Gary Martin 13th at NCAA XC

1:47/3:35 at 20, plus 13th in this great NCAA xc field, tells me that, awkward form and all, he is going to be much improved in track this year and he is going to run 1:45/3:31/7:35/13:05 before he's done at UVA.

Yep, in that ballpark for sure, if he stays healthy.

His form isn't as bad as people claim. More idiosyncratic than form buster.

One can assume that coaches have tried to clean up his form/technique, but as is often the case, once a certain technique has been instilled over the years, it is virtually impossible to change.

Gary Martin - future U.S. 1500/5000 international runner? Possible.

I think he may hit the upper distance marks. Not the lower. . Murphy is better than him, his 15 PR is not as fast, but he is 5 secs better at 3K and 10 at 5K. And I am not even sure he is running 13:05 this year, Gary has run 7:47 and 13:31 once. You are giving away a lot of seconds in your estimate. Not limiting him, just not giving away 26 at 5K, 12 and almost 5 plus . Thats a lot of giving in the Holiday spirit.

“Murphy is better than him.” Well Murphy was about 7 seconds ahead of Martin on a 10000m cross country course, so yes he is presumably slightly stronger than Martin, but he is also almost 2 years older than Martin.
I said Martin will break 13 in the next 2 years, but I do agree with you that 13:05 might be a bit ambitious for 2025. Martin seems to be on a nice trajectory of improvement, but 13:10 to 13:15 would be more realistic for 2025. As far as the 800m, I have no idea but I wouldn’t be surprised if he broke 1:47 next year, although I am not predicting it.

I get ALL of that, and knew it was coming. And to be fair all of it true. But, again, Gary was a sub 4 minute miler in HS multiple times. he was pretty highly trained. But I ONLY said Murphy is better than him , which is true and I backed into that by saying, I am not sure Murphy is even running 13:05 this year, he might go sub 13:10 on 12/7? I think Gary is really fast and good for his age or any age for that matter, but sub 13 from 13:31? If this is the best he has been above a mile, that XC race? Let's see what he spits out at BU, I would think under 13:20 and I think that would be great.

Yeah I don’t think we are much in disagreement here. Martin may not break 13 ever, or within 2 years, but I think he will based on his rare of improvement, and based on 12:59 no longer seeming quite so daunting as it was 20 years ago. He had a very good cross country season, and this seems like a harbinger of things to come. Part of my appraisal relates to his temperament. He seems like he has what it takes. There are probably 10 US runners in college now who might break 13 one day if things fall into place for them.

Gary is now a 3:48i miler. He is getting there.

If he can tack on only 2.1 more miles in 9:12 that would now give him 13 flat for 5000.

I dvr’d the ACC xc championship and just watched it again last week. The way that Marin ran away from Strand & Wolfe was impressive. Hartman had an equally impressive performance in the women’s race.

Martin *

How are you doing this evening?

Well, another prediction is hitting on the mark already. Do not doubt me, King! :)

He's already run 7:36.09 indoors, just a second above my prediction for him for his UVA career, and he hit 3:33.41 enroute, two seconds off, but the 3:48.82 mile converts to 3:31.87 1500m. So, he's already 1:47.24/3:31.9/7:36/13:31 now. 13:05 is looking like a lock before he's done at UVA, if he tries it, and with this improvement in the mile, which likely derived from the xc training that got him down to 13th, there'll be commensurate improvement in the 800m from the aerobic side (this being a 50%/50% aerobic/anaerobic race). You have to wonder about what kind of heart and lungs this guy possesses to run in that side to side style with the head bobbing and uncertain about where to slot in and so running into lane 2 so much of his races and still run 3:48.82. That is a talent for you.

Been a Martin fan for a minute but I’m hopping on the sub-13 bandwagon now. This crop of NCAA runners seems like a big step up from the ones that were blowing records away just a few years ago (Teare, Nuguse, Nur). Feels like pros have to legit be top 5 in the world if they want a secure spot on the team. Blanks was like 8th at the Olympics coming off an injury and wasn’t even the top collegian at the trials, and the NCAA record holder didn’t even race the 5k.

Great for our medal chances, but I feel kinda bad for all the pros who are good enough to make world finals, and might instead go their whole career without making a team.

What say you now?

NCAA’s XC is a great measure if you can even get All-American it’s impressive. It’s so deep now every guy in the top 15 should be thinking about a pro career. I knew this XC season was gonna convert into a great 1500 for Strand, Martin, and Birnbaum. Basically if these guys bodies were durable enough for more mileage they’d be able to have a 10k/roads career if they wanted. But this endurance couple with their speed turns them into potential medalist for LA ‘28 if they can make the team.

Absolutely! This kid is the real deal.

Now that Gary Martin's run 13:16 solo, the 13:05 I predicted during his UVA career should happen next time he gets in a competitive 5000m race. The effect of competition is worth a lot.

He did run 3:32.03 and 13:16 last track season (in addition to 7:36i). So I think you are underestimating him, and underestimating his potential. That 13:16 was run alone at ACC outdoor.

He is definitely on track to go under 3:30, 7:30, and 13:00 ... it's just a matter of when.

Right on schedule with a 13:05 today.