Ncaa mile record on watch at BU

its in the event info on the lancer timing live results page. The mens mile is scheduled for 3pm EST on saturday.

In a perfectly paced, low entry (7-8) indoor mile race, I think there are currently 5 or so people capable of breaking the record. Pacing is paramount to breaking distance records on the track and has been for years.

If Strand breaks the mile record, giving him the mile and 3k record, talk about something that no one saw coming. This might be a contrarian opinion, but I bet he doesn't win either at NCAA's.

I think he'll loose one of them at ACCs.

Anyway, as evidenced by interviews with Miltenberg following the 3k record, Strand wouldn't be racing here unless he was 100000% ready. He must be showing crazy form to get put in now.

I guess I don’t get it? He’s run 3:35 right, which is worth a 3:52. He’s quite a bit better than then. The mile marginally helps him as he has to hold 57.5+. There might be some range of outcomes between 3:49.5-3:53.0 with pacing coming into play in a one-off, but that guy who ran 7:30 is not merely a 3:52.5 guy. It doesn’t compute.

p3niz

Just my opinion. I think he;s worth a 3:52.5 right now, but he could run better.

If you think he's a 57.5 per quarter guy (3:50.0), you may be right.

When I talk about racing, I NEVER talk about what a guy is "capable" of running; that requires everything to go perfectly. I talk about what I expect a guy will run.

BU is very fast. I hope Strand runs well.

Fair enough. I’d put his fitness at around 3:50.0 but expect it won’t be perfect so anything between that maximal mark and 3:53 wouldn’t shock me. With that 2:22 target, it’s more to me if the pacer goes too fast and they do 56-59-60-kick. That’s a recipe for a 3:52-3. If he comes through evenly in 2:23-4 I’m confident if he’s in similar fitness he’s running 3:50-51. But that is a large if given pacing dynamics.

He didn’t go from 7:46 to 7:30 in a year. He went from 7:46 2 years ago to 7:30 this year. Last year, he only ran 1 3k which was a tactical 7:55, beating Wolfe who ran 7:37 last year.

A great point, I would say this, yet again, he had perfect perfect storm in 3K, company all the way, all out to the wire, that rarely happens in set up record attempts , run that fast.

And Sahlman has never run 3:52.. second time I have seen that ... he ran 3:53.17

I think Strand and Murphy are almost identical guys,(could be wrong)Murphy has beaten him head to head twice less than a year ago at 1500, on neither's best days/ I think Murphy would be about a 3:52.2-.5 on his best day.

Do you not see how close a prediction 13 flat would have been after 7:28? But everyone was disappointed by the run and it seemed Nuguse's endurance didn't really go to 5000m at the time. Strand's just completed a good xc season, so his likely would go to 5000m, but here we're not talking about whether his endurance goes to 5000m but whether he can step down from 3k to mile and run a commensurate time. Considering that he's a miler known for his kick, that he ran 7:30 before much "speedwork," off of xc fitness and one sharpening workout, that he dropped a ton of time at 3k, and that he's already run 3:35 (3:35.0 converts to 3:52.2), I don't see 3:50 as out there at all for him. A 2:22 1k target would put him in great position to beat it. I calculate that as 3:48.5 mile pace!

Ok, so now he is gonna run faster than Kessler did last year, who was on way to 3:29.x 5th in Olympics, and 1:43.64? Look at the list of College 3K guys, every guy on it is a better 5K runner proportionately than a miler.

We have differing opinions on this. Running off of 2:22, if they actually run that to 1000 , more like 2:23, when you have never run under 2:20 for 1000 or even 1:46.is not as easy as some on here seem to think. You don't see 3:50 as "out there" for him? It's Out there for anybody in the U.S. 4 guys ever have run under. That ain't many.

We just disagree, Strand is a"miler known for his kick?" By whom? he hasn't really ever beaten anyone of note with it. he was 9th in NCAA final, and 12th in Trials final, 4th Indoors NCAA. I cannot even find an 800M mark for him under 1:49 going two seasons back. I think monster 3K efforts indicate much better 5K talent than 1500, that's all.

We shall see...7;30 indicates 7:30 , and more 5K success than mile/1500 ..not one guy on U.S. or College list other than Nuguse is a World Class Miler/1500 guy. sub 3:50 would be that at this point. 10 guys all time, maybe 11 have ever broken 3:50.00

This is easy analysis, your mile time is just 3k divided by 2, so he should run 3:45.

He closed his 3k like this:

3:56.70 - final 1600m

2:55.72 - final 1200m

1:55.13 - final 800m

54.46 - final 400m

I expect him to run faster than 3:52.5 given that’s less than 6 faster than his close.

Green didn’t have it bc he didn’t have anyone who was pacing him under 350. He won the race and some of his teammates like Prakel and Watson weren’t at their strongest. The best way to do it is at something like Millrose when you got pros in the field anyway.

Ethan Strand runs new indoor mile WR 3:46.93 for the win

Trying to use Strand's 7:30 as the basis for what he can/will run this week is a flawed theory. He ran that 7:30 at the end of last cross country season, then took his break. There's no way to know what kind of shape he's in now, and nobody is instantly back in PR shape.

As we all know, when aiming for PR's and records, being in peak fitness and being race sharp will be the overwhelming factor in the outcome. None of that will be true for Strand this weekend, as opposed to 2-months ago at the end of cross country.

I know what you're saying but he took less than a week off and got right back on it. UNC usually runs well in early indoor

Well he had the perfect storm to break the NCAA record in the 3k, but certainly not to run 7:30, just because the pace was so much slower. 26s last lap, right? He and Wolfe were definitely in shape to challenge Nuguse's AR that day, which now that I say it, maybe he will be close to the WR. 3:50 pace is gonna be too slow to get it I think, but 3:48? Idk on one hand it still feels crazy to say he'd be close at all, but on the other, it's crazy he ran 7:30 with such a fast close. I always saw him as a miler before this year, and from what I remember after he broke the record, he said something like "I think 3k is my best distance right now coming off of XC season", implying once he's in shape for track, he's better at the mile. Could be wrong though. I think Nuguse is certainly better at the mile, so maybe judging off his 3k time isn't the best comparison.

I agree Strand and Murphy seem close to identical. Both big kickers, both made the 1500m OT final, both finished super close there and in XC. Murphy just ran like 3:54 I think, so maybe Strand will be in a similar range, but I think it's more likely they're just in different points in training.

You're right Sahlman has never run 3:52, but he has run 3:33, which is worth ~3:50. Rupp ran 3:50.9i at BU and only 3:34 outdoors. And he's like 21 and had his best XC season ever last year (as did Murphy and Strand, although they were much better). Come NCAAs, I'd bet all 3 of them, plus Green are in sub-3:50 shape (although I'm sure no one tries to go out that fast).

#TRVTHNVKE!