow".
Jakob lets finals "go slow" all the time in the 5000m. If they go through 3000m in 8.10 again this year and he get's tripped is that his fault? Does that show he wasn't capable of winning a medal? Falling in a race is not an example of not being capable of winning a medal. Come on.
It wasn't El G fault for falling, but it was his fault for deploying race tactics that let a slow race play out, creating a delicious trip frenzy storm to brew, which El G got caught up in. He could have ran the race faster, because he has the capacity to. Same deal with Jakob in Paris, he lay the table in the first lap of leading to serve a delicious multi-colour medal buffet to his competitors in the home stretch.
Likewise, yes Jakob lets some 1500m and 5000m finals play out slow - and he openly states he is taking big risks, it's a race. If he trips, we would all be having the same conversation about what a dumb dumb he is.
This post was edited 53 seconds after it was posted.
I suppose that could be it, but an odd tact with 10 weeks probably until his next race. If anything I’d find the weekend a bit humbling for Jakob. Outside of being sick and facing Katir who started his whereabouts failures ahead of it, that was by far the closest he’s coming to losing in a championship 3K/5K. After seeing his 1500 prelim, it looked like he had the gears to dispel the whole kick/speed questions. It just surprises me that he didn’t put his stamp on the final with either a huge kick or impressive last K.
Did you see his interview with JG afterwards? He mentioned his race over 3000m against Aregawi at the Lausanne DL in 2021. He had to come back on Aregawi to win that one too, and was really tired after - clearly had to dig deeper than for this one. Here, on the other hand, it didn’t seem like he had to go to the well - just left it late, but still shut it down with ~20m to go. And you may not be counting it as a “championship” 3000m, but the Diamond League final in Eugene 2023 was a 0.01s win over Kejelcha on a dive, though it was paced and the day after the mile. (I suppose you meant “recently” in the 3k/5k as he lost in Doha 2019, as well as in a few other non-championship settings.) Perhaps the race-a-day schedule just took a bit out of him than we’re used to.
My view on that race is that he tried to save as much energy as possible. He was there to get the job done and simply thinking on the season ahead of him
I suppose that could be it, but an odd tact with 10 weeks probably until his next race. If anything I’d find the weekend a bit humbling for Jakob. Outside of being sick and facing Katir who started his whereabouts failures ahead of it, that was by far the closest he’s coming to losing in a championship 3K/5K. After seeing his 1500 prelim, it looked like he had the gears to dispel the whole kick/speed questions. It just surprises me that he didn’t put his stamp on the final with either a huge kick or impressive last K.
Because he hasn’t peaked. This is obvious. Most of the guys running behind him are pretty sharp already except for Gourley and maybe Aregawi.
Also, to say that this is his 7th season as a runner, you could also say it is his 10th season (since he raced the steeplechase at the Rio Olympics), or that it is his 5th season (if we don't count 2020 for obvious reasons).