Jakob Predictions at Lievin on 13th Feb

it is a strange era, when a guy is predicted to open in a WR

and if he doesn't get it, he's finished...

but i go along with 344

What’s your source?

I think the “open” thing is a bit of a non-issue at this point. He’ll have done something in practice to prepare for race intensity. This record can be revised as his outdoor PB is more than 3s faster and most of us think he can lower that PB further.

If anyone hops in last minute, I'd hope for Cam Myers, giving us the first of many Mehary v. Myers scraps to come.

Using “WR” is a tad misleading. It should be “Indoor WR”.

ya

I’ll go even further and say there is no such thing as indoor WRs. The tracks now are even better than outdoors so the times should just be considered equal to outdoors, not a WR.

3:46.64

My only prediction. New Indoor World Record. Two days from now we can start to make better predictions or at least we will have an indication of his shape, seven months before Tokyo.

Jakob debuts a bicarb performance, runs 3:43.5

2 Predictions

1. Gordon Mack flies out to film his prep workout and titles it "Lievin Conditioner

2. 3:47.55

Thank you for that link. The women's races are also strong, given the first time the top Ethiopians are showing up as a group. The 3000 has Tsegay, Hailu, Haylom and will be paced by the young Berhe. It will be interesting to see how the Ethiopians deal with the new threat from Battocletti. Without Tsegay I'd say no team tactics but it has happened, both indoors and outdoors, when she is in the race. It often looks like a triangle formation with someone intentionally running behind Tsegay and at her right shoulder. But this may be deemed too early and not significant enough for something like that.

Welteji also debuts for 2025. She is in the 1500 to conclude the meet. Tigist Girma looks like her principal challenger.

It's probably sensible to separate Hailu and Welteji indoors. They have different strengths and it didn't seem to help either one of them last year. Hailu was repeatedly outkicking Welteji to win. That seemed to put a dent in Welteji's confidence. She ran a strangely horrible race at world indoors and didn't fare well in her early outdoor races. Hailu tried to apply the same sit and wait tactic outdoors but was outrun and no factor. Only when she wasn't chosen for the Olympic team did she wise up late season and run more forwardly placed, per Ethiopian norm and team selection demand. Hailu again ran toward the front in her indoor 8:24 last week.

That would be a huge slowdown in the last 109m which is unusual for Jakob. A 3:29.88 split should put him around 3:45 flat at worst. Was him hitting the wall one of the bold predictions?

3:44.87

You can bet Armstronglivs’ Depend briefs will be sloshing with full fill joy if Jakob has a bad run.

What’s the over/under on amount of bi-carb he uses?

Does anyone know how we can watch this meet? I don’t mind signing up for a VPN to catch a stream somewhere, but I am absolutely not paying flotrack $30/month. Tried to find this info on the World Athletics website, but I’m finding it a little glitchy

That is Champagne comedy sir! 👌

since he missed his chance at millrose, kerr is a last minute entry and runs 3:44. Jakob close behind in 3;45. call it