Im an average collegiate runner. If Grant Fisher took a year off could he beat me in the 10,000m?

You have no clue. You say “think of it this way,” and then you just make stuff up. Is this how you get through life? Close enough for government work? Well done but you’re not fooling some of us. Grant Fisher probably cannot break 26:50 today. It is not like he is in the best shape of his life every day. How is he going to run 27:30 after 3 months off? Do you people even think before you post?

Because the OP said Grant gets to "stay active" and if he is doing what I do on the bike, hiking, mountaineering, skiing, playing soccer, swimming, etc. then he isn't going to lose that much fitness.

On days when I do that stuff I feel somewhat guilty because I "didn't go running" but I don't think I am actually losing fitness by climbing 3000' up the side of a mountain with a backpack on. It isn't running, but it is what lots of us do on our "off" days.

Well, I suppose we could still get his own opinion on the question. Next LRC podcast interview maybe...

I think high school xc coach quoting Renato Canova on Bekele just about sums up how I feel about this hypothetical scenario.

When Grant debuts, do you think his time (in the 1500m) will be equal to a sub-27 in terms of IAAF/WA points? I am confident it will be.

Grant is not the kind of guy who gets "out of shape" during January. He'll run something sick like a 3:32 1500m next week and prove me right. He is a mutant.

flotrack.org

Rai Benjamin, Grant Fisher To Race At New Balance Indoor Grand Prix - FloTrack

Ashley Tysiac

Rai Benjamin, Grant Fisher, Marcell Jacobs and more Olympians have been added to competition fields for the 2025 New Balance Indoor Grand Prix on Feb. 2.

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Isn't Grant's coach on these boards?

he would destroy you.

If he didn't do anything close to specific training, you'd absolutely destroy him.

"A 30-minute jog on his first day back can leave him doubled over, short of breath."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390444032404578006274010745406

Something tells me that if Grant Fisher took a year off he wouldn't turn into Chris Barnicle.

I was very surprised with gault on the podcast. Does anyone remember ritz doing the Olympics trials and Olympics off about 50% training when injured. Didn’t break 31 minutes in the trials and a 68 first lap at the Olympics dropped him. To suggest that ritz training at 50 % would get lapped by fisher 2 or 3 times after not training for a year seems absurd.

I can’t remember who I think it was klinger or mantz that said they ran a flat out 400 after their mission and ran 76. Admittedly that’s 2 years off.

There is too much ambiguity in the phrase "active lifestyle" to answer this question, even with the examples given by the OP.

Assuming active lifestyle means walking, occasional hiking, playing casual basketball on a half court, riding the bike for 8min to the shops with no hard breathing, then no. I went from an 18:30 5k to unable to break 26 minutes with just a year off. I couldn't even hold my half marathon race pace for 800m. One year of absolutely no running (or similar cardio) has such a massive effect.

Now if active life style means, playing soccer, playing basketball on a full court (meaning a decent amount of running), riding the bike 30 min to work, walking up stairs/hills 15-flights a day, etc. Then yes. Then he is effectively doing some cross training, and gets enough fitness to destroy the OP.

Also depends how much fat tissue he has under his belt. If he goes on a Morgan Spurlock Super Size Me eating pattern, he’s got no chance.

I think the mental component of running has been over hyped in recent years, but in this scenario I think knowledge and desire are key. Does Grant Fisher know that he will be racing in a year, and does he actually care how fast he will run? If he followed a standard American diet and lived a normal sedentary lifestyle while working a desk job no chance in hell.

Now, if he went on a walk about for a year, let's say something like Andrew Skurka's Great Western Loop, that is a relatively leisurely 33 miles a day of walking - no running - for 200 days linking the Continental Divide Trail and Pacific Crest Trail

andrewskurka.com

Great Western Loop - Andrew Skurka

Andrew Skurka

April to November 2007 I take the further-faster-lighter mantra to its extreme: 6,875 miles, 33 miles per day for 208 days, and an average base weight of about 6 pounds.

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I think Grant Fisher on his first day back to running after a physical and healthy and low stress year might still be able to go sub 29, but it would have to be a year spent very, very far differently than most people live. Maybe if he lived with some goat herders in the mountains of Ethiopia (but even they are likely streaming videos on their phone and eating processed food), with the similar lots of walking and good diet and low stress, then again definitely possible but close call.

Fisher's coach Mike Scannell has weighed in and says he would pick Fisher to win. Fun discussion.

He’s delusional. Does he really think Grant not training is 2 minutes faster than ritz training at 50%. Because we saw ritz couldn’t break 31 minutes with 50% training even with the Olympics on the line