ThisThisThis wrote:
This. Also, Human Civilisation has been around for 12000 years generously. We've been able to go to space for 60 years. How many years do we really have left, given Nuclear proliferation. The probability of one crazy person not pressing the big red button for the next 88,000 years is pretty much zero. I imagine it would be the same elsewhere.
We will likely have colonized the Solar System within 200 years, and we could colonize the entire galaxy in 88,000 years. Once we establish bases away from Earth, it would be difficult for nuclear weapons to wipe out civilization. If civilizations are common, then a good percentage would probably survive the nuclear war risk, especially given that many of them would be on much larger planets, or fortunate to have a habital moon or another similar planet next door.
Even on Earth, a nuclear war wouldn't end civilization and certainly not wipe out humanity. Any nuclear war in the next 20 - 50 years would likely leave most of the Southern Hemisphere relatively unscathed.
If there is a great filter for advanced civilizations, it's probably that the development of AI always ends badly. In which case, we'll probably find out in the next 10 years or so.
