NXN Girls 2024 Predictions

When did HS fields get so deep??

Looking at that list I'm seeing at least 5 girls even better than Tuohy was senior year.

That's not even close to being true.

Tuohy had an off day at NXN her senior year, but the rest of her senior year xc season she was head and shoulders above any of the girls this year. Tuohy had 4 or 5 races with speedratings of 170+ which is a better xc season than any other girl in history.

Tuohy did better at NXN her sophomore year than her senior year

This list is way off.

No way Sophia Rodriguez finishes 3rd. She'll be lucky to finish in the top 10.

Emily Wisniewski isn't in the same shape as she was last year. She won't finish in the top 5. Maybe 8th to 10th.

And Zariel Macchia is not going to finish ahead of Elizabeth Leachman.

Speed Ratings.

LOL.

Leachman, Hedengren, Engelhardt, Blade, and Ritz are certainly all at Touhy's level.

In last year's class Shea and Michalak both had Touhy level performances.

Prior to that, Cook and Hutchins also ran at that level.

Nothing against Touhy, but the times recorded by hs girls have just really been improving.

On the other hand none of the above emerged to be a dominant figure like Tuohy was. If Ritz or Leachman wins, however, they would suddenly be looking at threepeats next year.

I also would not be shocked if someone currently ranked 5-10 stepped up like Ritz last year and wins.

With course damp, but not soaked, the Touhy course record will be challenged here too.

Elizabeth Leachman won't try to hang with the front pack. Leachman knows that she isn't in as good of shape as Hedengren so trying to run with her wouldn't be a good idea.

Leachman will run somewhat conservatively and then try to pass a bunch of runners in the last mile who went out too fast in the expected muddy rainy conditions. She'll basically do the exact opposite of what she did last year, when she went out too fast and a bunch of girls passed her. Leachman won't make the same mistake 2 years in a row.

Leachman has a good shot to finish top 5 but she won't be able to challenge Hedengren.

The only girl this year that is close to Touhy in xc is Hedengren.

Leachman is much slower than last year because of health problems. The other 3 girls aren't close to Tuohy in xc this year.

Hedengren Ritzenhein Engelhardt Blade - aren't all of these running faster times on the track and better XC races than any HS girl in history? I may not be in the loop enough but I thought I saw each of them breaking records or running insanely fast times.

Tuohy would finish about 5th with this field. I doubt she would win today as a pro.

Leachman was fast on the track last year but she hasn't been healthy the last few months. Ritzenhein just got beat by about 40 seconds at NXR.

Blade set the course record at Woodbridge in September but it was the first year that course was used so obviously it had to be the course record. Plus that course is pancake flat running around soccer fields unlike a true xc course. Engelhardt had one very good race in October but outside of that she hasn't done anything special.

I think that people are forgetting just how good Tuohy was in xc her senior year when she was demolishing course records almost every week.

how about STFU about Tuohy. this thread is about who will win in 2024...

The “Speed Rating” has nothing to do with how fast an athlete actually is, even though the guy that came up with it named it “speed” rating. Unquestionably, there are athletes toeing the line this year that are faster than Tuohy was. So again, to think that Tuohy was faster because she had a considerably higher “Speed Rating” is just further evidence that the SR is biased, and not an indicator of how fast an athlete will complete a race. Facts.

Actually, some of those girls you list are faster than Tuohy was, and consequently above what her level was. And yet, Tuohy has a considerably higher Speed Rating, which is just one clue that “Speed Rating” is a bogus metric to use in comparing the talent level of athletes through the years. Obviously, athlete’s times are going down, meaning they are getting faster, meaning their ‘speeds’ are improving; consequently, a metric that validly evaluated the running talent of an athlete, based upon how fast they can complete a race, I.e., their speed, would have the ratings increase over the years, as the athletes got faster over the years. But the infamous “Speed Rating” has not kept up with the faster times being laid down. This “speed rating” is a misnomer.

Hopefully, my post has laid the argument out cogently enough that most should be able to understand when we say the “Speed Rating” is ‘bogus’.

"unquestionably"? I don't think any of the fastest runners this year have run any of the the same courses Tuohy ran as a senior, so at a minimum that leaves some question. Machia, one of the top runners listed above ran the NXR course 62 seconds slower than Tuohy did as a senior. She was also about 50 seconds slower at the 4K Manhattan invitational than Tuohy was as a senior. But maybe you are so smart you think you can compare times on different courses?

Touhy would destroy every single one if the girls in this field by no less than 60 seconds.

Seems like many people rely on speed ratings to compare runners on different courses. I agree with you that they are idiots.

But yet you think Billy Boy can, when his infamous ‘speed ratings’ have generally not gone up while times have certainly gone down.

You're clueless. Cross country is a 5k race. The only runner in this year's race who is as good as Tuohy in a 5k on the track is Leachman but she's not in top shape right now. So right now she's not faster than Tuohy was.

The only girl in this year's race who has run a Tuohy-like 5k in xc this year is Hedengren in her NXR race. But that was only one race, not multiple great xc races like Tuohy had.

So that's just ONE girl who MIGHT be at Tuohy's level, not multiple girls.