Parker Valby vs Hobbs Kessler: who has more potential?

You are lauding Parker's making it far in a Oly final at only 22.

How old is Kessler? 21 last I looked. If he had gone to college he'd be heading into his senior year.

You say she is not limited two events: HM is not an Olympic or WC event. It's like the 1k, 2k or the 3k. So Kessler can run those first two and might eventually stretch to a good 3k.

Really, Parker has 3 and Kessler has 2, and I don't see Parker being a medal threat at 5k. She'll do great to make the final.

You mention Kessler always having to fend off the new collegiate kid, as if Parker does not have to fend off the next African.

Just because you guys think Parker is hot is not a good reason to overrate her. She will do great if she becomes the best American at any of those 3 distances and fantastic if all three, but she has almost no chance to medal. Obviously, she could improve dramatically. It's possible. And maybe she's a great marathoner or discovers a kick. It's also possible she fizzles out with injuries.

Likewise, we may may ave seen the best of Kessler. In which case he has a Olympic 5th place finish. Which is probably the best Parker can hope for. Again, unless here trajectory is better than expected.

Right now Kessler has delivered more, at a younger age, than Parker. And very few top runners were missing from the 1500. What place would Parker have finished if all the best 10k runners were entered?

You make a lot of good points, but there's one important thing to remember when looking at how Valby and Kessler fared at the Olympics: Valby was coming off a long collegiate year (and a historic one), whereas Kessler was able to gear his whole calendar around making the U.S. team and peaking in Paris. By the time Valby got to Paris, she had already raced more than 200 laps in her final collegiate year + the Trials, on top of what she ran in cross country. That's a lot of racing she had in her legs.

I agree with Peach Pit that Nico Young is the better comparison for Valby. The better comparison for Kessler is Addy Wiley.

Couple things. Valby was 21 during the Olympics. I keep seeing 22 mentioned.

Kessler has been a pro for 3 years, Valby for 3 months. A lot of people on this website have a difficult time seeing the forest through the trees.

Kessler is on the same trajectory as Hocker, was a few years ago.

Sure, okay, one year more or less isn't really the issue.

The problem is, how fast do you think Valby can run in 5000m and 10,000m? I will let you pick any number you want.

And how fast do you think Kessler might run in the 1500m? You can pick any number you want.

Whose numbers are closer to the podium? That is the answer!

Nobody knows the answer to those questions, but I would suggest Kessler is closer to his ceiling than Valby is.

That was not the question I asked. I asked if Kessler's potential 3:28 could get him on a podium? It might! He was 5th at the Olympics with a 3:29!

And I asked if you thought Valby's potential PRs would be able to get on a podium in a few years from now? If Valby could run 30 seconds faster than the current American record in the 10km, would she be winning races?

I know that we don't know but what do you think?

Kessler's already finished top 5 at an International Championships. Valby is never going to do that.

You asked how fast Valby can run 5000/10000. Nobody knows. Ask me again in a few years.

Alicia Monson finished 5th in the 10,000m at the 2023 world championships. Is it really so difficult to imagine that Valby could at least match that?

Valby is Quigley 2.0

This really depends on how you define success.......

If it's Olympic and World titles, then the answer is easy. Hobbs is much more likely to have the more successful career with Olympic and World medals looking likely at some point. Parker has almost no shot at medaling.

If it's US titles and US record holder, then I think this is much more likely to be Parker as she legitimately has a chance to be the best US 5K/10K women's runner of all time. Hobbs is in an event where Americans have the last two Olympic gold medals and he was the 3rd finishing American behind two Americans who are also very young and probably even have more talent than he does.

Parker ran in a direct final in a weaker event. She's nowhere close to the fastest 5000/10000 women. Hobbs had to make it through two rounds before the final and he's close to the leaders in a more competitive event.

Kessler is already way closer to a Podium finish that Valby ever will be, come on now, he was 5th at 21.

Niels Laros and Cam Myers will beat him this year and every year after.

Afterall, Moly medaled in the Olympics, so it is not out of the realm of possibility.

*Molly

That said, the thread topic is lame. Why can’t they both be successful in the sport. And defining “success” can be subjective, to a degree.

I can't believe that anyone would believe that Kessler will be more successful than Valby. It is sort of like saying Centro is more successful than Taylor Swift.

Patrick Mahommes or Jacob Allen, who has more potential. What a useless question.